On selecting a subset containing the most probable multinomial event

Panchapakesan's procedure is considered for the problem of selectinga subset containing the most probable multinomial event. We use the type-2 Dirichlet integral to express the probability of a correct selection and propose a much simpler proof for the worst configuration. We also show that the supremum of the expected subset size occurs at the equal configuration.     

改良型生物脱氮除磷水处理综述

现有的城市污水处理厂大多采用A2／O工艺，即英文Anaerobic—Anoxic—Oxic第一个字母的简称（生物脱氮除磷）。此法对污水除磷脱氮较为有效，但由于生物脱氮和生物除磷是相互矛盾的，所以其效果仍不理想。在此介绍一种改良的A2／O工艺，能大大改善污水除磷脱氮效果。     

Production seat booking system for the combination of make-to-order and make-to-stock products

This study deals with the problem of the production seat booking system. Like an airline or train booking system, customers' orders are assigned a production seat. Using the production seat booking system, inquiries about the delivery for individual orders can be answered quickly. The key issues in the production seat booking system are: (1) In which manufacturing environments are the production seat booking system appropriate and efficient? (2) How should the production seat be set? (3) How should orders be assigned a production seat? A production planning model is formulated for a production seat booking system with a combination of make-to-order and maketo-stock as production environment. Two kinds of variables are set as policy in the model: one is a variable for setting production capacity and the other a variable for assigning orders a production seat. By focusing on the characteristics of market demand, this paper clarifies the following points: (1) How do these policy variables affect the manufactuiring performance? (2) How does the buffer inventory for make-to-stock product affect the degree of the delivery date satisfaction for make-toorder products? (3) Within what range should the two policy variables be set in order to maintain the unfilled-rate of maketo-stock product under the specified level and the degree of delivery date satisfaction for make-to-order products over the specified level? This paper presents a basis for designing for a production seat booking system through a series of numerical experiments.     

Generalization of the robust bivariate t2 statistic to multivariate populations

The robust bivariate Hotelling–type T² statistics proposed by Tiku and Balakrishnan (1988) is extendend to p–variate (p ≧ 3) populations.     

Admissible tests for the mean with additional information

Let X be a po-normal random vector with unknown µ and unknown covariance matrix ∑ and let X be partitioned as X = (X^′ ₍₁₎, …, X^′ _(r))′ where X_(j)is a subvector of X with dimension p_jsuch that ∑^r _j=1Pj = P0. Some admissible tests are derived for testing H₀: μ = 0 versus H₁: μ ¦0 based on a sample drawn from the whole vector X of dimension p and r additional samples drawn from X₍₁₎, X₍₂₎, …, X(r) respectively, All (r+1) samples are assumed to be independent. The distribution of some of the tests' statistics involved are also derived.     

农村独生子女生育选择影响因素及测度研究——基于Multinomial Logistic模型实证分析

本文基于北京市昌平区的农村独生子女调查数据,利用效用最大化离散选择模型,对农村独生子女生育选择模式及影响因素进行了分析。文章不仅考察了个体因素、经济与社会政策因素对生育选择模式的影响,更重要的是从生育选择的预测概率、离散变化以及Odds Ratios等多角度对影响因素的重要程度、影响大小等进行了定量测度分析。并从中推断起决定作用的因素发生变化时,可能导致的生育意愿、计划与行为的改变,探讨独生子女生育选择对中国未来人口变动趋势产生的影响和政策意义。     

Nonparametric predictive comparison of lifetime data under progressive censoring

In reliability and lifetime testing, comparison of two groups of data is a common problem. It is often attractive, or even necessary, to make a quick and efficient decision in order to save time and costs. This paper presents a nonparametric predictive inference (NPI) approach to compare two groups, say X and Y, when one (or both) is (are) progressively censored. NPI can easily be applied to different types of progressive censoring schemes. NPI is a statistical approach based on few assumptions, with inferences strongly based on data and with uncertainty quantified via lower and upper probabilities. These inferences consider the event that the lifetime of a future unit from Y is greater than the lifetime of a future unit from X.     

非凸条件的单个粘性守恒律的初边值问题解的渐近性态

对具有一条边界影响的的单个粘性守恒律,用L2加权能量方法证明了在初始值为小扰动的情形下,相应的具有非凸条件的初边值问题解的整体存在性及其解渐近收敛到一个稳定波和稀疏波的线性叠加.     

Constraining temptation: How specific and general rules mitigate the effect of personal gain on unethical behavior

Rules are often installed in order to constrain unethical behavior. Rules can be framed either in specific (“Don’t accepts gifts from clients.”) or general terms (“Don’t engage in conflicts of interest.”). The current investigation examines the effect of specific and general rules on unethical behavior and how this effect depends on personal gain resulting from the unethical behavior. The results of three preregistered experiments suggest that both specific and general rules counteract the increase in unethical behavior induced by high personal gain. Although the results were not fully consistent across all studies, specific rules appear more successful in doing this than general rules. In Studies 1 and 3, when personal gain from unethical behavior was (extremely) high, specific rules were more successful in reducing unethical behavior than were general rules. Results of Study 2 suggest that the larger effect of specific rules (compared to general rules) is caused by specific rules preventing people from engaging in moral rationalizations that justify their unethical behavior. A meta-analysis across all studies confirms this overall pattern. This research contributes to theory on rules, ethical codes, and the influence of personal incentives from unethical behavior.     

Recursive computation of inclusion probabilities in ranked-set sampling

We derive recursive algorithms for computing first-order and second-order inclusion probabilities for ranked-set sampling from a finite population. These algorithms make it practical to compute inclusion probabilities even for relatively large sample and population sizes. As an application, we use the inclusion probabilities to examine the performance of Horvitz-Thompson estimators under different varieties of balanced ranked-set sampling. We find that it is only for balanced Level 2 sampling that the Horvitz-Thompson estimator can be relied upon to outperform the simple random sampling mean estimator.