Rational Inattention Dynamics: Inertia and Delay in Decision‐Making

We solve a general class of dynamic rational inattention problems in which an agent repeatedly acquires costly information about an evolving state and selects actions. The solution resembles the choice rule in a dynamic logit model, but it is biased toward an optimal default rule that is independent of the realized state. The model provides the same fit to choice data as dynamic logit, but, because of the bias, yields different counterfactual predictions. We apply the general solution to the study of (i) the status quo bias; (ii) inertia in actions leading to lagged adjustments to shocks; and (iii) the tradeoff between accuracy and delay in decision‐making.     

论理性与人文的失衡及其对西方哲学的影响

从古希腊时期至黑格尔,人文精神由于西方哲学固有的理性化特点而始终处于劣势地位。理性精神独大的事实及其带来的严重问题,使西方人在惊慌失措中寻找失落的人文精神。     

产业规制中的决策行为及其属性——一个解说政府和厂商行为的分析框架

现有的关于产业规制中的政府和厂商决策行为的分析和研究,受理性经济人范式的影响极为深刻,它通常以效用最大化为原则将政府和厂商的行为属性理解或描述为理性决策.其实,无论是产业规制中的政府立法、司法和执行的实际运作,还是垄断性或竞争性厂商对规制政策的应对,都或多或少存在着非理性决策的成分,并且其决策行为在一定程度上会偏离效用最大化.规制经济理论的发展离不开对政府和厂商的决策行为及其属性的研究,而研究决策行为属性则需要有可行的分析路径.如果我们在评说规制经济学相关理论的基础上能对政府和厂商的行为属性有创新式理解,将有助于规制理论框架的重塑.     

全球化进程中的中国文学选择

随着全球文化共识的达成 ,世界通用语言符号的形成和电子传媒在文学上的广泛应用 ,文学全球化的进程就会加快。文学全球化对中国文学而言 ,既是机遇也是挑战。面对全球化的挑战 ,中国文学应理性地审视把握 ,通过与外民族文学自觉的交流和借鉴 ,坚持文学个性 ,创造文学精品 ,增强自己在全球范围内的文学竞争能力 ,使世界更好地了解中国 ,使中国文学及早走向世界     

“气”与“能”：《新理学》与《论道》之比较研究

《新理学》之“气”与《论道》之“能”都是没有任何规定性的“纯料”。“气”的使用弥补了《新理学》形上本体“理之无能”,“能”的自性能动则保证了《论道》之“可能界”到“个体界”的顺利过渡。“气”与“能”的使用反映出通过强化逻辑分析法而建立形上学体系,虽然在很大程度上克服了中国传统哲学“逻辑意识不发达”的不足,使其形上学体系表现出概念清晰、逻辑严密的特色,但其中也存在一些不可克服的问题。     

Reflections on rational choice—The existence of systematic irrationality

The behavioral challenge to the rational choice paradigm is oriented toward individual decision-making. Behavioral irrationality does not mean chaos. Most irrational behavior involves the exercise of reasoning. In reality, decision makers do not behave with full knowledge and/or optimal computational power in pursuit of maximizing expected utility. Besides reviewing critiques to the rationality paradigm for judgments and preferences and exploring the impact of culture on people's economic behavior, this paper is the first to call the attention of researchers to the phenomenon of systemic irrationality. Irrationality may exist at the aggregate or societal level, a conclusion based on the observation that large segments of the population are incapable of making decisions in accord with traditional rationality—groups such as those who have a psychiatric disorder, those who are taking medications, those with limited intelligence, those from the lower social classes, children and adolescents, and the elderly. Even those who are not included in the aforementioned groups, but who take medications for medical conditions may have their decision-making impaired to some extent. Therefore, it is argued that rationality in economic decision-making may be the exception rather than the norm.     

独善其身:诗人理性深永的心灵超悟

从独善其身诗篇产生的社会心理可知，有不少诗人正是通过追求山水林野之美来追求独立于封建伦理规范之外的人生理想。诗人对于自然界的崇高感觉就是对于自身行为的崇敬，而经由某种暗换赋予了一自然界对象。独善其身的诗人往往从内向的默省中体味人生，他们的诗篇中往往既表现了对官场的厌倦，又表现出对黑暗现实的愤懑之情。     

Die Umstellung auf ökologische Landwirtschaft

Utilizing data from a recent postal survey of farmers in western Germany (n=657), this paper studies the influence of environmental concern on environmental behaviour in a rational choice context. The analyses reveal both an indirect and a direct effect of environmental concern. First, environmental concern increases the preference for environmentally friendly consequences leading to a higher expected utility of environmentally friendly alternatives. Second, even controlling for the influence of utility expectations, environmental concern increases the probability of environmentally friendly behaviour, indicating a direct influence over and above the indirect effect. The direct effect of environmental concern, however, can be observed only if environmentally friendly action alternatives are associated with higher behavioural cost than environmentally degrading alternatives. Apart from that, the effect of environmental attitudes is not moderated by utility considerations and the cost structure of the respective alternatives. In sum, these results do not lend support to the low cost hypothesis.     

Comment

Using postwar annual data through 1987 from 46 countries, we confirm our earlier finding that the maximum impact (χ) of monetary shocks on real output is negatively correlated across countries with the variance of such shocks (σ ) [the Lucas proposition (LP)]. This holds whether the time series specification for each country is the one we reported in Kormendi and Meguire (1984) (KM), one selected by a Bayesian pretest (BPT) suggested by Poirier's results, or a uniform specification that nests both. Using the LP to restrict the coefficients of monetary shocks in the real output equation significantly improves forecasts of real output growth over the period 1978–1987. Over the same period, predictions of money and real output growth made from the BPT specifications often do not outperform comparable predictions made from the KM specifications.     

Matrix‐Exponential Distributions: Calculus and Interpretations via Flows

By considering randomly stopped deterministic flow models, we develop an intuitively appealing way to generate probability distributions with rational Laplace–Stieltjes transforms on [0,∞). That approach includes and generalizes the formalism of PH-distributions. That generalization results in the class of matrix-exponential probability distributions. To illustrate the novel way of thinking that is required to use these in stochastic models, we retrace the derivations of some results from matrix-exponential renewal theory and prove a new extension of a result from risk theory. Essentially the flow models allows for keeping track of the dynamics of a mechanism that generates matrix-exponential distributions in a similar way to the probabilistic arguments used for phase-type distributions involving transition rates. We also sketch a generalization of the Markovian arrival process (MAP) to the setting of matrix-exponential distribution. That process is known as the Rational arrival process (RAP).