锚定比率可以衡量股价高估吗？——基于崩盘风险视角的经验证据

股价高估指的是公司市场价值超出其内在价值的现象,但如何衡量内在价值一直存在争议。借鉴行为金融文献中锚定效应的概念,结合中国资本市场的特殊性,本文提出了锚定比率(简称"RPR")这一新的股价高估指标。为了证实该指标的有效性,本文利用事后的股价崩盘风险进行了相关检验。结果表明:第一,锚定比率与股价崩盘风险正相关;第二,更少的分析师跟踪、更多的散户持股以及更高的股票流动性均会强化锚定比率对股价崩盘风险的影响;第三,在控制常用的股价高估指标、两类代理问题和管理层"捂盘"行为后,本文的结果依然成立;第四,利用崩盘事件,本文证实了锚定比率会加剧股价下跌的程度,且长期来看股价会保持"惯性"而非"反转"。本文的研究表明投资者做决策时对股价高点存在明显的锚定效应,丰富了锚定效应在中国资本市场中的运用。更重要的是,本文提出了一个可能更适合于中国资本市场的股价高估指标,该指标意味着资本市场定价机制的不完善是导致股价高估和频繁崩盘的重要原因,这对于改善资本市场定价效率、降低股价崩盘风险有一定的启示作用。     

浅析高校院系资料室为学科建设服务的途径

本文系院就资料室文献资料的建设和开展多层次信息服务等,探索其为学科建设服务的有效途径。     

汉语语篇中间接回指的认知研究

本文主要从认知语用的角度来研究汉语短篇小说中间接回指的释义问题。通过结合认知语法的概念参照点模型和关联理论,提出了一套可以综合处理各种间接回指的释义原则。     

Reference priors for exponential families

Reference analysis, introduced by Bernardo (J. Roy. Statist. Soc. 41 (1979) 113) and further developed by Berger and Bernardo (On the development of reference priors (with discussion). In: J.M. Bernardo, J.O. Berger, A.P. Dawid, A.F.M. Smith (Eds.), Bayesian Statistics, Vol. 4, Clarendon Press, Oxford, pp. 35–60), has proved to be one of the most successful general methods to derive noninformative prior distributions. In practice, however, reference priors are typically difficult to obtain. In this paper we show how to find reference priors for a wide class of exponential family likelihoods.     

Ehrenberg law-like relationship and anthropometry

Summary. Ehrenberg presented the simple law-like relationship log( w )=0.8 h  + 0.4 ± 0.04 between the weight and height of children aged 5–13 years. Several researchers have confirmed that this relationship holds, irrespective of the child's ethnic, racial, gender and social class. In anthropometry, a weight–height relationship is used to measure the nutritional status of children. For this purpose, the World Health Organization have adopted the National Center for Health Statistics population as the international reference population. The relationship between the World Health Organization–National Center for Health Statistics anthropometric standards and Ehrenberg law-like relationship is examined. Differences between the weight-for-height relationship in anthropometry and the law-like relationship between weight and height for children are small and can be attributable to functional differences. It is found that an Ehrenberg law-like relationship can be extended to include children who are under 5 years old. Criteria for using the law-like relationship to assess the nutritional status of these children are thus suggested. The criteria are evaluated using anthropometric data of a sample of 513 children from a rural district of Botswana. The results indicate that the proposed method of using the law-like relationship to assess nutritional status is much simpler and at least as reliable as the existing methods in anthropometry.     

反思与融汇：王韬与格致书院改革

王韬是近代中国先进的知识分子之一,他既通晓儒学,又深悉西学。晚年的他在格致书院进行了教育改革实践,他不断地反思当时中国教育的弊端,吸取了西方先进的教育主张,在教育改革的过程中,取得了较大的成就:重构知识体系,扩充格致学科;调整教学策略,整合先进的教学方式和方法;创立新型学业考核制度——考课制。王韬的这些教育改革主张具有一定的现实意义。     

船舶油污损害赔偿责任限制的国际立法及对我国之借鉴

船舶油污损害赔偿责任限制是海商法中的一项比较独特的法律制度。本文首先介绍和评价了有关船舶油污损害赔偿责任限制的国际条约及美国和加拿大等国的相关立法,通过分析船舶油污损害赔偿责任限制的条件,并结合我国的司法实践指出了我国现有立法的不足,最后提出了我国借鉴国外立法的途径。     

美、加公共管理领域非学位教育的借鉴意义

本文就美、加高校在公共管理领域从业人员非学位教育方面的特色从培训计划、方法、师资和评估四个方面进行分析, 对其借鉴意义进行了探讨。     

文化力量与非主流人群的教育策略奥格布文化参照框架差异理论述评

美国少数民族学业成绩的多样性是美国教育面临的最大困境。本文试图通过介绍和评价美国教育人类学家奥格布的文化参照框架的差异理论对这一问题的解释和对策,以期为解决我国民族教育发展不平衡问题提供某些借鉴。     

从五星聚房与帝辛占星陶文看武王克商日（公元前1018年2月22日）

帝辛占星陶文记载金星的白天出现和中国传统星座二十八宿的角宿,帝辛占星陶文证明《宋书·天文志》等的帝辛末期五星聚房记录。在夏商周断代工程报告中,中国政府对于公元前1019年9月17日五星聚房事实的确认,证明了《史记》和帝辛占星陶文的记录是准确的,同时也证明武王克商的甲子日为公元前1018年2月22日。