信息时代高校外语教师职业发展新模式

文章简要陈述了信息时代高校外语教师职业发展趋势和信息时代对高校外语教师职业发展的挑战,并再对信息时代高校外语教师职业发展新模式的实现途径进行了有效探究。     

Mediation Role of Dyadic Coping on Parenting Stress and Relational Resilience in Couples

This study aims to explore the mediating role of dyadic coping between relational resilience and parenting stress on married couples. The study participants comprised 229 married couples with at least one child and who have had a major life event. The relational resilience scale, parenting stress inventory, dyadic coping scale and personal information, and life events forms were used to collect data for this study. Data were analyzed with the actor–partner interdependence mediation model. The results revealed that dyadic coping actor–partner effects did not mediate between relational resilience and parenting stress. The results were discussed in relation to the social-ecological model and relevant literature. Based on the current findings, recommendations and implications for further research and practice were also proposed.     

Heating up the debate? Measuring fragmentation and polarisation in a German climate change hyperlink network

Research into polarisation on the internet has so far primarily focused on contentious issues and yielded contradictory results. Shifting the focus to a non-contentious setting, this article combines community detection with brokerage analysis and exponential random graph models to assess the degree of polarisation at different levels of a German hyperlink network on climate change. Although homophily accounts for a moderate degree of polarisation at the top level of the network, the communities reveal that other factors prove more decisive in shaping its structure and the article thus contributes to a more refined understanding of the nature of online polarisation.     

Testing an Integrative Contextual Career Development Model With Adolescents From High‐Poverty Urban Areas

Variations in the economic recovery rate across the United States have led to even greater chasms that separate the employed, unemployed, and underemployed (DeSilver, 2017 ). Therefore, understanding and supporting the career development of future generations is critical—especially for those who live outside the context of social privilege. The authors examined the applicability of the integrative contextual model of career development (ICM; Lapan, 2004 ) to a sample of 220 adolescents (129 boys, 91 girls) from a high‐poverty urban area. Results indicated that a canonical variate comprising foundational ICM skills (e.g., career exploration, goal setting) predicted a variate composed of ICM outcomes (e.g., self‐efficacy, vocational identity), thus supporting the usefulness of the ICM framework for this population. The skill of setting viable career goals was an especially strong predictor of outcomes. Implications for career counseling with adolescents living in high‐poverty urban areas and directions for future research are discussed.     

绿色增长下的导向性技术创新选择研究

针对如何正确引导 GHG 排放的气候反馈经济损失下导向性技术创新,以实现长期的绿色增长这一问题,基于 DICE 模型,重构导向性技术创新不同的动力要素及其与气候变化之间的内生关系,建立了可体现绿色增长“均衡性”、“包容性”和“可持续性”的非线性最优控制模型。数值仿真结果显示: 气候反馈经济损失不容小觑; 偏于生产的绿色技术创新导向下社会生产力强劲但存在气候环境恶化风险,偏于减排的绿色技术创新导向下气候反馈经济损失小但存在增长动力匮乏风险,二者虽均可实现长期的绿色增长,但中性的绿色技术创新导向会更稳妥; 偏于生产的绿色技术创新导向下人均消费变化率在短期内会显著提升。     

Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics

In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.     

少数民族高考加分政策的公正性探究

少数民族高考加分政策实施多年,其公正性屡遭质疑,根本原因在于对该政策的根据缺乏深入而系统的认识。事实上,理性约定和平等原则构成其法律基础,循环累积因果论和帕累托最优为其提供经济学上的理论依据,唯有从这两方面厘清该政策的正当性根据,方可消除种种分歧以及在执行和实施过程中的异化和不合理现象。     

大都市服务经济发展的劳动力因素——基于从业人口数据模型的分析

本文在对比分析纽约、东京两个国外大都市服务经济发展的一般规律和劳动力变动特征基础上,以服务业从业人口结构和规模的历史数据作为切入点,对比分析上海服务业的发展状况,指出上海与纽约、东京服务经济发展的差距及存在的主要问题。并进一步构建了基于从业人口数据回归分析的服务经济发展预测模型,运用该模型对上海市未来服务经济从业人口的比重进行预测．分析表明上海的服务业发展正处于加速增长期,并仍将保持快速发展的势头,按此速度到2020年其从业人数比重可达80％;要实现上海服务经济的健康、快速发展应采取积极的人才引进战略和人口政策。     

我国财政赤字和货币供应量联动性的实证模型分析

近期以来国际金融危机的加深,进一步揭示了一国财政赤字与宏观经济之间的深刻关联。进入新世纪以来,我国运用财政赤字的手段和方法不断改进,对于我们应对国际金融市场的动荡、促进内需和经济增长起到了很大作用。但同时,财政赤字与货币发行量之间不可调和的正向关系,也给我国经济体系带来了一定的隐患。因此,通过理论梳理与实证分析来理清赤字规模和货币供应量之间的关系,有助于我们今后宏观经济管理手段和金融市场监管能力的提升。     

试论双回路维稳模型

社会领域也存在某种惯性趋势,即社会趋稳性。这一概念的提出旨在说明,一切不稳定的产生,必定是受到某种作用力的结果。而社会趋稳性与变动力量的结合,便会造成不同程度的反作用力。这种反弹行为在实践中很容易被界定为＂不稳定因素＂。由于维稳的主客体都是人,而＂人是需求动物＂,所以,维稳的具体政策若不能够融入人的思考、理解及感情,将很难实现人际有效的沟通,进而妨碍动态稳定的实现。以组织平衡理论、需求层次理论、安全阀理论及组织学习理论为基础的双回路维稳模型的提出,旨在强调人类需求、基本秩序以及自然法则在维稳中的关键作用。