Large deviations for Bayesian estimators in first-order autoregressive processes

In this paper we consider first-order autoregressive processes and we allow either centered Normal or exponential innovations. We prove large deviation principles for posterior distributions on the unknown parameter and, motivated by potential applications in risk theory, we also prove large deviation principles for Bayesian estimators of Lundberg's parameter.     

空间整合运作机制探究

本文简述了空间整合这一基本的认知运作过程,探讨了学者们对空间整合运作机制中的空间维度,映射,层创结构,整合与分解的级次,极化,分劈和分割,物质基础的研究和扩充,并从空间整合对语言事实的解释,解释方法,限制因素,支撑数据方面进行了思考,以期对空间整合深入地理解和更好地运用。     

论指挥对合唱作品《大漠之夜》音响层次布局的艺术处理

合唱《大漠之夜》的音响层次布局及艺术处理,直接关系到作品的艺术表现和感染力。为了展示作品丰富的音响内涵,指挥应对作品的旋律线及旋律音程的音响层次、织体层次及音势变化的音响层次进行布局和艺术处理,并对钢琴的音色运用及伴奏特色加以分析。通过这些分析和处理,使作品丰富的内涵及艺术感染力得以充分地展现。     

中国的生育率下降:世纪末回顾

本文对近半个世纪以来中国生育率的下降进行了简要总结和分析。通过与发展中地区,尤其是亚洲国家的对比,说明了中国生育率下降的特点;通过不同的生育率指标来刻画中国生育率下降过程的独特性;最后简要阐述了中国生育率下降的因素。     

生育率变动的综合分析

生育率的变动是各种因素综合影响的结果，这些因素直接和间接作用于生育过程的四个主要环节—性交、受孕、妊娠、分娩，最终影响着生育率的变动。     

Fertility and education premiums

This study examines households fertility variations in response to expected permanent shifts in the return to education. Wage premiums measurethe return to education because their long-run movements are driven by factors exogenous to the fertility process. The results indicate that high education parents fertility responds negatively to changes in the expected return to college and negatively to changes in the expected return to high school. On the other hand, the fertility of low education parents does not vary with changes to expected returns to education. These results can be consistently interpreted within a standard quality/quantity model of endogenous fertility.I am grateful to seminar participants at Penn State University, Virginia Tech. University, the Economic Demography Workshop at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America and the Mid-West Macroeconomics Conference and well as to a helpful referee. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Trends in American family size diversity

Population Research and Policy Review - How diverse is American society and are Americans becoming more or less diverse? Contemporary discussions claim high and increasing diversity, but analyze...     

正交试验设计及其应用

本文简要介绍了正交试验设计的基本原理,通过具体例子说明了正交试验设计在科研及生产实际中的应用.     

Two-sample prediction for progressively Type-II censored Weibull lifetimes

Prediction on the basis of censored data has an important role in many fields. This article develops a non-Bayesian two-sample prediction based on a progressive Type-II right censoring scheme. We obtain the maximum likelihood (ML) prediction in a general form for lifetime models including the Weibull distribution. The Weibull distribution is considered to obtain the ML predictor (MLP), the ML prediction estimate (MLPE), the asymptotic ML prediction interval (AMLPI), and the asymptotic predictive ML intervals of the sth-order statistic in a future random sample (Y_s) drawn independently from the parent population, for an arbitrary progressive censoring scheme. To reach this aim, we present three ML prediction methods namely the numerical solution, the EM algorithm, and the approximate ML prediction. We compare the performances of the different methods of ML prediction under asymptotic normality and bootstrap methods by Monte Carlo simulation with respect to biases and mean square prediction errors (MSPEs) of the MLPs of Y_s as well as coverage probabilities (CP) and average lengths (AL) of the AMLPIs. Finally, we give a numerical example and a real data sample to assess the computational comparison of these methods of the ML prediction.     

On optimality of extremal schemes in progressive type II censoring

In a progressively type II censored life-testing experiment intact units may be removed from the experiment after every failure. If the initial number of units in the experiment and the total number of failures are fixed, the experimenter may choose between different censoring schemes. By specifying an optimality criterion, one may improve the outcome of the experiment by choosing the respective optimal scheme. We establish a simple property of a general optimality criterion that yields optimality of certain extremal schemes. Applications to some criteria that measure the total time of the experiment and its variability illustrate the approach. The results are based on stochastic orderings of generalized order statistics.