Simple Computation of Maximum Likelihood Estimates in Latent Class Model with Equality and Constant Constraints

A simple computational method for estimation of parameters via a type of EM algorithm is proposed in restricted latent class analysis, where equality and constant constraints are considered. These constraints create difficulty in estimation. In order to simply and stably estimate parameters in restricted latent class analysis, a simple computational method using only first-order differentials is proposed, where the step-halving method is adopted. A simulation study shows that in almost all cases the new method gives parameter sequences monotonously increasing the Q-function in the EM algorithm. Analysis of real data is provided.     

Time Series Modeling of Degradation Due to Outdoor Weathering

Environmental variables have an important effect on the reliability of many products such as coatings and polymeric composites. Long-term prediction of the performance or service life of such products must take into account the probabilistic/stochastic nature of the outdoor weather. In this article, we propose a time series modeling procedure to model the time series data of daily accumulated degradation. Daily accumulated degradation is the total amount of degradation accrued within one day and can be obtained by using a degradation rate model for the product and the weather data. The fitted model of the time series can then be used to estimate the future distribution of cumulative degradation over a period of time, and to compute reliability measures such as the probability of failure. The modeling technique and estimation method are illustrated using the degradation of a solar reflector material. We also provide a method to construct approximate confidence intervals for the probability of failure.     

Beyond the CPI: An Augmented Cost-of-Living Index

This note examines an augmented cost-of-living index (ACOLI) for the purpose of accounting for “augmented consumption” in real-income measures. Well-being includes not only conventional consumer purchases but also goods and services provided by employers, by mandated social regulations, and by tax-financed public goods. Because augmented consumption is often provided in ways that raise prices but not market incomes, deflating with conventional price indexes may understate real income growth. An exploratory application of the ACOLI approach to the United States during the 1960–1997 period suggests that the Consumer Price Index has grown about 19% faster than the ACOLI. This correction would reduce the estimated cost-of-living increase by .47% per year over the last 37 years.     

Determinants of consistent,timely, and active responses in corporate crises

This paper investigates the individual and combined factors affecting the extent to which corporations respond to crisis events consistently, in a timely manner, and actively. The determinants examined include public relations autonomy, legal dominance, strategic orientation, and organizational factors. A survey was conducted of communications mangers, public affairs personnel, and public relations personnel, drawn from the top 500 companies operating in Taiwan. Results indicate that the relative effect of individual sources of influence on crisis response is greatest for situations in which public relations departments have the most autonomy, followed by those where crisis management is handled with a strategic orientation, those where the legal departments dominate, and those where organizational factors provide the main avenue of address. The results emphasize the intriguing role of public relations autonomy by demonstrating its significant impact on providing a consistent, timely, and active crisis response. The strategic orientation of situation analysis also predicts a consistent response, whereas legal dominance predicts strategic ambiguity or inconsistent communication.     

“三合一”型政府管理模式:现实与理论的全景式展示

建设法治型政府、责任型政府和服务型政府是我国政府进行政府改革的有益尝试,是用新的价值取向和路径选择对传统政府管理模式进行根本性或方向性的调整.本文将对这三种政府管理模式作一番现实考量和理论分析,以求正确处理好它们之间的关系,努力彰显出它们在目前我国市场经济发展水平和社会整体发展水平中的本色和个性,并使其相辅相成、相互促进,塑造"三合一"型政府管理模式,可以实现社会理想的崇高意蕴,契合"和谐社会"的构建,这对促进我国经济社会协调发展和全面进步,具有重大的理论和实践意义.     

