Bayesian elastic net single index quantile regression

Single index model conditional quantile regression is proposed in order to overcome the dimensionality problem in nonparametric quantile regression. In the proposed method, the Bayesian elastic net is suggested for single index quantile regression for estimation and variables selection. The Gaussian process prior is considered for unknown link function and a Gibbs sampler algorithm is adopted for posterior inference. The results of the simulation studies and numerical example indicate that our propose method, BENSIQReg, offers substantial improvements over two existing methods, SIQReg and BSIQReg. The BENSIQReg has consistently show a good convergent property, has the least value of median of mean absolute deviations and smallest standard deviations, compared to the other two methods.     

Functional analysis of high-content high-throughput imaging data

High-content automated imaging platforms allow the multiplexing of several targets simultaneously to generate multi-parametric single-cell data sets over extended periods of time. Typically, standard simple measures such as mean value of all cells at every time point are calculated to summarize the temporal process, resulting in loss of time dynamics of the single cells. Multiple experiments are performed but observation time points are not necessarily identical, leading to difficulties when integrating summary measures from different experiments. We used functional data analysis to analyze continuous curve data, where the temporal process of a response variable for each single cell can be described using a smooth curve. This allows analyses to be performed on continuous functions, rather than on original discrete data points. Functional regression models were applied to determine common temporal characteristics of a set of single cell curves and random effects were employed in the models to explain variation between experiments. The aim of the multiplexing approach is to simultaneously analyze the effect of a large number of compounds in comparison to control to discriminate between their mode of action. Functional principal component analysis based on T-statistic curves for pairwise comparison to control was used to study time-dependent compound effects.     

A Bayesian model for multiple change point to extremes,with application to environmental and financial data

Abrupt changes often occur for environmental and financial time series. Most often, these changes are due to human intervention. Change point analysis is a statistical tool used to analyze sudden changes in observations along the time series. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian model for extreme values for environmental and economic datasets that present a typical change point behavior. The model proposed in this paper addresses the situation in which more than one change point can occur in a time series. By analyzing maxima, the distribution of each regime is a generalized extreme value distribution. In this model, the change points are unknown and considered parameters to be estimated. Simulations of extremes with two change points showed that the proposed algorithm can recover the true values of the parameters, in addition to detecting the true change points in different configurations. Also, the number of change points was a problem to be considered, and the Bayesian estimation can correctly identify the correct number of change points for each application. Environmental and financial data were analyzed and results showed the importance of considering the change point in the data and revealed that this change of regime brought about an increase in the return levels, increasing the number of floods in cities around the rivers. Stock market levels showed the necessity of a model with three different regimes.     

Local influence in seemingly unrelated regression model with ridge estimate

Local influence is a well-known method for identifying the influential observations in a dataset and commonly needed in a statistical analysis. In this paper, we study the local influence on the parameters of interest in the seemingly unrelated regression model with ridge estimation, when there exists collinearity among the explanatory variables. We examine two types of perturbation schemes to identify influential observations: the perturbation of variance and the perturbation of individual explanatory variables. Finally, the efficacy of our proposed method is illustrated by analyzing [13 A. Munnell, Why has productivity declined? Productivity and public investment, New Engl. Econ. Rev. (1990), pp. 3–22. [Google Scholar]] productivity dataset.     

Combined asymmetric spatial weights matrix with application to housing prices

In this study, a combined asymmetric spatial weights matrix is proposed for capturing the unequal spatial dependence of housing prices, where the advantage of this matrix was demonstrated by a non-nested hypothesis test. To explore the heterogeneous spatial impacts of urban essential characteristics on housing prices over the eastern, central, and western regions of China, after the Lagrange multiplier and likelihood ratio tests, the spatial Durbin model using the proposed weights matrix was applied to each region. The estimation results showed that the direct impacts of college and new employment were significantly negative in the eastern region, but not significant in the central and western regions. By contrast, the direct impacts of hospitals and scenic spots were significantly positive in eastern China, but not significant in central and western China. In addition, the indirect impacts of the four variables were not significant in the three regions. These results suggest that in eastern China, the government may increase the requirements for using medical resources and close tourist attractions in a single city to cool down the skyrocketing housing prices in this area.     

