FISIM核算之参考利率的比较与选择

现有核算体系中,间接测算的金融中介服务（FISIM）出现核算漏洞,致使SNA内部出现核算的不一致性以及FISIM负值。因此,SNA（2008）建议参考利率应反映存贷款的风险和期限结构。随之,国际与欧洲FISIM工作组探讨了各种经风险和期限调整的参考利率以改进FISIM核算,包括加权参考利率、匹配参考利率、长短期双参考利率、中点参考利率与SNA建议的参考利率。为了检验他们在中国的适用性,本文从利率的波动性、FISIM负值发生的可能性以及对FISIM生产与使用造成的影响等方面,对这些参考利率进行实证检验。研究发现,期限调整方面,加权参考利率与长短期双参考利率相对稳定,发生FISIM负值的可能性也较小。其中加权参考利率更为简单,实践操作性也更强。中国账面价值参考利率在稳定性、FISIM负值、风险调整方面都有着比较优势,缺点是没有考虑参考利率的期限调整。     

试论鲁迅文学创作中的象征主义及其艺术特征

对鲁迅文学创作中的象征主义的理解应从艺术思维的整体意义去把握,而不能仅从艺术手法去理解.本文从这一理念出发,通过对贯穿鲁迅小说及散文诗的铁屋子与狂人、希望与虚妄、示众与看客三组二元对立的意象的剖析,具体探讨鲁迅文学创作中的象征主义及其艺术特征.     

文外指称与语篇连贯

本文通过分析一名英语专业本科生的毕业论文中代词we的文外指称,指出文外指称不一致,导致语篇在一定程度上的不连贯,而文外指称的不一致是因为作者叙述的心理视点的游移.     

浅议美术资料室文献的保护

本文从美术资料室文献保护的意义出发 ,分析了美术文献损失的自然原因和社会原因 ,提出了美术文献保护的措施     

高等院校系属资料室如何提高功能问题初探

本文论述了高等院校系属资料室的独特作用 ,并从加强统一管理 ;提高技术管理手段 ;优化收藏结构 ;改进服务方式 ,提高服务质量 ;提高资料人员素质是当务之急五个方面论证了提高资料室效能的对策     

LMS方法及其在流量数据中的应用

LMS模型是分析生长发育最常用的方法之一。本文详细阐述了LMS模型的构造原理;基于流量数据提出了费希尔信息矩阵与惩罚贝叶斯后验对数似然算法两种模型算法;利用中国健康营养调查（CHNS）1989-2011年中9年的流量数据,以所提出的LMS曲线算法为基础,通过计算BMI（Body Mass Index）绘制生长发育曲线研究我国青少年儿童生长发育情况和中年人健康问题。研究结果表明：1989-2011年间,我国0~18岁年龄段青少年儿童BMI中位数提高5%左右,生长发育高峰期有提前趋势;中年人群BMI中位数提高了10%左右,2000年后55周岁以上中年人体质差异有增大趋势。     

Bayesian analysis for a stress-strength system under noninformative priors

Noninformative priors are used for estimating the reliability of a stress-strength system. Several reference priors (cf. Berger and Bernardo 1989, 1992) are derived. A class of priors is found by matching the coverage probabilities of one-sided Bayesian credible intervals with the corresponding frequentist coverage probabilities. It turns out that none of the reference priors is a matching prior. Sufficient conditions for propriety of posteriors under reference priors and matching priors are provided. A simple matching prior is compared with three reference priors when sample sizes are small. The study shows that the matching prior performs better than Jeffreys's prior and reference priors in meeting the target coverage probabilities.     

Semiparametric estimation of regression quantiles with application to standardizing weight for height and age in US children

The appropriate interpretation of measurements often requires standardization for concomitant factors. For example, standardization of weight for both height and age is important in obesity research and in failure-to-thrive research in children. Regression quantiles from a reference population afford one intuitive and popular approach to standardization. Current methods for the estimation of regression quantiles can be classified as nonparametric with respect to distributional assumptions or as fully parametric. We propose a semiparametric method where we model the mean and variance as flexible regression spline functions and allow the unspecified distribution to vary smoothly as a function of covariates. Similarly to Cole and Green, our approach provides separate estimates and summaries for location, scale and distribution. However, similarly to Koenker and Bassett, we do not assume any parametric form for the distribution. Estimation for either cross-sectional or longitudinal samples is obtained by using estimating equations for the location and scale functions and through local kernel smoothing of the empirical distribution function for standardized residuals. Using this technique with data on weight, height and age for females under 3 years of age, we find that there is a close relationship between quantiles of weight for height and age and quantiles of body mass index (BMI=weight/height²) for age in this cohort.     

Reference priors for shrinkage and smoothing parameters

A reference prior and corresponding reference posteriors are derived for a basic Normal variance components model with two components. Different parameterizations are considered, in particular one in terms of a shrinkage or smoothing parameter. Earlier results for the one-way ANOVA setting are generalized and a broad range of applications of the general results is indicated. Numerical examples of application to spline smoothing are given for illustration and the results compared with other well-known techniques considered to be “non-informative” about the smoothing parameter.     

Helping consumers with a front-of-pack label: Numbers or colors?: Experimental comparison between Guideline Daily Amount and Traffic Light in a diet-building exercise

This paper contributes to the debate on front-of-pack nutritional labels. Because of their dissimilar formats, Guideline Daily Amount (GDA) and Traffic Light (TL) may trigger different responses among consumers. While GDA is comprehensive and cognitively demanding, information is coarser and more salient in TL. We implement an incentivized laboratory experiment to assess the relative performance of GDA and TL labeling schemes in assisting consumers to build a healthy daily menu. Participants must compose a daily menu, choosing from a finite set of products, and are paid a fixed cash amount only if the menu satisfies pre-determined nutritional goals. Goals correspond to achieving the Guideline Daily Amount values of 1 (kcal), 4 (kcal, fat, sugar, salt) or 7 (kcal, fat, sugar, salt, fiber, vitamin C and calcium) different nutritional attributes. Three different labels, GDA, TL and a combined GDATL are provided. Results show that GDA performs better than TL when subjects do not face time constraints. When time is limited however, TL and GDA have identical efficacy with 4 nutritional goals, and TL even outperforms GDA with 7 nutritional goals.