Semiparametric distribution forecasting

Given m time series regression models, linear or not, with additive noise components, it is shown how to estimate semiparametrically the predictive probability distribution of one of the time series conditional on past random covariate data. This is done by assuming that the distributions of the residual components associated with the regression models are tilted versions of a reference distribution.     

中国美学的历史演变及其时代特征

中国古代美学精神主要是一个由以味为美、以心为美、以道为美、以文为美构成的复合互补系统。以之来考察中国美学历史演变轨迹及其不同时代特征,可发现先秦两汉是中国美学的奠基期,以味为美、以心为美、以道为美、以文为美的美论奠定了中国美学的坚实基础,各家美学完成了初步建构。魏晋南北朝是中国美学的突破期,情感美学与形式美学取得重大突破,诗文美学摆脱依附走向独立。隋唐宋元是中国美学的发展期,儒家道德美学重新收复失地、形成主潮,同时形式美学、表意美学也旁枝侧出,增光添彩。明清是中国美学的综合期,涌现了众多总结性的美学论著。近代是中国美学的借鉴期,美学走出原来的依附形态,走上了独立的学术行程。从现代到当代,则可视为中国美学向现代科学美学的转型期。     

Dynamics of adolescents’ life satisfaction and effect of class rank percentile: Evidence from Korean panel data

This study investigates the dynamics of adolescents’ life satisfaction and the effects of academic success on life satisfaction using the Korean Youth Panel Survey (KYPS) 2003–2007 data. Unlike previous studies, our dynamic ordered probit models allow for persistence in life satisfaction which is attributable both to unobserved individual heterogeneity and to state dependence. First, we find that strong state dependence exists in adolescents’ life satisfaction, that is, current life satisfaction is significantly affected by the previous state. Second, we show that academic success undoubtedly has a positive effect on adolescents’ life satisfaction even after controlling for state dependence. Finally, we present that there exists an interesting gender difference: boys show stronger persistence in the state of high life satisfaction, whereas girls have stronger persistence in dissatisfaction.     

网上联合参考咨询为吉林省中小企业服务实证研究

开展网上联合参考咨询是高校图书馆运用现代科学技术为地方经济服务的必然趋势,其优势明显,作用巨大.因此,要实现东北老工业基地振兴,推动吉林省经济快速发展,提高中小企业的竞争力,就必须高度重视网上联合参考咨询工作.这就要求,一方面,要转变中小企业的思想观念和经营理念,增强企业情报意识;另一方面,高校图书馆应主动为地方经济服务,实现其社会功能.     

对"汉字屋论证"逻辑结构的五种诊断模式

美国哲学家J.R.塞尔(Searle)于1980年提出的"汉字屋论证"(Chinese Room Argument,以下简称为CRA)目前早已成为人工智能哲学的经典话题之一。二十七年以来,反驳CRA的学者往往致力于揭露CRA本身的形而上学前设的错误,却不太去检讨CRA本身的逻辑形式。而美国学者郝泽(Hauser)与英国学者丹普尔(Damper)虽然就CRA的逻辑形式提出了总计四种诊断模式,却都没有正确地揭示出CRA的真正错误。本文将在他们的基础上提出对于CRA逻辑结构的第五种诊断模式,并由此论证:CRA之所以失败,乃是因为塞尔并未根据该论证的内在要求而在"汉字屋系统"与"计算机系统"之间建立起一种恰当的同构关系来。     

“五四”新文学的现代话语

从现代性入手 ,探讨了“五四”新文学在西方文艺思潮的影响下 ,如何互动、整合、重构本民族文学 ,从而揭示了中国新文学走向和汇入世界文学格局的历史进程     

欧美儿童照顾社会政策的发展及借鉴

20世纪70年代以来,儿童照顾问题在西方社会由个体家庭责任演变为普遍的社会需求,被置于国家、市场和家庭关系的政治话语中。面对新的儿童照顾安排需求,欧美国家发展出亲职假、公共儿童照顾服务和经济支持三种途径来重新分配儿童照顾的任务、成本和责任。儿童照顾政策不仅影响妇女的劳动力参与,还与儿童的福利水平高低密切相关。确立照顾权利是公民社会权利的重要组成部分,建构一个由国家、市场、志愿组织和家庭共同提供的"混合照顾"体系,改变照顾工作在家庭内部不平等的性别分工以及把儿童照顾政策作为解决其他社会问题的政策工具都是值得中国借鉴的经验。     

Tolerance intervals for symmetric location-scale families based on uncensored or censored samples

Exact methods for constructing two-sided tolerance intervals (TIs) and tolerance intervals that control percentages in both tails for a location-scale family of distributions are proposed. The proposed methods are illustrated by constructing TIs for a normal, logistic, and Laplace (double exponential) distributions based on type II singly censored samples. Factors for constructing one-sided and two-sided TIs for a logistic distribution are tabulated for the case of uncensored samples. Factors for constructing TIs based on censored samples for all three distributions are also tabulated. The factors for all cases are estimated by Monte Carlo simulation. An adjustment to the tolerance factors based on type II censored samples is proposed so that they can be used to find approximate TIs based on type I censored samples. Coverage studies of the approximate TIs based on type I censored samples indicate that the approximation is satisfactory as long as the proportion of censored observations is no more than 0.70. The methods are illustrated using some practical examples.     

真值条件意义理论视阈中指称问题的演变

指称概念不仅是语言哲学的基本概念,更是意义理论中的核心问题。在早期真值条件意义理论中,指称成为意义理论研究的阿基米德点。早期的真值条件论者弗雷格和罗素认为,语言表达式所具有的意义是因为它们直接指称外部实在中的事物。在戴维森提出的系统的真值条件意义理论中,他对指称概念的解释并未直接向名称或谓词与对象的关系指派经验内容。指称在戴维森真值条件意义理论中的基础性作用被消解。指称从意义理论研究的阿基米德点蜕变为纯粹语义学的设定。指称概念的消解与蜕变是从早期逻辑原子主义的微观语义分析到戴维森整体语义理论构建必然的逻辑结果。     

基于账户参考利率的FISIM对GDP与收入分配的影响研究

本文从使用者成本的角度解析参考利率，并根据2008年SNA构建用于中国FISIM核算的账户参考利率，利用实际数据核算并分摊现价FISIM总产出；借鉴联合国国民经济核算工作组关于FISIM价格指数的思想，结合中国存贷款特点，构建存贷款服务价格指数，并缩减现价FISIM。最后，分析现价 FISIM对 GDP与收入分配的影响，并探究不变价FISIM对实际GDP的影响。综观核算与分析结果，住户部门分摊的FISIM与净出口分摊的FISIM，会增加GDP。各机构部门的初次分配总收入、可支配总收入也因增加值、财产收入及经常转移等的变化而相应变化。不变价FISIM对经济增长波动率的影响大于其对经济增长率的影响。