GIS‐Based Integration of Social Vulnerability and Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Advance Emergency Preparedness,Planning, and Response for Severe Nuclear Power Plant Accidents

In the nuclear power industry, Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is used to estimate damage to public health and the environment if a severe accident leads to large radiological release. Current Level 3 PRA does not have an explicit inclusion of social factors and, therefore, it is not possible to perform importance ranking of social factors for risk‐informing emergency preparedness, planning, and response (EPPR). This article offers a methodology for adapting the concept of social vulnerability, commonly used in natural hazard research, in the context of a severe nuclear power plant accident. The methodology has four steps: (1) calculating a hazard‐independent social vulnerability index for the local population; (2) developing a location‐specific representation of the maximum radiological hazard estimated from current Level 3 PRA, in a geographic information system (GIS) environment; (3) developing a GIS‐based socio‐technical risk map by combining the social vulnerability index and the location‐specific radiological hazard; and (4) conducting a risk importance measure analysis to rank the criticality of social factors based on their contribution to the socio‐technical risk. The methodology is applied using results from the 2012 Surry Power Station state‐of‐the‐art reactor consequence analysis. A radiological hazard model is generated from MELCOR accident consequence code system, translated into a GIS environment, and combined with the Center for Disease Control social vulnerability index (SVI). This research creates an opportunity to explicitly consider and rank the criticality of location‐specific SVI themes based on their influence on risk, providing input for EPPR.     

How to conduct a Narrative Policy Framework study

The Narrative Policy Framework has a growing number of researchers seeking to apply the framework in policy process scholarship. This article is intended to assist those interested in conducting an NPF study that is ‘clear enough to be wrong’ (Sabatier, 2000). While graduate programs offer critical methodological training, this article focuses on the specific application of the NPF to research inquiries about the role of policy narratives in the policy process. We approach our discussion by examining various decisions in the research process and include a detailed discussion of specifying the model and obtaining narrative data. We also point out areas for further investigation.     

老哈河西岸“夏家店下层文化”遗址研究

在中国北方古文化中,夏家店下层文化属于晚期新石器时代文化及早期青铜时代文化,距今4000-3500年。内蒙古赤峰市元宝山区地处老哈河西岸,境内的元宝山花果山夏家店下层文化遗址和原公格营子乡古山发现的几处夏家店下层文化遗址,都有独特的文化内涵,具备了村落群规模。通过对遗址的发掘资料研究可探知,当时这里人口密集,农业、畜牧业、手工制造业非常发达,揭示了该地区北方夏家店下层文化所反映的社会文明发展进程,说明了老哈河流域也是中华北方文明的发源地。     

Analysis of Latin American Fertility in Terms of Probable Social Classes

Theories of demographic change have not paid enough attention to how factors associated with fertility decline play different roles across social classes that are defined multidimensionally. I use a multidimensional definition of social class along with information on the reproductive histories of women born between 1920 and 1965 in six Latin American countries to show the following: the enduring connection between social stratification and fertility differentials, the concomitance of diverse fertility decline trajectories by class, and the role of within- and between-class social distances in promoting/preventing ideational change towards the acceptance of lower fertility. These results enable me to revisit the scope of theories of fertility change and to provide an explanatory narrative centred on empirically constructed social classes (probable social classes) and the macro- and micro-level conditions that influenced their life courses. I use 21 census samples collected between 1970 and 2005 in Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Paraguay.     

进步时代“美国化”的公民教育与反思

20世纪前后,大量东欧、南欧新移民涌入美国城市,受到本土主义者的强烈排斥。＂新＂、＂旧＂移民团体之间的对立,导致美国社会面临撕裂的态势。社会各界广泛参与,共同确立了公民教育的＂美国化＂目标,有效地促进了新移民子女对城市主流文化的了解、对民主思想观念的认同以及对美国主流生活的融入,保障了美国城市化的快速发展及长治久安。进步时代＂美国化＂公民教育的举措,引发了对目前我国农民工及其子女如何融入城市的反思。     

吸收能力的概念及影响因素:文献综述

近年来,吸收能力已成为教育、技术扩散与区域收入差距研究的焦点。本文对国内外文献中吸收能力的概念及主要影响因素加以梳理和总结。最后,指出了相关的政策含义。     

深圳流动育龄妇女生育子女数的影响因素分析

本文利用“深圳市龙岗区流动人口计划生育管理与服务状况”调查数据,设计了4个模型,分别从不同角度对生育子女数、初婚初育、初婚二孩生育和初婚三孩生育的影响因素进行了多因素分析。研究结果表明,早婚和多育之间有正相关关系,它和生育意愿有一定的关联。生育意愿对生育行为的影响是非线性的,它对三孩生育的影响最强。经济收入水平对生育行为的影响很复杂,收入水平提高产生的短期效果可能是促进生育率增长。     

论渐进式双语教学在国际贸易专业课程教学中的运用

通过渐进式双语教学,采用＂渗透—整合—思维＂的步骤,循序渐进地实施国贸专业的双语教学,进而使双语教学与学科教学相互促进。     

Prediction of Times to Failure of Censored Items for a Simple Step-Stress Model with Regular and Progressive Type I Censoring from the Exponential Distribution

The problem of predicting times to failure of units from the Exponential Distribution which are censored under a simple step-stress model is considered in this article. We discuss two types of censoring—regular and progressive Type I—and two kinds of predictors—the maximum likelihood predictors (MLP) and the conditional median predictors (CMP) for each type of censoring. Numerical examples are used to illustrate the prediction methods. Using simulation studies, mean squared prediction error (MSPE) and prediction intervals are generated for these examples. MLP and the CMP are then compared with respect to MSPE and the prediction interval.     

中国人口生育变化及影响因素——基于第六次人口普查的分析

本文在"六普"汇总数据的基础上,定量分析中国人口的生育水平、生育模式的变化和生育变化的影响因素。研究发现,在生育水平持续下降的情况下,结构性因素逐渐成为左右未来中国生育水平走向的决定性因素;生育模式正在向初婚初育间隔扩大,生育孩次向低孩次集中的方向发展;尽管年龄别已婚生育率的变化使得中国一般生育率上升9.613%,在导致生育水平下降的各因素中,育龄妇女年龄结构、婚姻状态等人口因素的影响显得越来越重要。研究结果对于正确理解我国的人口形势,科学地规划和调整人口政策具有十分重要的意义。