Assessing noninferiority: Evaluating efficacy of a new treatment without complete data

The FDA released the final guidance on noninferiority trials in November 2016. In noninferiority trials, validity of the assessment of the efficacy of the test treatment depends on the control treatment's efficacy. Therefore, it is critically important that there be a reliable estimate of the control treatment effect—which is generally obtained from historical trials, and often assumed to hold in the current setting (the assay constancy assumption). Validating the constancy assumption requires clinical data, which are typically lacking. The guidance acknowledges that “lack of constancy can occur for many reasons.” We clarify the objectives of noninferiority trials. We conclude that correction for bias, rather than assay constancy, is critical to conducting valid noninferiority trials. We propose that assay constancy not be assumed and discounting or thresholds be used to address concern about loss of historical efficacy. Examples are provided for illustration.     

The Case for Same-Sex Marriage Before the European Court of Human Rights

For proponents of same-sex marriage, this essay sets forward a critical analysis of relevant arguments before the European Court of Human Rights. The privacy aspect of Article 8 European Convention of Human Rights will never be a successful argument with reference to marriage, which involves a public status. The equality argument (Article 14) is useful in addressing this issue with its close connections with citizenship, symbolic value, and proven record internationally. Difficulties remain with the equality argument; its conditional status, the width of the margin of appreciation allocated, and the need for an equality comparator. The equality argument needs reinforcement by use alongside a developing family law argument under Article 8 and a dynamically interpreted Article 12 (right to marry) argument. Ultimately, the success of any argument depends on convincingly influencing the European Court to consider that sufficient consensus has developed among Member States of the Council of Europe.     

融资融券、股价响应速度与异质性

融资融券制度借助融资融券交易提升股价对于市场信息的响应速度并增强异质性,从而提高股票的定价效率。基于所构建的计量检验模型,利用2010年3月31日至2019年12月31日A股市场的交易数据,分析了我国融资融券对于股价响应速度及其异质性的影响。结果发现：在总体上,两融交易的实施及其逐次扩容能够提升标的股票价格对于市场信息的响应速度,却不能使其异质性显著增强;分工具比较来看,牛市中融券交易对于股价响应速度及异质性的提升效果明显强于融资交易,而在熊市中两者对于股票价格异质性的提升作用均会消失;如果缓解非对称性约束,则尽管融券交易对于股价异质性提升没有帮助,却能进一步增强其响应速度。为此,应持续扩大两融标的范围,加强投资者教育,逐步缓解非对称性约束,从而提高股票市场效率。     

中国对东盟出口贸易额的二元边际研究

为了研究中国出口东盟贸易,采用UN Comtrade数据库HS六位编码数据,根据HK分解法计算出口贸易的二元边际,并运用扩展后的引力模型分析其影响因素。为确保结果稳健性,使用PPML进行检验。研究结论显示:中国出口东盟主要沿着集约边际增长,扩展边际对制造业出口贡献更大。中国经济规模、中新自由贸易区协定的签署对二元边际起促进作用,但是东盟经济规模和贸易自由度会阻碍二元边际的增长。     

上市公司履行社会责任的财务困境风险防范效应研究

为提高企业财务安全软边际,降低企业陷入财务困境的风险,选取2009～2019年沪深两市27 022个上市公司为样本,以企业披露的社会责任信息为数据来源,从防范财务困境风险角度实证检验了企业履行社会责任的经济后果。研究认为,企业履行社会责任与财务困境之间存在经济上和统计上都显著的负相关关系,且企业履行社会责任的质量越好,越不容易陷入财务困境; 非国有企业履行社会责任可以对财务困境起到较为显著的抑制作用,而国有企业履行社会责任与财务困境之间的关系相对较弱。研究表明,企业有意识地通过加大履行社会责任的投入和强化社会责任信息披露,主动做好利益相关者管理,建立良性利益相关者关系机制,提高企业财务安全硬边际和软边际,可以有效防止企业陷入财务困境。     

关于个人利益追求之道德判断的思考

对个人利益追求的道德评价,是道德规范体系构建中的重点和难点。这既要选择有说服力的评价标准,又要对评价对象——个人利益及其与社会其他利益关系有清晰的认识。而在个人利益追求过程中根据是否达到＂帕累托＂最佳,可以分为＂简单模式＂和＂复杂模式＂两种状况,进而对其进行正确的道德判断和评价。     

Non-radial profit performance: An application to Taiwanese banks

This research modifies the directional Russell measure (DRM) of Fukuyama and Weber (2009) [1] to decompose the Nerlovian profit efficiency in Chambers et al. (1998) [2] so as to obtain a generalized measure that completely excludes technical inefficiency from allocative inefficiency. Based on such a decomposition, we further develop a new slack-based and profit-oriented productivity indicator, combining the Nerlovian profit measure with the conventional Luenberger productivity indicator (LPI), in order to provide a full picture of the sources of productivity change. Productivity change, based on the profit boundary, is decomposed into four components: the change in technical efficiency; the change in allocative efficiency; the shift of technology; and the price effect from outputs and inputs. This decomposition provides a more complete picture of the sources of productivity change. The above indicator is used herein to measure the productivity change of Taiwanese banks in terms of profit.     

Risk-based decompositions of the meta profit efficiency of Taiwanese and Chinese banks

This study measures the profit efficiencies of Taiwanese and Chinese banks with the assumption that both types could operate under the metafrontier. To consider the risk consideration of banks, we include equity capital as a quasi-fixed input and develop the risk-based measures of the meta Nerlovian profit efficiency. We further decompose meta profit efficiency and gap into technology and allocative efficiencies and gaps. We use 34 Taiwanese banks and 70 Chinese banks in 2011 to empirically measure profit efficiency and its decompositions. Empirical results show that the Chinese state-owned banks perform the best in meta profit efficiency, followed by Chinese joint-equity banks and Taiwanese state-owned banks. These three types of banks are performing better than the other types of banks in Taiwan and China. We also find that Taiwanese private banks perform better in profit and technical efficiencies versus Chinese city banks.     

估算我国保监会对产险业的容许破产概率

根据保险业监管的现行法规和产险业的公开数据,使用copula方法和准蒙特卡罗模拟方法探讨我国保监会对产险业的容许破产概率.通过估算,得到了此容许破产概率为1.28%.该数值对我国的偿付能力监管改革具有基准参照点的意义.最后,文章利用模拟产生的样本点对政策系数与容许破产概率的关系进行了分析.