Estimation for Continuous Branching Processes

The maximum-likelihood estimator for the curved exponential family given by continuous branching processes with immigration is investigated. These processes originated from population biology but also model the dynamics of interest rates and development of the state of technology in economics. It is proved that in contrast to branching processes with discrete space and/or time the MLE gives a unified approach to the inference. In order to include singular subdomains of the parameter space we modify the MLE slightly. Consistency and asymptotic normality for the MLE are considered. Concerning the asymptotic theory of the experiments, all three properties LAQ, LAN, and LAMN occur for different submodels     

Forest Fire Risk Management and Public Participation in Changing Socioenvironmental Conditions: A Case Study in a Mediterranean Region

Under current conditions of accelerated socioenvironmental change in the Mediterranean forested landscapes, fire is one of the most critical and difficult risks to tackle within the region. This article summarizes the lessons learned from a project based on the participatory integration of qualitative local stakeholders' knowledge with expert GIS fire simulations carried out in the County of El Bages, Catalonia, Spain. First, in this article, a theoretical model--the forest fire circle--is presented in order to explain the reasons for the rise in the damage and frequency of forest fires in this Mediterranean area. Second, it describes the methodology developed and the stages followed during the project. Results show that: (1) the advocacy of old forest reactive management paradigm assumptions and practices based on uncontrolled forest succession can put vast wooded areas of the Mediterranean basin at critical risk; and (2) forest fire management approaches that ignore the crucial role of long-term prevention and local capacity building strategies have failed. In the final section, the content and the specific dimensions of the old reactive paradigm that has characterized forest fire risk management in Catalonia are discussed and contrasted with the possibly emerging preventative paradigm.     

Local Governments Connecting to the Global Economy: Globalization as Catalyst in Governance of East African Cities

This article responds to two questions: first, how are large local governments in East Africa responding to the emerging global economy? Second, is globalization a catalyst in enhancing local governance in Nairobi, Kampala, and Dar es Salaam? The paper is an empirical analysis of strategies adopted by local government organizations in search of meeting challenges brought by a globalization. While there are some similarities in the strategies and processes adopted, the implementation pace varies across the three organizations. At the end, an attempt is made to explain these differences.     

甘青藏区民间工艺的传承与创新——以玛尼石刻和敲铜工艺为例

本文通过对甘青藏区传统民间手工艺中的甘南玛尼石刻和青海湟中敲铜工艺的田野考察,对两类民间工艺的制作工艺、宗教信仰背景、生产模式、文化内涵等方面做了详细分析,并且对甘青藏区的传统民间工艺在新时代的活态传承进行反思。     

数字经济的地方法治试验:理论阐释与实践路径

数字经济的异军突起,给作为治理体系和治理能力重要依托的法治秩序带来了挑战,也产生了全新的法治需求。面对新出现的“治理赤字”,如何提供优质的“法治产品”,构建有助于数字经济发展与治理的法治秩序,成为当务之急。但数字经济作为一种新生事物,高度依赖科技创新,处于不断创新、发展与变化之中,具有创新性、跨界性、虚拟性以及平台性等典型特征,由中央层面进行统一的法治供给面临诸多现实困难,也无法有效激活地方数字经济创新与发展的动力。为此,中央通过《国家数字经济创新发展试验区实施方案》,选择在部分地方进行数字经济创新发展与治理的试验,鼓励试验区加强体制机制创新和地方性法规探索。此背景下,数字经济领域的法治建设,除了由中央统一推动诸如《个人信息保护法》《数据安全法》等基础性法律制度的供给外,地方政府以法治试验的方式接入部分法治供给在理论层面何以可能,在实践层面是否具有现实基础、面临那些挑战以及如何克服,便成为不得不重视的问题。基于此,文章借助逻辑推理和实证分析方法,对数字经济领域地方法治试验的理论基础和实践路径进行了探索。研究发现,数字经济的地方法治试验,是一种有效回应数字经济法治需求的经验性治理方式。其...     

论地方高等教育与区域经济协调发展

随着社会经济的快速发展,高等教育与区域经济的关系越来越密切,高等教育不仅是教书育人,而且是推动经济发展的重要力量.地方高等教育与区域经济的发展也不是简单的决定与被决定的关系,而是一种相互促进、共同发展.即区域经济为地方高等教育提供物质保障,地方高等教育为区域经济发展提供智力支持和技术保障.     

地方高校科技创新组织静态博弈分析

地方高校是我国重要的科技创新力量,是区域创新体系的核心组成部分.将高校内部从事科技创新的组织分为两类,即科技创新正式组织与非正式组织,通过静态博弈分析深入探讨了在完全信息和非完全信息情况下两者的合作竞争战略.     

青海话中的词缀"头"

青海话中的词缀“头”除了有与汉语普通话词缀“头”相同的特点外,还能够放在动词词根和形容词词根语素的后面,构成一个新的名词,表示某事是否值得做或必要性的主观评价,也可以指对象或状态;这种方式构成的名词是一个开放的系统,只存在于具体语境之中。文章还进一步探讨了这种用法的起源,并与其它方言中的词缀“头”作了对比分析。     

略论青海与中亚国家的贸易关系

中亚国家独立不久,青海与中亚国家的贸易关系就已展开,然而,至今双方之间的贸易关系仍然在低水平徘徊。分析青海与中亚国家发展贸易的条件,进而积极寻求拓展二者之间贸易关系的对策具有重要意义。     

从《边城》看沈从文乡土小说的诗画特征

自称是"乡下人"的沈从文,在现代中国文学史上算得上一个风格独特的文人。他执著追求与表现的是那种纯真的带有某种原始意味的人性美和人情美,在山清水秀的湘西边地苦苦地构筑他的理想人生形态,抒发了他对湘西下层劳动人民的深厚感情。沈从文的这类小说被称为"乡土抒情小说",《边城》就是其中最优秀的代表。