A Note on a Commonly Used Ridge Regression Monte Carlo Design

Ridge estimators are usually examined through Monte Carlo simulations since their properties are difficult to obtain analytically. In this paper we argue that a simulation design commonly used in the literature will give biased results of Monte Carlo simulations in favor of ridge regression over ordinary least square estimators. Specifically, it is argued that the properties of ridge estimators that are functions of p distinct regressor eigenvalues should not be evaluated through Monte Carlo designs using only two distinct eigenvalues.     

The application of generalized ridge and stein-like general minimax rules to multicollinear data

We consider the use of minimax shrinkage estimators for the linear regression mcjel under several loss functions when severe multicollinearity is present. The examples considered illustrate that little or no departure from the least squares estimates is permitted in many cases when the data is highly multicollinear and/or shrinkage is toward a point in the parameter space that does not closely agree with the sample data     

Use of the Bootstrap and Cross-Validation in Ridge Regression

Several existing methods for the choice of the ridge parameter are reviewed, and a bootstrap method is proposed. The bootstrap provides independent measures of prediction errors based on multiple predictions along with an estimate of the standard error of prediction. The bootstrap and selected competitors are compared through Monte Carlo simulations for various degrees of design matrix collinearity and varying levels of signal-to-noise ratio. The procedure is also illustrated by application to two published data sets. In one case, the bootstrap choice of the ridge parameter leads to a smaller mean squared error of prediction than the ridge trace method. In the second case, an optimal choice of no perturbation is confirmed. Benefits of the bootstrap choice include its less subjective nature, ease of implementation, and robustness.     

Performance of the shrinkage preliminary test ridge regression estimators based on the conflicting of W,LR and LM tests

The shrinkage preliminary test ridge regression estimators (SPTRRE) based on the Wald (W), the likelihood ratio (LR) and the Lagrangian multiplier (LM) tests are considered in this paper. The bias and the risk functions of the proposed estimators are derived. The regions of optimality of the estimators are determined under the quadratic risk function. Under the null hypothesis, the SPTRRE based on LM test has the smallest risk, followed by the estimators based on LR and W tests. However, the SPTRRE based on W test performs the best followed by the LR and LM based estimators when the parameter moves away from the subspace of the restrictions. The conditions of superiority of the proposed estimator for both ridge and departure parameters are discussed. The optimum choice of the level of significance becomes the traditional choice by using the W test for all non-negative ridge parameters.     

Stability of linear programming solutions using regression coefficients

In at least one important application of stochastic linear programming (Lavaca-Tres Palacios Estuary:A Study of the Influence of Freshwater Inflows, 1980)constraint parameters are simultaneously estimated using multiple regression with historic data for the values of the decision variables and the right hand side of the constraint function. In this circumstance, the question immediately arises "How stable is the linear programming (LP) solution with regard to regression issues such as sample size, magnitude of the error variance, centroids of the decision variables, apd collinearity?" This paper reports a simulation designed to assess the stability of the LP solution and to compare the effectiveness of ridge as an alternative to ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. For the given scenario, the LP solution is consistently "biased." The amount of bias is exacerbated by small samples, large error variances, and collinearity among observations of the decision variables. The best regression criterion is a function not only of collinearity, but also of the magnitude of the error variance and the sum of the means of the decision variables relative to the right hand side of the stochastic constraint

In the application that motivated this research, the LP solutions were recommended fresh water inflows from Lake Texana into the estuaries of the Gulf of Mexico. The stochastic constraint estimates commercial fish harvest as a function of seasonal fresh water inflow. The historic data set used to estimate parameters of the constraint comprised rainfall data and fish harvest data prior to the construction of the Lake Texana dam, of necessity a small sample with collinear seasonal rainfall. It is not the authors' intent to solve this application, but rather to investigate through a simpler simulated systemwhether or not regression estimates in similar circumstances might introduce a systematic and predictable bias. The answer to this latter question is a qualified Yes!.     

A comparison of biased regression estimators using a pitman nearness criterion

Biased regression estimators have traditionally benn studied using the Mean Square Error (MSE) criterion. Usually these comparisons have been based on the sum of the MSE's of each of the individual parameters, i.e., a scaler valued measure that is the trace of the MSE matrix. However, since this summed MSE does not consider the covariance structure of the estimators, we propose the use of a Pitman Measure of Closeness (PMC) criterion (Keating and Gupta, 1984; Keating and Mason, 1985). In this paper we consider two versions of PMC. One of these compares the estimates and the other compares the resultant predicted values for 12 different regression estimators. These estimators represent three classes of estimators, namely, ridge, shrunken, and principal component estimators. The comparisons of these estimators using the PMC criteria are contrasted with the usual MSE criteria as well as the prediction mean square error. Included in the estimators is a relatively new estimator termed the generalized principal component estimator proposed by Jolliffe. This estimator has previously received little attention in the literature.     

A simple way to deal with multicollinearity

Despite the long and frustrating history of struggling with the wrong signs or other types of implausible estimates under multicollinearity, it turns out that the problem can be solved in a surprisingly easy way. This paper presents a simple approach that ensures both statistically sound and theoretically consistent estimates under multicollinearity. The approach is simple in the sense that it requires nothing but basic statistical methods plus a piece of a priori knowledge. In addition, the approach is robust even to the extreme case when the a priori knowledge is wrong. A simulation test shows astonishingly superior performance of the method in repeated samples comparing to the OLS, the Ridge Regression and the Dropping-Variable approach.     

New biased estimators under the LINEX loss function

In this paper, using the asymmetric LINEX loss function we derive the risk function of the generalized Liu estimator and almost unbiased generalized Liu estimator. We also examine the risk performance of the feasible generalized Liu estimator and feasible almost unbiased generalized Liu estimator when the LINEX loss function is used.     

The use of metaevaluation to plan evaluations of conservation programs

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is sponsoring and will be required to evaluate a wide range of conservation programs. The development of evaluation plans for such programs can often be improved by reviewing evaluations that have been done on similar programs. The Residential Conservation Service (RCS), sponsored by DOE, is discussed as an example of how conducting metaevaluations can improve evaluation planning. Many utilities have sponsored programs that are similar to the RCS. A review of the utility program evaluations suggested key methodological issues and data problems that should be considered in the development of an RCS evaluation plan. The implications of these metaevaluation findings for an RCS evaluation plan are discussed.     

考古学文化考证的瑶族千家峒

以考古学文化与瑶族<评皇券牒>、历史文献中的瑶族迁徙为依据探析千家峒的生成.据考古学文化与历史背景分析,辨析瑶族最早的千家峒在今天湖南临湘市龙窖山.江永大远千家峒、广西灌阳韭菜岭千家峒说,是世世代代不同人们的研究的诠释.