Trends in American family size diversity

Population Research and Policy Review - How diverse is American society and are Americans becoming more or less diverse? Contemporary discussions claim high and increasing diversity, but analyze...     

正交试验设计及其应用

本文简要介绍了正交试验设计的基本原理,通过具体例子说明了正交试验设计在科研及生产实际中的应用.     

Parental religiosity and daughters’ fertility: the case of Catholics in southern Europe

Preferences, including preferences for children, are shaped during the formative years of childhood. It is therefore essential to include exposure to religious practice during childhood in an attempt to establish a link between religiosity and fertility. This path has not been explored in the documented literature that looks at the relationship between current religiosity and fertility. The International Social Survey Programme: Religion II (ISSP) provides the data base. It includes information on maternal/paternal/own mass participation when the respondent was a child (nine levels each), as well as on his current churchgoing (six levels) and prayer habits (eleven levels). These variables are included as explanatory variables in ‘fertility equations’ that explain the number of children of Catholic women in Spain and Italy. The core findings are that exposure to religiosity during the formative years of childhood, has a pronounced effect on women’s ‘taste for children’ that later on translates into the number of her offspring. In Spain, the two parents have major opposite effects on women. Most striking is the negative effect of the mother’s intensity of church attendance on her daughter’s fertility: Women who were raised by an intensively practicing mother have on average one child less that their counterparts who were raised by a less religious mother. On the other hand, an intensively practicing father encourages the daughter to have more children (by about 0.8, on average). The Italian sample confirms the statistically significant negative effect of the mother’s religiosity. The father’s religious conduct has apparently no effect on Italian women’s birth rates. Current religiosity seems to be irrelevant, both in Spain and in Italy. It follows that religiosity and fertility are interrelated but the mechanism is probably different from the simplistic causality that is suggested in the literature.

Gendering fertility: Second births in Sweden and Hungary

With the growing prevalence of the dual-earner family model in industrialized countries the gendered nature of the relationship between employment and parenting has become a key issue for childbearing decisions and behavior. In such a context taking into account the societal gender structure (public policies, family-level gender relations) explicitly can enhance our understanding of contemporary fertility trends. In this paper we study the second birth, given its increasing importance in the developed world as large proportions of women remain childless or bear only one child. We focus on Sweden where gender equality is pronounced at both the societal and the family level and on Hungary where the dual-earner model has been accompanied by traditional gender relations in the home sphere. Our analysis is based on data extracted from the Swedish and Hungarian Fertility and Family Surveys of 1992/93. We use the method of hazard regression. The results suggest that the second-birth intensity increases as the combination of parenthood and labor-force attachment of either parent is facilitated. We see this in the effect of family policies in Sweden and in the higher second-birth intensity of couples who share family responsibilities as compared to those with traditional gender-role behavior in both countries. Also, the lack of any visible impact of men's educational attainment in both Sweden and Hungary is probably linked to public policies as state support for families with children has reduced the importance of income for second childbearing. A positive educational gradient for Swedish women and an essentially zero gradient in Hungary reflects the success of policy measures in reducing fertility cost for more educated women in both countries.     

城市流动人口计划生育管理的社区服务模式

我国目前对流动人口实行的防范式行政管理方法,在实际中不易落实,且易引起流动人口的排斥抵触情绪。因此必须针对流动人口的特点,采用计生社区服务模式为主的工作方式,转交流动人口的传统生育观。流动人口计生社区服务模式应着重:以经常性的宣传教育服务为宗旨;以生产、生活、生育服务为主线;注重社区服务的福利性质;以促进城市居民与流动人口沟通为目的。流动人口计生社区服务对于流动人口本身和社区计划生育而言具有很多优势,是以后流动人口计划生育管理服务的发展方向。     

家庭子女养老与个人养老“互补替代”效应：理论与实证

依据生命周期均衡收入分配原理,构建家庭子女养老和个人养老收入分配适度水平及其"互补替代"数理模型,从理论和实证角度研究家庭子女养老和个人养老经济结构优化。研究发现:(1)家庭子女养老和个人养老收入分配存在"替代"关系,而在退休年龄延长的条件下,二者存在"互补"关系;(2)家庭子女养老和个人养老替代的均衡点是家庭有2个子女,随着子女数量的增加,家庭子女养老与个人养老边际替代率递减;(3)伴随老年人寿命的延长,家庭子女养老收入再分配系数下降,个人养老收入分配系数上升且上升幅度大于前者下降幅度;(4)家庭子女养老与个人养老之间的"互补替代"效应呈现为"倒V形"曲线,且其替代的均衡点与总和生育率2.1的更替水平存在契合效应。     

中国农村改革的两大主题及其难点透视

中国近三十年来的农村改革两大主题是通过农村经济体制的改革,再造市场经济的微观基础,使亿万农户成为独立的市场主体;通过农村政治体制的改革,再造基层社会的民主权威,使亿万农民群众当家作主。但由于受到我国城乡二元结构和体制机制的制约,农村生产要素市场缺乏应有的发展,一再拖延了市场经济体制的创建,乡村社会也出现了“治理危机”。下一步,应坚持“整体推进”和“重点突破”相结合的思路,重点推进农地产权制度、民间融资机制、农业科技推广体制和以乡镇机构、农村义务教育体制、县乡财政管理体制为核心的综合改革,为建设社会主义新农村提供体制保障、财力支持和动力源泉,不断增强农村发展的内部活力,不断扩大基层民主政治建设。     

Inference and Optimal Design Based on Step—Partially Accelerated Life Tests for the Generalized Pareto Distribution under Progressive Type-I Censoring

Various types of failure, censored and accelerated life tests, are commonly employed for life testing in some manufacturing industries and products that are highly reliable. In this article, we consider the tampered failure rate model as one of such types that relate the distribution under use condition to the distribution under accelerated condition. It is assumed that the lifetimes of products under use condition have generalized Pareto distribution as a lifetime model. Some estimation methods such as graphical, moments, probability weighted moments, and maximum likelihood estimation methods for the parameters are discussed based on progressively type-I censored data. The determination of optimal stress change time is discussed under two different criteria of optimality. Finally, a Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to examine the performance of the estimation methods and the optimality criteria.     

《新课标》中先锋小说语言解读与层次教学法

先锋小说作为当代小说的开拓者,对其解读千差万别,有时连文学批评家也束手无策。著名先锋作家余华的小说入选高中《新课标》教材后,给教师的教学和学生的学习带来不小的挑战。从语文教学的角度讲,这类作品最大的问题主要是语言问题,引入“层次教学法”,按照文学语言自身的层次规律分析语言,往往能够收到事半功倍的效果。