Assessing the Playing Field: A Prospective Longitudinal Study of Internet Sports Gambling Behavior

Internet gambling is growing rapidly, as is concern about its possible effect on the public’s health. This paper reports the results of the first prospective longitudinal study of actual Internet sports gambling behavior during eight study months. Data include recorded fixed-odds bets on the outcome of sporting contests and live-action bets on the outcome of events within contests for 40,499 Internet sports gambling service subscribers who enrolled during February 2005. We tracked the following primary gambling behaviors: daily totals of the number of bets made, money bet, and money won. We transformed these variables into measures of gambling involvement. We analyzed behavior for both fixed-odds and live-action bets. The median betting behavior of the 39,719 fixed-odds bettors was to place 2.5 bets of €4 (approximately $5.3 US) every fourth day during the median 4 months from first to last bet. This typical pattern incurred a loss of 29% of the amount wagered. The median betting behavior of the 24,794 live-action bettors was to place 2.8 wagers of €4 every fourth day during the median duration of 6 weeks at a loss of 18% of the amount wagered. We also examined the behavior of empirically determined groups of heavily involved bettors whose activity exceeded that of 99% of the sample.     

论全球化时代的阿拉伯妇女问题

本文以2002～2005年的《阿拉伯国家人类发展报告》为基础,分析了阿拉伯国家长期落后的主要原因.作者认为,男女平等是构建民主社会的基本条件,处于全球化时代的阿拉伯国家之所以社会发展严重滞后,主要是因为阿拉伯妇女问题没有得到妥善解决.此外,作者还就如何解决阿拉伯妇女问题提出了建议.     

A Stochastic Goal Program for Employee Scheduling*

Deterministic goal programs for employee scheduling decisions attempt to minimize expected operating costs by assigning the ideal number of employees to each feasible schedule. For each period in the planning horizon, managers must first determine the amount of labor that should be scheduled for duty. These requirements are often established with marginal analysis techniques, which use estimates for incremental labor costs and shortage expenses. Typically, each period in the planning horizon is evaluated as an independent epoch. An implicit assumption is that individual employees can be assigned to schedules with as little as a single period of work. If this assumption violates local work rules, the labor requirements parameters for the deterministic goal program may be suboptimal. As we show in this research, this well-known limitation can lead to costly staffing and scheduling errors. We propose an employee scheduling model that overcomes this limitation by integrating the labor requirements and scheduling decisions. Instead of a single, externally determined staffing goal for each period, the model uses a probability distribution for the quantity of labor required. The model is free to choose an appropriate staffing level for each period, eliminating the need for a separate goal-setting procedure. In most cases this results in better, less costly decisions. In addition, the proposed model easily accommodates both linear and nonlinear under- and overstaffing penalties. We use simple examples to demonstrate many of these advantages and to illustrate the key techniques necessary to implement our model. We also assess its performance in a study of more than 1,700 simulated stochastic employee scheduling problems.     

Marketing Communication Intensity Across Industries

Marketing communication intensity (i.e., the ratio of advertising and promotional expenditures to sales) has been an important topic for both business managers and academics. Here, we investigate cross-sectional and time-series variation of communication intensity due to: type of offering (product versus service) and type of market (consumer versus industrial). Overall, we find that both of these factors affect variation of communication intensity across industries and over time. However, the effect of market type is much more dramatic than the effect of offering type. Such knowledge about patterns in communication intensity levels helps managers make decisions about how much to spend on advertising and promotion.     

Life Satisfaction of Rural Migrant Workers in Urban China: The Roles of Community Service Participation and Identity Integration

Abstract

China is home to approximately 245 million rural-to-urban migrant workers. The influx of migrants into urban areas has posed various challenges for local social service systems. Recently, increasing number of community services have been developed to meet the growing service demands from the migrant population. However, whether increase in community service use results in improved wellbeing among migrant workers remains critically unexplored. As such, this study examines the role of community service use in migrant workers’ life satisfaction and the potential mediating effect of identity integration in Shenzhen, China. Bootstrapped models were adopted to examine relationship among variables. Drawing from a sample of 1,087 rural-to-urban migrant workers, we found that community service use is positively correlated with both identity integration and migrant workers’ life satisfaction. Moreover, identity integration served as a partial mediator between community service use and life satisfaction. The mediating effect of identity integration was found to increase with age. This study highlights that diverse services should be implemented to address divergent needs of migrants in different age groups. Community service can also serve as a vehicle to foster integration among migrant workers in host communities, especially for older age groups. Future studies may further investigate the relationships between community social capital, community social support, quality of community-based organization and frequency of service use so as to optimize the life satisfaction of migrant workers.