Longitudinal shape analysis by using the spherical coordinates

One of the important topics in morphometry that received high attention recently is the longitudinal analysis of shape variation. According to Kendall's definition of shape, the shape of object appertains on non-Euclidean space, making the longitudinal study of configuration somehow difficult. However, to simplify this task, triangulation of the objects and then constructing a non-parametric regression-type model on the unit sphere is pursued in this paper. The prediction of the configurations in some time instances is done using both properties of triangulation and the size of great baselines. Moreover, minimizing a Euclidean risk function is proposed to select feasible weights in constructing smoother functions in a non-parametric smoothing manner. These will provide some proper shape growth models to analysis objects varying in time. The proposed models are applied to analysis of two real-life data sets.     

Comparison of dichotomized and distributional approaches in rare event clinical trial design: a fixed Bayesian design

This research was motivated by our goal to design an efficient clinical trial to compare two doses of docosahexaenoic acid supplementation for reducing the rate of earliest preterm births (ePTB) and/or preterm births (PTB). Dichotomizing continuous gestational age (GA) data using a classic binomial distribution will result in a loss of information and reduced power. A distributional approach is an improved strategy to retain statistical power from the continuous distribution. However, appropriate distributions that fit the data properly, particularly in the tails, must be chosen, especially when the data are skewed. A recent study proposed a skew-normal method. We propose a three-component normal mixture model and introduce separate treatment effects at different components of GA. We evaluate operating characteristics of mixture model, beta-binomial model, and skew-normal model through simulation. We also apply these three methods to data from two completed clinical trials from the USA and Australia. Finite mixture models are shown to have favorable properties in PTB analysis but minimal benefit for ePTB analysis. Normal models on log-transformed data have the largest bias. Therefore we recommend finite mixture model for PTB study. Either finite mixture model or beta-binomial model is acceptable for ePTB study.     

Empirical Uncertain Bayes Methods in Area‐level Models

Random effects model can account for the lack of fitting a regression model and increase precision of estimating area‐level means. However, in case that the synthetic mean provides accurate estimates, the prior distribution may inflate an estimation error. Thus, it is desirable to consider the uncertain prior distribution, which is expressed as the mixture of a one‐point distribution and a proper prior distribution. In this paper, we develop an empirical Bayes approach for estimating area‐level means, using the uncertain prior distribution in the context of a natural exponential family, which we call the empirical uncertain Bayes (EUB) method. The regression model considered in this paper includes the Poisson‐gamma and the binomial‐beta, and the normal‐normal (Fay–Herriot) model, which are typically used in small area estimation. We obtain the estimators of hyperparameters based on the marginal likelihood by using a well‐known expectation‐maximization algorithm and propose the EUB estimators of area means. For risk evaluation of the EUB estimator, we derive a second‐order unbiased estimator of a conditional mean squared error by using some techniques of numerical calculation. Through simulation studies and real data applications, we evaluate a performance of the EUB estimator and compare it with the usual empirical Bayes estimator.     

Tests for Structural Changes in Time Series of Counts

We propose methods for detecting structural changes in time series with discrete‐valued observations. The detector statistics come in familiar L2‐type formulations incorporating the empirical probability generating function. Special emphasis is given to the popular models of integer autoregression and Poisson autoregression. For both models, we study mainly structural changes due to a change in distribution, but we also comment for the classical problem of parameter change. The asymptotic properties of the proposed test statistics are studied under the null hypothesis as well as under alternatives. A Monte Carlo power study on bootstrap versions of the new methods is also included along with a real data example.     

Score test for homogeneity of dispersion in generalized Poisson mixed models with excess zeros

In many applications, the clustered count data often contain excess zeros and the zero-inflated generalized Poisson mixed (ZIGPM) regression model may be suitable. However, dispersion in ZIGPM is often treated as fixed unknown parameter, and this assumption may be not appropriate in some situations. In this article, a score test for homogeneity of dispersion parameter in ZIGPM regression model is developed and corresponding test statistic is obtained. Sampling distribution and power of the score test statistic are investigated through Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, results from a biological example illustrate the usefulness of the diagnostic statistic.