Fitting competing risks data to bivariate Pareto models

This paper revisits two bivariate Pareto models for fitting competing risks data. The first model is the Frank copula model, and the second one is a bivariate Pareto model introduced by Sankaran and Nair (1993 Sankaran, P. G., and N. U. Nair. 1993. A bivariate Pareto model and its applications to reliability. Naval Research Logistics 40 (7):1013–1020. doi:10.1002/1520-6750(199312)40:7%3c1013::AID-NAV3220400711%3e3.0.CO;2-7.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We discuss the identifiability issues of these models and develop the maximum likelihood estimation procedures including their computational algorithms and model-diagnostic procedures. Simulations are conducted to examine the performance of the maximum likelihood estimation. Real data are analyzed for illustration.     

Children and global social policy: Exploring the impact of international governmental organisations

Axford N. Children and global social policy: exploring the impact of international governmental organisations International governmental organisations (IGOs) seek to influence child welfare policy and practice in individual sovereign states. But do they succeed and, if so, in what way? This article outlines the nature of selected IGOs' work, explores the nature of their impact and seeks to explain the pattern that emerges. It also notes areas for further research.     

An Inquiry into Liberty,Slavery, and Thomas Jefferson’s Place in American Memory

Abstract

This article presents a guided inquiry into Thomas Jefferson’s place in American memory. It centers on Jefferson’s liberty-based articulations and his involvement in slavery, which are paradoxical when juxtaposed. Evocative primary sources and competing secondary sources ground the inquiry. Discipline-specific strategies direct students through the stages of inquiry. Close reading, text-based writing, and informed action intertwine with history literacy, historical thinking, and historical argumentation. Discussion focuses on logical curricular extensions.     

Whither practice-near research in the modernization programme? Policy blunders in children's services

In this article, we lament the effects of practice-distant research and associated policy initiatives on contemporary children's services in England. In the last decade, as a result of high profile inquiries into non-accidental child deaths, statutory children's social care services in the UK have been subject to a wide-reaching ‘modernization’ programme. We studied decision-making in the high blame environment of local authority children's services. Our research sought to examine the relationship between performance management and the impact of anticipated blame within the decision-making practices of those providing, supervising and managing these services. We show that systems and technologies can be developed which both assist the users in their daily work and achieve desired organizational goals, but without an ethnographically informed, practice-near approach, unsafe work regimes and practices can ensue.     

A Social and Historical Perspective of the San Francisco Gay Men's Chorus

ABSTRACT

This study sought to understand the various roles music played for gay men who were members of the San Francisco Gay Men's Chorus, the world's first gay men's chorus. Specifically, it answers the following questions: What is the demographic profile of the chorus members? How has the chorus shaped or reflected social issues; how has the chorus shaped or reflected political issues; how has the music evolved over time?; How was the chorus impacted by the HIV/AIDS epidemic? Historical information for this study was gathered through eight interviews of original and long-time choral members as well as the current artistic director. Interviews were conducted in San Francisco at the San Francisco Gay Men's Chorus office, and additional data were derived from programs of previous choral concerts, two questionnaires (Internalized Homophobia Scale and Gay Chorus Questionnaire), and observations of choral rehearsals and concerts. As a follow-up to a previous study documenting the formation of the chorus in 1978–1982, this study historically documents the chorus's evolution from 1983 through 2003, emphasizing the chorus's impact on social and political issues, the musicality of the chorus, and the impact of HIV/AIDS on the chorus.     

冯铿寻求女性解放道路的心路历程

潮籍革命女作家冯铿的创作始终贯穿着一条关注女性命运、寻求女性解放道路的主线。冯铿的作品序列展示了她寻求女性解放道路的心路历程,从早期强烈呼吁社会为正在遭受苦难的女性"快谋救护的法子",到批判像"一团肉"似的所谓的"时代女性",指明女性"最后的出路"是参加革命,认为真正的新女性是"把自己是女人这一回事忘掉干净"的革命女性。     

超声波提取胡椒中有效成分条件优化

试验研究温度、时间、超声波频率对超声波-食用乙醇提取胡椒有效成分的影响,以胡椒粗提取物的提取率为指标,正交实验确定较适宜提取条件为,温度55℃、时间55 min,超声波频率60 KHz,胡椒粗提取物的提取率为4.29%.     

区域碳锁定的判定研究--以云南省为例

通过建立包括陆地、湿地和海洋的碳承载力、碳超载率的计算模型，采用供需平衡法建立了区域碳锁定时间和趋势的判定模型。以有着“植物王国”和“基因宝库”之称以及水电资源相对丰富的云南省为例，对该省的碳锁定时间、趋势进行了实证研究。实证分析结果显示，云南省自2002年后开始出现了碳锁定现象且趋势越来越严重，若不进行强有力的外界干扰，这种趋势将一直延续下去。结合即使“十一·五”低碳目标的完成也没能减轻云南省碳锁定加剧的趋势，提出把减轻碳超载、控制能源消费总量、提升碳承载力纳入低碳经济发展的目标管理。     

Extending social security coverage to the rural sector in China

In late 2009 China launched an innovative, voluntary programme that by 2011 had extended pension coverage to 326.4 million people in the rural sector, including contributors and beneficiaries. It requires one contribution per year and provides a flat‐rate benefit and a contributions‐related benefit through a contributory individual account, with a government guarantee that the benefit will continue for life. The programme encourages participation of persons who do not pay income taxes, and thus have no tax incentive to participate, by providing substantial government subsidies. As a further incentive, old‐age benefits are provided to older parents when all their adult children participate in the contributory programme.     

伊拉克战争与公众参与中国中东外交政策制定

伊拉克战争为公众参与中国中东外交政策制定提供了机会,参与群体前所未有地扩大,参与途径全面拓展,不同意见的表达开始涌现,公众主动对外交建言献策,开始有意施加民意压力。更为重要的是,公众意见开始成为外交部门对外传播国家主张的背景支撑和参考因素。公众因素开始成为中国制定中东外交决策时需要考虑的重要参数之一,但其影响力有限,更多是参考和制约作用,其影响正处于发展之中。