Do Markets Favor Agents able to Make Accurate Predictions?

Blume and Easley (1992) show that if agents' have the same savings rule, those who maximize the expected logarithm of next period's outcomes will eventually hold all wealth (i.e. are ‘most prosperous’). However, if no agent adopts this rule then the most prosperous are not necessarily those who make the most accurate predictions. Thus, agents who make inaccurate predictions need not be driven out of the market. In this paper, it is shown that, among agents who have the same intertemporal discount factor (and who choose savings endogenously), the most prosperous are those who make accurate predictions. Hence, convergence to rational expectations obtains because agents who make inaccurate predictions are driven out of the market.     

有理真分式分解为部分分式导数法

对有理真分式当分母具有n重实根时分解为部分分式的方法进行研究,并给出两个在有理函数积分中具有实用价值的推论。     

Uncertainty,pluralism, and the knowledge-based theory of the firm: From J.-C. Spender’s contribution to a socio-cognitive approach

J.-C. Spender’s award-winning, knowledge-based theory of the firm is based on four premises: (1) The firm can be sufficiently understood as a system of knowledge, (2) explicit and implicit knowing can be clearly dissociated, (3) organizations are conceived as cognizing entities, and (4) intuition shaped by shared cultural practices is a superior source of managerial knowledge. This line of reasoning represents a social constructionist view of the enactment, transfer, and storage of knowledge according to which managerial knowledge is largely tacitly shaped by industry recipes and the firm’s socio-cultural conventions and other social processes. Although comprehensive in scope, we argue that a knowledge-based theory of the firm needs to integrate a cognitivist approach that includes the synergetic production of tacit and explicit knowledge, the role of reflective thinking in resolving strategic uncertainties, and the interaction between the individual and the social. This socio-cognitive theory of the firm posits that sustained competitive advantage of a firm is founded on the ability to align knowledge internally within the firm as well as externally with its stakeholders through the individual sense-making of feedback from other individuals.     

The Bubble Game: An Experimental Study of Speculation

We propose a bubble game that involves sequential trading of an asset commonly known to be valueless. Because no trader is ever sure to be last in the market sequence, the game allows for a bubble at the Nash equilibrium when there is no cap on the maximum price. We run experiments both with and without a price cap. Structural estimation of behavioral game theory models suggests that quantal responses and analogy‐based expectations are important drivers of speculation.     

在读女研究生怀孕问题的分析与思考——以“理性选择理论”为视角

本文在对141份样本统计分析的基础上，揭示了在读女研究生怀孕的动因及在校研究生对此类事情的不同认识与态度，并进一步从理性选择理论的视角出发表达了笔者对此问题的思考与看法。     

浅谈90后职业学校学生现状及教育管理

本文结合90后职业学校的学生特征及原因分析,从班级管理和学生个性发展等方面提出,要在课堂管理、师生互动等上建立新型的师生关系成为职校学生教育管理的发展方向和有效途径。     

Learning in the Allais paradox

Whereas both the Allais paradox, the first empirical challenge of the classical rationality assumptions, and learning have been the focus of many experimental investigations, no experimental study exists today into learning in the pure context of the Allais paradox. This paper presents such a study. We find that choices converge to expected utility maximization if subjects are given the opportunity to learn by both thought and experience, but less so when they learn by thought only. To the extent that genuine preferences should be measured with proper learning and incentives, our study gives the first pure demonstration that irrationalities such as in the Allais paradox are less pronounced than often thought. Paul Anand and Stefan Trautmann made helpful comments.     

直觉的辩证法--中国哲学思维的特征

直觉的辩证法是中国传统哲学的一大特征,它不像西洋哲学的逻辑辩证法那样追求严格推理,以证明概念的逻辑关系,而是追求一种精神境界,如儒家的"天人合一"、道家的"独与天地精神往来"、佛学的"般若智",都是要人超越有限的生命以达到无限的精神境界.宋明理学的儒、道、佛三教合一的心性修养和"仁者与天地万物一体"的精神,现代新儒家的直觉为体、理智为用都体现着一种重视宇宙人生的自觉精神.     

Lottomania and other anomalies in the market for lotto

This research is concerned with the determination of the demand for “lotto” in Israel. While an important focus of our research is upon the effects on the demand for lotto of ticket pricing and jackpot announcements, we also investigate several empirical phenomena that are apparently inconsistent with expected utility theory. These include an effect we call “lottomania” which is induced by rollover, and “prize fatigue” when the jackpot does not increase. Another aberration from expected utility theory is that the underlying odds of winning have no measurable effect on sales.     

体悟哲学追求普遍理性的韵味———基于古希腊哲学家关于世界本原的论述简

在古希腊哲学中,最初具有普遍理性或终极普遍理性思想的哲学是阿那克西曼德提出的“无限者”学说,而巴门尼德的“存在论”则奠定了哲学追求普遍理性的最初根基。另外,柏拉图的“理念论”、毕达哥拉斯的“数”,以及古希腊“原子论”学派的实体实在论也都具有哲学所追寻的普遍理性的韵味。