Age at First Marriage and Age at Death in the Lincolnshire Fenland, 1252–1478

In five Lincolnshire villages between 1252 and 1478 there is evidence that men and women married fairly late before the Black Death, and that by 1348/9 the Western European marriage pattern of late and prudential marriage was well established. Households were usually nucleated; husbands were on average eight years older than their wives before 1348/9, and five years older after 1348/9. Marriages were short: according to the best calculation shorter before 1348/9 than after, most often terminated by the death of the first husband, and were unlikely to produce more than three children. Since there were more males than females amongst children and young adults, many men remained unmarried, but since the death rate of women was very high, men lived longer.     

中国育龄妇女生育集中度变化分析——基于“五普”、“六普”数据

新中国成立以来,结束了上千年的封建制度给妇女带来的桎梏,妇女的社会地位有了明显的提升,具体表现在社会活动的参与率有了显著的提高,同时妇女在生育行为方面也发生了巨大的变化。本文利用最近两次中国人口普查数据来分析育龄妇女的生育集中度变化情况,并以此对中国目前TFR很低的现象做了解释,据此推断中国在未来几年的时间,总和生育率在一定程度上会呈上升的变化趋势,但不可能在短期内回升到更替水平。     

企业诚信与竞争优势的关系研究--基于苏州等六地188家企业的实证调查

本文在综合和提炼了企业诚信与竞争优势的相关理论基础上,将企业诚信分为三个维度,分别是信用水平、品牌、利益相关者信任;将竞争优势分为销售业绩、发展潜力、管理绩效三个维度.本文分析了企业诚信三维度与竞争优势三维度之间的相关和回归关系,研究结论有利于企业诚信建设.     

企业营销道德水准测试的指标体系及评价方法研究

本文是“企业营销道德水准测试及评价系统”课题的前期研究成果。作者首先通过探测性调研确定了影响营销道德水准评价的企业营销行为,并在定量调研基础上将其归并为七个评价营销道德水准的维度,同样还根据定量调研的结果确定了企业营销道德水准的测评方法,为营销道德水准测试与评价系统的建立构筑了重要基础。     

OPTIMAL EXPERIMENTAL DESIGNS FOR MULTILEVEL MODELS WITH COVARIATES

In this paper optimal experimental designs for multilevel models with covariates and two levels of nesting are considered. Multilevel models are used to describe the relationship between an outcome variable and a treatment condition and covariate. It is assumed that the outcome variable is measured on a continuous scale. As optimality criteria D-optimality, and L-optimality are chosen. It is shown that pre-stratification on the covariate leads to a more efficient design and that the person level is the optimal level of randomization. Furthermore, optimal sample sizes are given and it is shown that these do not depend on the optimality criterion when randomization is done at the group level.     

Lot sensitive double sampling plan (lsdsp)

A sampling plan is derived for compliance testing providing consumer protection.     

Contraceptive determinants in three leading countries

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relative importance of access to family planning and the motivation to restrict fertility in determining contraceptive use in three countries that have led the fertility transitions in their regions: Colombia, Tunisia, and Zimbabwe. A structural equations model is estimated where endogenous fertility intentions are allowed to affect contraceptive method use. Simulation methods are then used to quantify the size of the impact of intentions and access on method choice for the three countries. The results demonstrate that even after controlling for fertility intentions, family planning program variables still have important effects in all three countries.     

机构改革背景下的中国计划生育新去向

结合实践对机构改革背景下的中国计划生育未来走向进行了探讨。认为:中国人口形势的根本性变化、计划生育负效应逐渐显现、法外职能拓展过度及职能交叉与计划生育工作特色渐失、自我封闭和思想僵化、未对变化了的人口形势适时作出政策回应是导致人口计生部门被撤并的主要原因。人口计生部门多对突然降临的机构改革缺少必要的心理准备,思想上出现一时混乱实属必然。伴随着机构改革,人口计生工作被弱化、卫生与计生冲突不可避免。而计划生育政策调整以及伴随而来的历史遗留问题的消解是国家卫生计生委与国家发改委将面临的无法回避的新问题。     

在教学中提高A、B级英语考试水平

近几年来,高职高专的英语应用能力考试得到了大大的推广,当下进行的高职教育评估对该项考试的过级率更是提出了更高的要求。对高职高专的英语应用能力A、B级考试做的相关教学探索,实践证明相关的作法实施得到了良好的效果。     

中国人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响研究

本文利用相关年份的《中国统计年鉴》和人口普查数据,根据粗出生率与总和生育率的关系与特征,构建了人口年龄结构系数及其对粗出生率变动影响的贡献率指标,分析了建国以来人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响。研究发现：1949—1979年,人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响很小;1980—1993年,人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响迅速上升,年龄结构的贡献率增大;1994—2008年,人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响趋于下降,人口惯性势能在减弱;2009—2011年,受80—90年代出生高峰的影响,人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响再次凸显,年龄结构的贡献率迅速增大。从年龄别生育率逐年下降的特点,也可以证明近年推动我国人口增长的力量主要是由于年龄结构带来的惯性增长。