On square ordinal contingency tables: a comparison of social class and income mobility for the same individuals

Summary.  Square contingency tables with matching ordinal rows and columns arise in particular as empirical transition matrices and the paper considers these in the context of social class and income mobility tables. Such tables relate the socio-economic position of parents to the socio-economic position of their child in adulthood. The level of association between parental and child socio-economic position is taken as a measure of mobility. Several approaches to analysis are described and illustrated by UK data in which interest focuses on comparisons of social class and income mobility tables that are derived from the same individuals. Account is taken of the use of the same individuals in the two tables. Additionally comparisons over time are considered.     

A Likelihood-Based Approximation to the Cumulative Distribution Function of the Noncentral t Distribution

Optimal designs for estimating the parameters and also the optimum factor combinations in multiresponse experiments have been considered by various authors. However, till date, in mixture experiments optimum designs have been studied only in the single response case. In this article, attempt has been made to investigate optimum designs for estimating optimum mixing proportions in a multiresponse mixture experiment.     

中国农村养老模式研究综述——基于CSSCI期刊(2000~2013)的研究

老龄事业是全面建设小康社会和实现中华民族伟大复兴中国梦的重要方面,未富先老、未备先老、抚养比高是我国农村进入老龄化社会的主要矛盾,而养老模式的合理建构是应对老龄化的突破口,引发学界高度关注。基于中文社会科学引文索引(CSSCI)2000²013年期刊文章,分析和梳理学界对养老模式有价值的探讨,从而为顶层政策设计和地方发挥裁量权提供理论和现实依据。由一元向多元发展是我国养老模式的必然趋势。家庭养老、社区居家养老、社会养老以及多层次的养老是养老相关主要模式。现有研究视角涉及多个学科,以发展何种养老模式为重点和养老模式如何组合是学者研究探讨的重点。未来养老保障基本围绕家庭养老为主体、社区居家为依托展开,而社会化养老是必然趋势。在养老模式的具体层面、统筹层面、价值层面、制度文化建设等方面有进一步拓展的空间。     

Could Removing Arsenic from Tobacco Smoke Significantly Reduce Smoker Risks of Lung Cancer?

If a specific biological mechanism could be determined by which a carcinogen increases lung cancer risk, how might this knowledge be used to improve risk assessment? To explore this issue, we assume (perhaps incorrectly) that arsenic in cigarette smoke increases lung cancer risk by hypermethylating the promoter region of gene p16INK4a, leading to a more rapid entry of altered (initiated) cells into a clonal expansion phase. The potential impact on lung cancer of removing arsenic is then quantified using a three‐stage version of a multistage clonal expansion (MSCE) model. This refines the usual two‐stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model of carcinogenesis by resolving its intermediate or “initiated” cell compartment into two subcompartments, representing experimentally observed “patch” and “field” cells. This refinement allows p16 methylation effects to be represented as speeding transitions of cells from the patch state to the clonally expanding field state. Given these assumptions, removing arsenic might greatly reduce the number of nonsmall cell lung cancer cells (NSCLCs) produced in smokers, by up to two‐thirds, depending on the fraction (between 0 and 1) of the smoking‐induced increase in the patch‐to‐field transition rate prevented if arsenic were removed. At present, this fraction is unknown (and could be as low as zero), but the possibility that it could be high (close to 1) cannot be ruled out without further data.     

"Chain pooling" model selection for two-level fixed effects factorial experiments

As many as three iterated statistical model deletion procedures are considered for an experiment.Population model coeff cients were chosen to simulate a saturated 2⁴experiment having an unfavorable distribution of parameter values.Using random number studies, three model selection strategies were developed, namely, (1) a strategy to be used in anticipation of large coefficients of variation (neighborhood of 65 percent), (2) strategy to be used in anticipation of small coefficients of variation (4 percent or less), and (3) a security regret strategy to be used in the absence of such prior knowledge     

Bayesian Estimation of the Regression Model with Autocorrelated Errors Under Contamination

In this article, the Bayesian analysis of the regression model with errors terms generated by a first-order autoregressive model is considered. Our aim is to study the effect of two kinds of contamination of this model via the posterior distribution of the regression parameter.     

生物技术专业科教结合实践教学模式研究

实践教学是生物技术专业教学活动的重要组成部分,让学生亲身参与科学研究活动,是培养学生创新能力的有效方法.根据生物技术专业的特点并结合科研项目,对实践教学进行了教改研究,提出了将生物技术专业实践教学与科研相结合的创新教学模式.     

中国工业化进程中农村劳动力转移“推力模型”的构建

文章在借鉴“推-拉”理论的基础上．结合中国的实际情况从推力的角度构建农村劳动力转移的“推力模型”，对中国工业化进程中农村劳动力转移的影响因素进行了解释，并提出相应的对策建议。     

Who Attends Senior Centers?

Abstract

Logistic regression analysis was used to compare users and non-users of senior centers. Variables assessing linkage to the service system were more significant predictors of senior center utilization than predisposing, enabling, or need variables. More specifically, users of senior centers were older and more likely to live in rural areas. They also had more social contacts, better mental health, and fewer ADL problems. Senior center users were also more aware of specific service agencies, more likely to consult formal resources in making service decisions, and more likely to have used other services.     

EGARCH Model with Weighted Liquidity

We analyze a variant of the EGARCH model which captures the variation of the intra-day price. We study the asymptotic behavior of the estimators for the parameters of the model. We also illustrate our theoretical results by empirical studies.