A DECISION THEORY EXAMPLE IN FOOTBALL

In the 1967 Harvard-Cornell football game, Harvard was ahead 14–0 late in the game when Cornell scored two touchdowns. On both occasions, Cornell tried and failed on the two-point conversion attempt and lost the game 14–12. Postgame arguments were divided on the merits of Cornell's strategy. For this frequently occurring scenario in college football, we derive a maximum expected utility decision rule for the decision of kicking versus running/passing based on the relative utility of a win, a tie, or a loss and the probabilities of success with a kick as opposed to a run/pass.     

A TIME-SERIES APPROACH FOR CONSTRUCTING EXPECTATIONS MODELS*

This article presents an efficient way of dealing with adaptive expectations models—a way that makes use of all the information available in the data. The procedure is based on multiple-input transfer functions (MITFs): by calculating lead and lag cross correlations between innovations associated with the variables in the model, it is possible to determine which periods have the greatest effects on the dependent variable. If information about k periods ahead is required, fitted values for the expectation variables are used to generate k-period-ahead forecasts. These in turn can be used in the estimation of the transfer function equation, which not only contains the usual lagged variables but also allows for incorporation of lead-fitted values for the expectation variables. The MITF identification and estimation procedures used are based on the corner method. The method is contrasted with the Almon distributed-lag approach using a model relating stock market prices to interest rates and expected corporate profits.     

ASSESSING ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING AT THE SUBUNIT LEVEL: A MULTITRAIT-MULTIMETHOD ANALYSIS*

Environmental scanning activities of over 400 top management subunits in 108 European manufacturing firms provided the data base for this research. Four traits (constructs) of scanning using three methods (interest, frequency, and time) were examined. A confirmatory factor analysis approach to multitrait-multimethod (MTMM) data was employed. Verification of the reliability as well as convergent and discriminant validity of the scanning scales are reported and discussed. The viability of confirmatory factor analysis in providing a precise analysis of partitioning variance according to trait, method, and error is demonstrated.     

DEVIL'S ADVOCACY AND DIALECTICAL INQUIRY EFFECTS ON PREDICTION PERFORMANCE: TASK INVOLVEMENT AS A MEDIATING VARIABLE

Critics of previous laboratory experiments comparing devil's advocacy (DA) to dialectical inquiry (DI) have suggested that these experiments produced misleading results because (1) they used subjects who had low levels of task involvement and (2) the DI treatment used was confusing to subjects and required further explanation to be useful. The present study examines the effects of four inquiry methods—expert (E), DA, DI, and DI with explanatory statement (DI+)—on subjects' performance at a financial prediction task. Results show that DA, DI, and DI + were superior to E when the state of the world differed significantly from assumptions underlying the expert's plan. For subjects with high task involvement, DI and DI + were more effective than E and DA. The results support some of the criticisms of previous laboratory research and suggest that future research on these decision aids should include task involvement as a factor.     

AN ANALYSIS OF CAPACITY PLANNING PROCEDURES FOR A MATERIAL REQUIREMENTS PLANNING SYSTEM*

This paper is concerned with planning work-center capacity levels in manufacturing firms that employ a material requirements planning (MRP) system. It presents four procedures for developing work-center capacity plans designed to insure the production of components and assemblies as specified by the MRP plan and the master production schedule (MPS). These procedures (capacity planning using overall factors, capacity bills, resource profiles, and capacity requirements planning) are compared using simulation analysis. The results indicate that the performance of a procedure when measured against the MPS depends on the operating conditions of the manufacturing system. The results also indicate that the choice of a particular procedure often represents a compromise among the benefits of improved MPS performance, the costs of preparing and processing data, and the premium expenses required for more frequent adjustments in work-center capacity levels.     

五代入宋文人对宋朝儒学振兴及文化事业的发展所做的贡献——以名儒杨徽之为个案研究

杨徽之是五代入宋的文人,他精通儒典,学问广博,品德高尚,被周世宗选拔,入宋后受知于宋太宗,建议宋太宗崇尚儒学,为太宗所赞赏。后又成为宋真宗的潜邸文臣,担负辅导教育真宗的重任,提高了宋真宗的文化素养,真宗即位后继续辅导真宗,积极举荐文人,培养后辈人才,为宋初儒学的振兴及文化事业的发展做出了贡献。     

房地产企业财务风险研究

随着房地产业高速发展,房地产企业财务风险也不断积聚。文章对房地产企业财务风险成因进行分析,针对房地产企业财务风险的产生环节,提出风险防范措施并化解财务风险;同时,基于Z计分模型进行实证研究,阐明了较有普遍意义的财务风险预警模式。     

试论高校的危机公关与管理

分析了我国高等院校发生危机事件的基本诱因,阐述了我国高校危机公关与管理的现状,论述了建立高校危机公关与管理机制的基本内容。     

信息网络传播权之主体与内容

信息网络传播权是我国著作权法新确立的一种著作权。信息网络传播权的权利主体除了传统的著作权人以外，还应当包括一些新的权利主体，即数字化作品的创作者和网络出版者。在权利内容上，信息网络传播权也有其特殊之处，包括网络出版和复制行为。     

费耶阿本德科学哲学思想综述

保尔.费耶阿本德是当代西方最有影响的科学哲学家之一,他的科学哲学思想与西方其他科学哲学家相比有着鲜明的特色,被称为“当代科学哲学中最大的异端”。他属于历史学派,反对科学沙文主义、经验主义、证伪主义、理性主义等,并提出了“无政府主义认识论”、“韧性原理”和“增殖原理”等科学发展模式理论,他认为他的任务乃是宣告科学哲学的终结,成为科学哲学的送葬人。