论风险投资有限合伙协议中的合同自治原则

风险投资有限合伙协议在内容的安排上往往是十分松散的，从一个法律人的角度看，我们起初担心如此灵活的安排会损害风险投资有限合伙中有限合伙人的利益。然而事实证明，外部投资人是乐于接受这种松散而偏颇的协议安排的。笔者认为，其原因就在于风险投资行业信誉性的束缚机制取代了法律的约束机制。有限合伙协议作为风险投资有限合伙关系的基础是合同自治原则的典型体现；风险投资的信誉性比法律更能有效规避有限合伙人的风险，即风险投资的信誉性替代了法律，成为了保护有限合伙人利益的有效机制，由此才使得有限合伙协议可以最大限度地体现当事人订立合同时的自由意志。     

Regression calibration for logistic regression with multiple surrogates for one exposure

Methods have been developed by several authors to address the problem of bias in regression coefficients due to errors in exposure measurement. These approaches typically assume that there is one surrogate for each exposure. Occupational exposures are quite complex and are often described by characteristics of the workplace and the amount of time that one has worked in a particular area. In this setting, there are several surrogates which are used to define an individual's exposure. To analyze this type of data, regression calibration methodology is extended to adjust the estimates of exposure-response associations for the bias and additional uncertainty due to exposure measurement error from multiple surrogates. The health outcome is assumed to be binary and related to the quantitative measure of exposure by a logistic link function. The model for the conditional mean of the quantitative exposure measurement in relation to job characteristics is assumed to be linear. This approach is applied to a cross-sectional epidemiologic study of lung function in relation to metal working fluid exposure and the corresponding exposure assessment study with quantitative measurements from personal monitors. A simulation study investigates the performance of the proposed estimator for various values of the baseline prevalence of disease, exposure effect and measurement error variance. The efficiency of the proposed estimator relative to the one proposed by Carroll et al. [1995. Measurement Error in Nonlinear Models. Chapman & Hall, New York] is evaluated numerically for the motivating example. User-friendly and fully documented Splus and SAS routines implementing these methods are available (http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/faculty/spiegelman/multsurr.html).     

测量不确定度的评定与表示

测量不确定度如何正确评定与表示，是个极其重要的问题，通过实例介绍了不确定度的有关概念，给出了标准不确定度A类、B类评定的方法，以及标准不确定度的合成方法与展伸不确定度。     

基于藤Copula分组模型的金融市场风险度量研究

传统未分组的藤Copula模型可用于刻画金融资产间的相依性,但其存在将所有不同行业资产视为一个整体的问题。本文在充分考虑金融市场中各机构所属行业不同的基础上,提出了藤Copula分组模型,给出了该模型算法的具体步骤,并证明了算法的收敛性。最后通过返回检验方法,对比研究了藤Copula分组模型和未分组的藤Copula模型对银行业、证券业和保险业间VAR估计的精度差异,结果表明藤Copula分组模型的预测效果更准确且更有效。     

On correcting measurement error in the persistence rate estimator

In the field of education, it is often of great interest to estimate the percentage of students who start out in the top test quantile at time 1 and who remain there at time 2, which is termed as “persistence rate,” to measure the students’ academic growth. One common difficulty is that students’ performance may be subject to measurement errors. We therefore considered a correlation calibration method and the simulation–extrapolation (SIMEX) method for correcting the measurement errors. Simulation studies are presented to compare various measurement error correction methods in estimating the persistence rate.     

Estimation and inference for varying coefficient partially nonlinear errors-in-variables models

In this article, we study the varying coefficient partially nonlinear model with measurement errors in the nonparametric part. A local corrected profile nonlinear least-square estimation procedure is proposed and the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established. Further, a generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) statistic is proposed to test whether the varying coefficients are constant. The asymptotic null distribution of the statistic is obtained and a residual-based bootstrap procedure is employed to compute the p-value of the statistic. Some simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed methods. The results show that the estimating and testing procedures work well in finite samples.     

亲贫困增长测度研究述评

阐述亲贫困增长的概念及其测度方法,目的在于总结亲贫困增长测度方法的主要理论成果。有关亲贫困增长测度的方法主要有七种,都是从收入增长率变动或贫困指数变动角度进行构建。现有文献研究从收入维来测度亲贫困增长,有关多维度的亲贫困增长测度具有很大的研究空间,相应地也可以从多维角度分解经济增长效应和分配效应。目前亲贫困增长测度方法都是基于匿名性假定,如何考虑非匿名性情况下的亲贫困增长也是亟待解决的问题。     

中国旅游景气指数实证研究

本文针对中国旅游市场发展实际和旅游市场自身特点,建立了涉及27个基本指标的旅游景气指数指标体系。基于变权思想和熵权方法对中国旅游景气指数进行了测度,对1990-2009年中国旅游景气指数进行了分析和预测。     

信息化影响评估：业务流程视角的电子商务扩展

 基于创新扩散理论,提出一个信息化影响的测度模型用于评估企业电子商务扩展——从传统渠道转向基于internet电子商务的程度,模型包括相关影响因素和假设命题。按照业务流程观点,用价值链上各职能部门业务流程的电子化实施程度作为电子商务扩展的度量,并收集156家传统实体企业数据验证模型的有效性和假设命题,分析信息化影响的关键因素及其贡献。研究发现企业信息化与电子商务扩展之间存在重要关系,5个因素与行业类别对电子商务扩展影响显著,而企业规模与所有制不是关键因素。本研究提出的测度模型能够有效地测评信息化影响,这对于支持政府和帮助企业制定和建立相关发展战略和方针政策、提供有利条件促进电子商务健康发展,有着重要意义和价值。     

会计职业道德建设浅议

随着我国经济的快速发展,会计工作的职业化、社会化以及国际化已将会计职业道德建设推上了重要议事日程。由于不少会计从业人员在物质财富面前失去理智,贪污、滥用职权等违法犯罪行为时有发生导致会计信息市场十分混乱,虚假、失真的会计信息让使用者雾里看花,严重影响着我国市场的经济秩序,而这些违法犯罪行为往往与＂会计＂这个职业的从业者有关,从而导致会计从业人员的职业道德在一定程度上受到人们的质疑。面对这一严峻的形势,我们应该找出原因、深入研究,加强会计从业人员的职业道德建设。