Culture‐Inclusive Theories of Self and Social Interaction: The Approach of Multiple Philosophical Paradigms

In view of the fact that culture‐inclusive psychology has been eluded or relatively ignored by mainstream psychology, the movement of indigenous psychology is destined to develop a new model of man that incorporates both causal psychology and intentional psychology as suggested by Vygotsky (1927). Following the principle of cultural psychology: “one mind, many mentalities” (Shweder et al., 1998), the Mandala Model of Self (Hwang, 2011a,b) and Face and Favor Model (Hwang, 1987, 2012) were constructed to represent the universal mechanisms of self and social interaction that can be applied to any culture; both models can be used as conceptual frameworks for analyzing mentalities of people in any given culture. Taking research works from Foundations of Chinese Psychology: Confucian Social Relation as exemplars (Hwang, 2012), this article illustrates how to construct culture‐inclusive theories of Confucianism by multiple philosophical paradigms. The mechanism of culture‐inclusive theory can be applied to explain qualitative research findings on lifeworld events of people in a particular society. It can also be utilized to predict results of quantitative research conducted to verify theoretical propositions in the scientific microworld by empirical methods.     

随机效应空间滞后单指数面板模型

对随机效应空间滞后单指数面板模型,本文构建了该模型的截面极大似然估计方法,从理论证明和数值模拟两方面分别考察了其估计量的大样本性质和小样本表现。研究结果表明:(1)在大样本条件下,估计量均具有一致性,并且参数估计量具有渐近正态性。(2)在小样本条件下,各估计量依然具有良好的表现,其精度随着样本容量的增加而提高;空间权重矩阵结构的复杂性对空间相关系数的估计量影响较大,但对其他估计量的影响较小。     

流动人口的社会保险覆盖率及其影响因素分析

利用国家卫计委2010年12月的全国性大规模调查数据,本文研究了城市外来流动人口的社会保险覆盖率及其影响因素。研究发现,教育和培训提高了流动人口的参保概率;企业所有制性质、有无劳动合同,显著影响流动人口的参保;农民工各项社会保险的参保状况显著低于城城流动人口,并且中部地区流动人口的社会保险参保率显著低于东部和西部地区。流动人口不再是被动的社会保险获得者,已经有了一定的主动权。在提高流动人口社会保险覆盖率的政策设计上,除了加强流动人口的职业培训和教育之外,还应该严格落实新《劳动合同法》的实施,将农民工作为社会保险扩面工程的重点人群,并将中部地区作为扩面工程的重点区域。     

时变参数状态空间模型估计研究

在宏观经济和金融资本市场上广泛存在着非线性时变参数时间序列,而当前的研究主要关注静态参数状态空间模型的估计。本文通过引入变点分析,改进了静态参数的粒子学习滤波技术,提出了变点粒子学习滤波技术,用于估计时变参数状态空间模型。并且利用模拟实验同经典的变结构IMM滤波技术进行了对比,结果显示,本文提出的变点粒子学习滤波在动态模拟样本数据方面具有更大的优势。可以用于对股票价格和成交量的联合动态轨迹进行实时的模拟追踪。     

半参数变系数回归模型的空间相关性检验

对半参数变系数回归模型,构造了新的空间相关性检验统计量,利用三阶矩 逼近方法导出了其检验 值的近似计算公式,蒙特卡罗模拟结果表明该统计量在检测空间相关性方面具有较高的准确性和可靠性。同时考察了误差项服从不同分布时的检验功效,体现出该检验方法的稳健性。进一步,我们还给出了检验统计量的Bootstrap方法以及检验水平的模拟效果。     

双效应面板ELES模型的构建与实证研究

本文在拓展ELES模型传统假设的基础上,将ELES模型推广到面板数据模型。构建同时包含时间效应和个体效应的双效应面板ELES模型,提出实证研究中模型形式的识别检验流程,并利用面板ELES模型实证研究了2002-2012年期间我国城镇居民消费结构的变动特征。     

Information Technology Project Escalation: A Process Model*

Information technology (IT) a common and costly problem. While much is known about the factors that promote escalation behavior, little is known about the actual escalation process. This article uses an in‐depth case study to construct a process model of escalation, consisting of three phases: drift, unsuccessful incremental adaptation, and rationalized continuation. Each phase encompasses several within‐phase escalation catalysts and the model also identifies triggering conditions that promote transition from one phase to the next: project framing (antecedent condition), problem emergence, increased problem visibility, and imminent threat to project continuation (triggering the outcome deescalation). The results show that escalation is not necessarily the result of collective belief in the infallibility of a project. Rather, escalation results from continued unsuccessful coping with problems that arise during a project. Furthermore, the results suggest that the seeds of escalation are sown early: the very manner in which a project is framed contributes to whether or not the project will become prone to escalation. As problems ensue, repeated mismatches between attempted remedies and underlying problems contribute to fueling the escalation process. Implications for research and practice are discussed.     

LSTAR-GARCH模型的单位根检验

LSTAR模型的单位根检验往往易忽视其条件方差的时变性,实际上,对许多经济变量尤其是金融变量建立LSTAR模型后,经常发现其条件方差存在GARCH效应。针对LSTAR-GARCH模型的平稳性检验,本文构建了检验统计量tNG,之后在极大似然估计的基础上,推导出tNG的渐近分布,通过蒙特卡洛模拟方法得到该统计量的渐近临界值,并在此基础上研究了tNG检验的检验功效。在与刘雪燕和张晓峒(2009)提出的tNL检验、Ling等(2003)提出的tLG检验以及DF单位根检验进行比较后,发现tNG检验具备明显优势。     

我国正规就业者的教育收益率

针对教育收益率测算中可能存在的弱工具变量问题,本文利用2006年中国健康与营养调查数据,结合工具变量估计框架下的各种模型设定检验,对我国正规就业者的教育收益率进行测算。检验和测算结果表明：受教育程度的变量存在内生性,个体配偶的受教育年限是内生变量受教育程度的强工具变量,而个体的出生季度是弱工具变量。广义矩估计结果显示我国正规就业者的教育收益率为10.1%。     

基于CDM模型的信息服务业和制造业创新过程比较

海淀科技园是全国高技术产业和技术创新的中心,是中央政府追求建设的技术创新资源转化成产业创新能力的全国示范区,其中信息服务业是其龙头产业。本文在CDM的分析框架下,基于海淀科技园企业年报的微观数据,对信息服务业创新过程与制造业进行比较研究, 挖掘促进两个产业创新的关键要素,总结制造业和信息服务业内在的创新机理,并为两个产业的创新政策制定提供有效参考。研究发现：在信息服务业中新产品产出倾向与企业规模呈倒U型关系,而制造业中创新规模效益显著;信息服务业的知识密集特征显著,而制造业并不显著;信息服务业中国有企业从创新投入到创新产出的转化效率低下,而制造业中国有企业在创新投入阶段就表现出创新动力不足的问题。