新时期我国价格波动的主要影响因素及发展趋势

十一五期间我国主要价格指数均呈现出较快上升后快速回落的特点,但与上世纪八九十年代相比,我国价格波动趋于平缓,价格波动的影响因素也在发生变化:农副产品和资源性产品价格对价格总水平的影响加大,国际传导因素日益突出。随着我国主要农产品、资源性产品对国际市场依赖程度的进一步提高,国际市场初级产品价格波动加剧,十二五我国价格水平将呈现前低后高,温和上涨的趋势。     

古代汉语中物量表示法的发展演变

物量表示法是数量表示法的一个重要组成部分,弄清物量表示法在古代汉语各个时期的面貌及其发展演变,有助于汉语史的研究。本文探讨了古代汉语各个时期的物量表示法及其发展演变状况。     

Symbols Build Communication and Thought: The Role of Gestures and Words in the Development of Engagement Skills and Social‐emotional Concepts during Toddlerhood

Social skills and symbol skills are positively associated in middle childhood, but the relation between these domains is less clear in newly verbal toddlers. Vygotsky proposed that symbols are both tools for interaction and mental tools for thought. Do symbols help even very young children build skills for interacting with and conceptualizing the social world? Longitudinal data from 108 children and mothers were collected when children were 14, 24, and 36 months. Children's gestures and words during mother–child interactions were used as symbol skill indicators to predict children's abilities to engage others and the number of social‐emotional concepts children portray during play. In a series of growth models, words had a stronger effect on engagement skills whereas early gesture use predicted later development of social‐emotional concepts. Therefore, even in early development, symbols serve as both communication tools and mental tools to construct understanding of the social‐emotional world.     

以人为本的社会属性与实现途径

中国共产党创立的科学发展观,强调核心是以人为本,其中的“人”是全体人、多需人、多代人。社会主义制度从根本上铲除了人的劳动成果异化为奴役人的工具的社会基础,人民群众成为社会的真正主人,中国共产党除了人民群众根本利益以外,没有任何特殊利益,这就为人的自由全面发展开辟出广阔的实现途径。     

Modelling change in cognitive understanding with finite mixtures

Psychological theories often posit the existence of several different states. Individuals are viewed as belonging to one of the states at a given age, but with development pass to another state. A main problem in evaluating such theories is representing the transition from one state to another over age. A stochastic transition framework is proposed which should be useful in many different settings. The model is illustrated with data from a cognitive development task.     

加强师德建设 提高师德修养

本文认为加强师德建设,一方面要着重搞好职业理想宣传教育,加强领导作风建设,以及从严治教,测评量化管理;另一方面在于师德修养,坚定师德信念,坚持理论与实践相结合,以及自我教育、自我完善。     

从供应链分析探讨传统出口型外贸企业的发展战略

从分析传统外贸企业在国际供应链中的地位入手,研究了传统外贸企业的现有功能和功能扩展空间,从而提出传统外贸企业应该坚持加强供应链管理、加强战略合作伙伴关系的建设,并努力实现信息化的战略发展方向。     

Non-parametric estimation of data dimensionality prior to data compression: the case of the human development index

In many applications in applied statistics, researchers reduce the complexity of a data set by combining a group of variables into a single measure using a factor analysis or an index number. We argue that such compression loses information if the data actually have high dimensionality. We advocate the use of a non-parametric estimator, commonly used in physics (the Takens estimator), to estimate the correlation dimension of the data prior to compression. The advantage of this approach over traditional linear data compression approaches is that the data do not have to be linearised. Applying our ideas to the United Nations Human Development Index, we find that the four variables that are used in its construction have dimension 3 and the index loses information.     

Rethinking Print Periodicals Holdings Retention Policy in Small Academic Libraries

Abstract

Collection development policies in small academic libraries may lack a formal policy statement about print periodical holdings retention. However, there is a need for a distinct policy about print periodicals holdings and their retention. Periodicals collections at academic libraries have been greatly affected by publishers’ decisions to discontinue print journal formats and move to online-only electronic versions. The move from one format to another produces challenges to the retention of an effective print periodicals collection. Given these continuous changes in publication format, it is necessary for academic libraries to rethink their print periodicals holdings retention. This article will present a literature review on and case study of periodicals collection management and explore strategies for developing holdings policies and guidelines for retention. It will argue that collection development policies ought to include a separate policy for the print periodicals collection and that unlike their reputation for being time-consuming and inflexible, periodical retention policies can improve flexibility and guide in decision making, helping to preserve core titles and acquire new titles that support academic programs and the work of the college community.     

Time-varying clustering of multivariate longitudinal observations

Abstract

We propose a statistical method for clustering multivariate longitudinal data into homogeneous groups. This method relies on a time-varying extension of the classical K-means algorithm, where a multivariate vector autoregressive model is additionally assumed for modeling the evolution of clusters' centroids over time. Model inference is based on a least-squares method and on a coordinate descent algorithm. To illustrate our work, we consider a longitudinal dataset on human development. Three variables are modeled, namely life expectancy, education and gross domestic product.