SOVEREIGNS VERSUS BANKS: CREDIT,CRISES, AND CONSEQUENCES

Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One interpretation speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet and worries about the risks of lax fiscal policy. However, the two may interact in important and understudied ways. This paper examines the co‐evolution of public and private sector debt in advanced countries from 1870 to 2012. We find that in advanced economies financial crises are not preceded by public debt build‐ups nor are they more likely when public debt is high. However, history shows that high levels of public debt tend to exacerbate the effects of private sector deleveraging after financial crises. The economic costs of financial crises rise substantially if large private sector credit booms are unwound at times when the public sector has little capacity to pursue macroeconomic and financial stabilization.     

Natives and migrants in the London labour market, 1929–1931

Migrants are sometimes regarded as marginal workers in metropolitan labour markets. London has long been a major destination for migrants from elsewhere in Britain and abroad. In this paper we examine the earnings and unemployment experience in 1929–1931 of male workers who migrated to London, or within London. We use data from the New Survey of London Life and Labour, a large survey of working class households, the records from which have recently been computerised. Our findings indicate that migrants were not marginal, in fact they enjoyed slightly higher earnings and lower unemployment incidence than native Londoners. Much of the advantage can be explained by differences in average skill levels and personal characteristics. Received: 2 November 1999/Accepted: 3 August 2000     

ECOLOGY,TRADE, AND STATES IN PRE‐COLONIAL AFRICA

State capacity matters for growth. I test Bates' explanation of pre‐colonial African states. He argues that trade across ecological boundaries promoted states. I find that African societies in ecologically diverse environments had more centralized states. This is robust to reverse causation, omitted heterogeneity, and alternative interpretations of the link between diversity and states. The result survives including non‐African societies. I test mechanisms connecting trade to states, and find that trade supported class stratification between rulers and ruled. I underscore the importance of ethnic institutions and inform our knowledge of the effects of trade on institutions.     

EXPANSIONARY AUSTERITY? INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE

This paper investigates the short‐term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in OECD economies. We examine contemporaneous policy documents to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to prospective economic conditions. Using this new dataset, our estimates suggest that fiscal consolidation has contractionary effects on private demand and GDP. By contrast, estimates based on conventional measures of the fiscal policy stance used in the literature support the expansionary fiscal contractions hypothesis but appear to be biased toward overstating expansionary effects.     

论新四军的美术创作

抗战期间,新四军积极吸引美术人才,在军队和根据地进行美术创作：包括木刻、油画、布画创作,宣传画、油印画、画传单,举办画展,出版画报,进行工艺、服装、舞台美术设计,建筑设计等。新四军美术创作活动,配合了抗敌斗争,服务于根据地经济建设,提高了军民的文化水平,扩大了新四军的影响。     

“V在了N”格式补说三题

占勇（2009）认为＂V在了N＂是现代汉语新兴格式;其实,此格式在明代萌芽,清代成熟,并非新兴格式;占勇不同意邢福义的＂类推＂说法,认为＂V在了N＂格式是语法化的结果;我们认为,＂V在了N＂格式既有语法化的动因,也有＂类推＂的原因。     

副名结构：语言中的新构式

依据构式语法理论,对副名结构的产生进行了分析。认为副名结构的产生是构式引申的结果,其动因是出于丰富表达手段的需要;副形结构,或者说汉语中已经存在的＂很X＂构式,是副名结构产生的基础,使得进入该结构的名词发生语义游移,从而突显其隐含的性状义;而这一语义操作的语言机制则是语言中普遍存在的转喻现象。     

浅谈新兴字母词＂N＂

"N"已日渐成为当今的流行词语,甚至可作为汉语句子的构成成分进入句子构建过程,具有多种用法和很强的涵盖力。在功能上与汉语的程度副词"很"有着密切的联系,有一定的接受基础。     

THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF THE PROTESTANT REFORMATION: TESTING THE WEBER HYPOTHESIS IN THE GERMAN LANDS

Following Max Weber, many theories have hypothesized that Protestantism should have favored economic development. With its religious heterogeneity, the Holy Roman Empire presents an ideal testing ground for this hypothesis. Using population figures of 272 cities in the years 1300–1900, I find no effects of Protestantism on economic growth. The finding is precisely estimated, robust to the inclusion of various controls, and does not depend on data selection or small sample size. Denominational differences in fertility behavior and literacy are unlikely to be major confounding factors. Protestantism has no effect when interacted with other likely determinants of economic development. Instrumental variables estimates, considering the potential endogeneity of religious choice, are similar to the OLS results.     

论艾森斯塔特阐释多元现代性的逻辑

艾森斯塔特通过对自马克思及韦伯以来的社会进化理论的质疑和批判，对纷繁复杂的现代性历史的反思，采用比较历史（文明比较）的研究方法考察了现代性从起源、传播到成型的动态变化过程和发展方向，揭示了现代性沿着多样性特征展开的逻辑。他认为理解当代世界最好的方法是将它视为文化方案多样性不断解释、选择、重释、构建和重构的一个过程。理解现代性多样性的特征对于认识当今世界及其发展方向、认识具体社会的特殊现实，在理论和实践上都具有深远的意义。