决策黑箱:现代投资决策理论新探

现代金融学关于经济主体投资决策的依据问题存在两种截然不同的观点,传统金融学基于理性预期认为投资主体决策的依据是信息;而行为金融学则从非理性出发认为主体决策不仅依据信息同时还由心理和情感因素决定。由于金融市场中投资主体理性选择与非理性选择的同时存在,在承认理性选择行为的同时,暗含着对非理性选择行为的默认,认为投资决策是一个存在"决策黑箱"的心理过程,投资主体依据理性还是非理性主要由主体情绪和信息获得与处理的复杂程度决定,对于相同的信息投资者根据当时的市场环境得出不同的判断,导致证券价格也会有不同的表现,决定集群行为的大数定律最终会发挥作用。     

人民币均衡汇率测算模型研究中的相关问题

 人民币均衡汇率水平问题已成为国内外各界关注的焦点,对人民币均衡汇率水平的研究不同学者其估计结果不相一致,至今没有统一观点。本文以人民币均衡汇率测算为核心,对与之相关的均衡汇率的定义与内涵、影响因素等相关问题进行了综述,并在此基础上对均衡汇率测算的主要模型进行了综述,由此得到研究我国人民币均衡汇率测算中还存在许多研究空间。并得到均衡汇率测算研究结果不同主要是由于对均衡汇率的定义和确定的影响因素不同等方面所造成的,因而对人民币均衡汇率测算的方法也各异。     

中小企业群落结构合理性研究：一个理论探析

企业群落内的企业既竞争又合作 ,竞争能促进创新和产业的发展 ,合作则可以提高资源配置效率、节约交易费用、减少风险等等。尽管合作易伴生机会主义行为 ,但企业群落能得以正常运行 ,是因为企业群落是一个可选择并联耦合系统。企业群落功能的发挥需要企业群落结构具有一定的合理性。并不是只要有相当数量的相关行业的企业集中在一起 ,就能形成企业群落 ,也并不能简单地说企业数量越多越好 ,关键还在于 ,分布在各专业和层次上的企业数量要呈一定的比例     

Situational Crime Prevention and Its Discontents: Rational Choice and Harm Reduction versus 'Cultural Criminology'

In this journal, in 2007, Keith Hayward criticized situational crime prevention (SCP) and rational choice. The main thesis was that SCP cannot tackle expressive crimes of anger, hostility and excitement. The secondary thesis was that this was because the rational choice perspective cannot account for intangible aspects of offender decision-making. Hayward's cultural criminology was offered as better explaining expressive and other crimes. The present article suggests fundamental issues may have been overlooked. Some of the many ways SCP applies to expressive and irrational crimes, and how readily they fit into the choice framework, are outlined, and a preliminary critique of Hayward's cultural criminology is offered.     

后形而上学思想与作为生存本身的艺术之思考——海德格尔艺术思想浅论

艺术问题是和人与宇宙之间的关系这个问题紧密相关的。在西方传统的理性观念中,它预设着“理念”和“主体”等认知范畴,因此形成了在本质上以现代人本主义为基础的现代审美艺术观。海德格尔一反这种理论传统,力图在人与宇宙之间重建一个非人本主义为中心的意义空间,因此提出了一种天、地、人、神共在的艺术观,这种艺术观在质疑现代主体性观念的同时,使人们以一种新的眼光来思考人与自然之间的生存关系,对于深思现代人的生存状况来说具有深远的启发性。     

Using simulation to develop testable functionalist explanations: a case study of church survival

Many arguments for and against functionalism have revolved around logical and methodological issues, discouraging attempts to develop testable functionalist theories. This paper takes a different approach, arguing that the problem with sociological functionalism is not its logic of explanation but the absence of appropriate techniques for formalizing functionalist theories. The solution presented --agent-based simulation --is illustrated by a case study: a functionalist account of church survival. The case study suggests that there is nothing wrong with the logic of functionalism properly formalized, illustrates how simulation can enable testing of functionalist explanations and suggests why existing sociological methods have not proved fruitful for this task. In the light of new techniques like simulation, the current neglect of functionalism may no longer be justified.     

Applying to college: Do information deficits lower the likelihood of college-eligible students from less-privileged families to pursue their college intentions?: Evidence from a field experiment

Information deficits are considered an important source of why students from less-privileged families do not enroll in college, even when they are college-eligible and intend to go to college. In this paper, we examine whether correct and detailed information on the costs of and returns to higher education increases the likelihood of college applications of less-privileged high school graduates who expressed college intentions in their junior high school year. We employ an experimental design with a randomly assigned 25-minute information treatment about funding opportunities for, and returns to, higher education given at Berlin schools awarding university entrance qualifications. Our analyses show that our information treatment indeed substantially increases the likelihood of treated less-privileged students to apply to college. Our study indicates that our low-cost provision of financial information not only increased their college knowledge but also substantially changed their college application behavior, despite other existing barriers, like economic constraints.     

Reward interventions: A strategy to Erode social inequality?

Decades of research illuminates how status beliefs about socially significant characteristics, like gender, fundamentally alter expectations about individual's competence and worth. This process biases opportunity structures and resource distributions, thereby recreating social inequalities in a self-fulfilling fashion. Many social and organizational policies attempt to reduce inequality by increasing disadvantaged groups' access to valued rewards, such as prestigious alma maters, awards, and valued positions. In addition to meaningfully increasing resources, the status these rewards convey should also theoretically increase the status of the particular people who come to possess them. To know whether inversions to reward structures reduce social inequality, however, we must first demonstrate that the status value of rewards alone is an effective intervention. In an experimental test of interventions to gender status inequality, reward markers with relatively higher or lower status value were consistently or inconsistently associated with the gender of the participants' task partners. Results indicate that rewards intervened in the groups' gendered status hierarchy as participants were more likely to be influenced by their partners' rewards than their gender.     

C472. The expected value of a conditional variance: An upper bound

The article derives Bartlett corrections for improving the chi-square approximation to the likelihood ratio statistics in a class of symmetric nonlinear regression models. This is a wide class of models which encompasses the t model and several other symmetric distributions with longer-than normal tails. In this paper we present, in matrix notation, Bartlett corrections to likelihood ratio statistics in nonlinear regression models with errors that follow a symmetric distribution. We generalize the results obtained by Ferrari, S. L. P. and Arellano-Valle, R. B. (1996). Modified likelihood ratio and score tests in linear regression models using the t distribution. Braz. J. Prob. Statist., 10, 15–33, who considered a t distribution for the errors, and by Ferrari, S. L. P. and Uribe-Opazo, M. A. (2001). Corrected likelihood ratio tests in a class of symmetric linear regression models. Braz. J. Prob. Statist., 15, 49–67, who considered a symmetric linear regression model. The formulae derived are simple enough to be used analytically to obtain several Bartlett corrections in a variety of important models. We also present simulation results comparing the sizes and powers of the usual likelihood ratio tests and their Bartlett corrected versions.     

Statistical estimation for a failure model with damage accumulation in a case of small samples

A failure model with damage accumulation is considered. Damages occur according to a Poisson process and they degenerate into failures in a random time. The rate of the Poisson process and the degeneration time distribution are unknown. Two sample populations are available: a sample of intervals between damages and a sample of degeneration times. The case of small samples is considered. The purpose is to estimate the expectation and the distribution of the number of damages and failures at time t. We consider the plug-in and resampling estimators of the above mentioned characteristics. The expectations and variances of the suggested estimators are investigated. The numerical examples show that the resampling estimator has some advantages.