全文获取类型
收费全文 | 10781篇 |
免费 | 175篇 |
国内免费 | 31篇 |
专业分类
管理学 | 612篇 |
民族学 | 367篇 |
人才学 | 3篇 |
人口学 | 187篇 |
丛书文集 | 1110篇 |
理论方法论 | 371篇 |
综合类 | 5465篇 |
社会学 | 739篇 |
统计学 | 2133篇 |
出版年
2023年 | 12篇 |
2022年 | 10篇 |
2021年 | 19篇 |
2020年 | 28篇 |
2019年 | 176篇 |
2018年 | 330篇 |
2017年 | 652篇 |
2016年 | 125篇 |
2015年 | 91篇 |
2014年 | 293篇 |
2013年 | 832篇 |
2012年 | 375篇 |
2011年 | 285篇 |
2010年 | 288篇 |
2009年 | 326篇 |
2008年 | 379篇 |
2007年 | 493篇 |
2006年 | 519篇 |
2005年 | 620篇 |
2004年 | 631篇 |
2003年 | 709篇 |
2002年 | 585篇 |
2001年 | 679篇 |
2000年 | 433篇 |
1999年 | 289篇 |
1998年 | 131篇 |
1997年 | 110篇 |
1996年 | 130篇 |
1995年 | 122篇 |
1994年 | 115篇 |
1993年 | 76篇 |
1992年 | 78篇 |
1991年 | 93篇 |
1990年 | 47篇 |
1989年 | 30篇 |
1988年 | 92篇 |
1987年 | 3篇 |
1986年 | 4篇 |
1985年 | 116篇 |
1984年 | 147篇 |
1983年 | 84篇 |
1982年 | 76篇 |
1981年 | 122篇 |
1980年 | 69篇 |
1979年 | 63篇 |
1978年 | 57篇 |
1977年 | 11篇 |
1976年 | 17篇 |
1975年 | 10篇 |
1973年 | 2篇 |
排序方式: 共有10000条查询结果,搜索用时 328 毫秒
341.
One particular recurrent events data scenario involves patients experiencing events according to a common intensity rate, and then a treatment may be applied. The treatment might be effective for a limited amount of time, so that the intensity rate would be expected to change abruptly when the effect of the treatment wears out. In particular, we allow models for the intensity rate, post-treatment, to be at first decreasing and then change to increasing (and vice versa). Two estimators of the location of this change are proposed. 相似文献
342.
In this article, we propose a new class of distributions defined by a quantile function, which nests several distributions as its members. The quantile function proposed here is the sum of the quantile functions of the generalized Pareto and Weibull distributions. Various distributional properties and reliability characteristics of the class are discussed. The estimation of the parameters of the model using L-moments is studied. Finally, we apply the model to a real life dataset. 相似文献
343.
In this article, we develop the theory of k-factor Gegenbauer Autoregressive Moving Average (GARMA) process with infinite variance innovations which is a generalization of the stable seasonal fractional Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model introduced by Diongue et al. (2008). Stationarity and invertibility conditions of this new model are derived. Conditional Sum of Squares (CSS) and Markov Chains Monte Carlo (MCMC) Whittle methods are investigated for parameter estimation. Monte Carlo simulations are also used to evaluate the finite sample performance of these estimation techniques. Finally, the usefulness of the model is corroborated with the application to streamflow data for Senegal River at Bakel. 相似文献
344.
This article reviews symmetrical global sensitivity analysis based on the analysis of variance of high-dimensional model representation. To overcome the computational difficulties and explore the use of symmetrical design of experiment (SDOE), two methods are presented. If the form of the objective function f is known, we use SDOE to estimate the symmetrical global sensitivity indices instead of Monte Carlo or quasi-Monte Carlo simulation. Otherwise, we use the observed values of the experiment to do symmetrical global sensitivity analysis. These methods are easy to implement and can reduce the computational cost. An example is given by symmetrical design of experiment. 相似文献
345.
Techniques used in variability assessment are subsequently used to draw conclusions regarding the “spread”/uniformity of data curves. Due to the limitations of these techniques, they are not adequate for circumstances where data manifest with multiple peaks. Examples of these manifestations (in three-dimensional space) include under-foot pressure distributions recorded for different types of footwear (Becerro-de-Bengoa-Vallejo et al., 2014; Cibulka et al., 1994; Davies et al., 2003), surface textures and interfaces designed to impact friction, and and and molecular surface structures such as viral epitopes (Torras and Garcia-Valls, 2004; Pacejka, 1997; Fustaffson, 1997). This article proposes a technique for generating a single variable – Λ that will quantify the uniformity of such surfaces. We define and validate this technique using several mathematical and graphical models. 相似文献
346.
The binary logistic regression is a widely used statistical method when the dependent variable has two categories. In most of the situations of logistic regression, independent variables are collinear which is called the multicollinearity problem. It is known that multicollinearity affects the variance of maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) negatively. Therefore, this article introduces new shrinkage parameters for the Liu-type estimators in the Liu (2003) in the logistic regression model defined by Huang (2012) in order to decrease the variance and overcome the problem of multicollinearity. A Monte Carlo study is designed to show the goodness of the proposed estimators over MLE in the sense of mean squared error (MSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). Moreover, a real data case is given to demonstrate the advantages of the new shrinkage parameters. 相似文献
347.
鲁玉洁 《陕西学前师范学院学报》2016,32(6):90-95
唐代前期,乡里组织作为县以上政权的辅助机构仍然发挥着重要作用,尤其在“上承下达”,直接管理农民,维护乡里社会的安定等方面。然囿于相关史料记载较少,很难考察其具体真实的情况。所幸敦煌文书的出土,弥补了这一遗憾。通过对P.2979号文书的研究,可以发现,唐代前期,乡里组织,尤其是里正,的确在乡里社会的管理中发挥重要作用,而且其与上级官吏、农民以及地方乡绅的关系也具有复杂性与矛盾性的一面。本文再度考察P.2979号敦煌文书,以此增进对其时乡里组织实际运行的认识。 相似文献
348.
349.
随着新农村建设的深入开展,农村金融发展尤其是农村金融市场建设成为人们关注的焦点。我国农村有普遍的存款服务和汇兑服务,但缺乏有效率和规模的信贷供给。如何重建农村信贷市场成为制约农村金融市场建设的关键因素。通过对农户信贷需求的满足问题的探讨,可以发现,在目前城乡二元经济结构下,小农经济与市场化的矛盾成为制约农户借贷供求的根源。突破这一制约的有效途径是发展合作经济和建立"农民所有"的合作金融。 相似文献
350.
沈洁 《重庆大学学报(社会科学版)》2007,13(3):116-120
T.S.艾略特的《四个四重奏》反映出诗人的本土意识,即美国及美国文化的烙印.虽然艾略特并没有像其他美国诗人如惠特曼那样成为真正"美国制造"的本土诗人,《四个四重奏》却不妨被贴上"美国制造"的标签--诗歌中流露出的美国哲学思想的影响,具有美国本土影像的意象清晰可辨.文章着重挖掘诗歌中体现美国文化的哲学内容和诗歌意象,从而证明本土意识在艾略特《四个四重奏》创作中的重要意义. 相似文献