也谈徽州盐商与盐务官僚——对王振忠先生一篇论述的商榷

在《盐法策》史料和“交结联宗”史料中,并无关于徽州盐商与盐务官吏勾结以及贿赂等事实依据。王振忠先生是用“捕风捉影,无中生有”的手法,将勾结、贿赂等耸人听闻的炒作言辞加在盐商身上,并又夸大其词,称盐商夹带盐斤是“贪赃枉法”。这些都是欠妥的。     

农村剩余劳动力转移的SWOT分析

中部某省农村剩余劳动力转移存在的历史并不长,农村剩余劳动力转移现状的SWOT分析发现利弊兼有,机遇挑战并存。影响劳动力转移的主要因素在于为了更好的生存、自我发展和自我实现以及第一产业劳动率的提高。通过提升农村劳动力素质、完善相关制度、加快城市化进程和建立劳动力市场促进农村剩余劳动力转移。     

泰国影视业发展的SWOT分析

利用SWOT分析法分析泰国影视业状况,认为泰国影视业的发展具有旅游、文化、政府支持,设施完备等优势,也有环境污染、相互压价、法律法规不健全等劣势.泰国影视业的发展应以“市场转换市场”的形式改变规划策略,将影视营销与旅游行业相结合,注重传统文化,提高制作水平,改变创作思路.     

秦皇岛市文化软实力综合评价及提升对策研究

以秦皇岛市为研究对象,在阅读文献的基础上,尝试对秦皇岛文化软实力进行界定,通过定性分析（SWOT分析）与定量分析（指标分析法）相结合的方法对秦皇岛市文化软实力进行综合评价,指出秦皇岛文化软实力的优势、劣势、机遇以及威胁,提出了增强基础竞争力、提高市民文化涵养、建设创新型城市、构建综合型文化传播体系等提升秦皇岛市文化软实力的对策。     

A structured framework for assessing sensitivity to missing data assumptions in longitudinal clinical trials

The objective of this research was to demonstrate a framework for drawing inference from sensitivity analyses of incomplete longitudinal clinical trial data via a re‐analysis of data from a confirmatory clinical trial in depression. A likelihood‐based approach that assumed missing at random (MAR) was the primary analysis. Robustness to departure from MAR was assessed by comparing the primary result to those from a series of analyses that employed varying missing not at random (MNAR) assumptions (selection models, pattern mixture models and shared parameter models) and to MAR methods that used inclusive models. The key sensitivity analysis used multiple imputation assuming that after dropout the trajectory of drug‐treated patients was that of placebo treated patients with a similar outcome history (placebo multiple imputation). This result was used as the worst reasonable case to define the lower limit of plausible values for the treatment contrast. The endpoint contrast from the primary analysis was ? 2.79 (p = .013). In placebo multiple imputation, the result was ? 2.17. Results from the other sensitivity analyses ranged from ? 2.21 to ? 3.87 and were symmetrically distributed around the primary result. Hence, no clear evidence of bias from missing not at random data was found. In the worst reasonable case scenario, the treatment effect was 80% of the magnitude of the primary result. Therefore, it was concluded that a treatment effect existed. The structured sensitivity framework of using a worst reasonable case result based on a controlled imputation approach with transparent and debatable assumptions supplemented a series of plausible alternative models under varying assumptions was useful in this specific situation and holds promise as a generally useful framework. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Robust inference from multiple test statistics via permutations: a better alternative to the single test statistic approach for randomized trials

Formal inference in randomized clinical trials is based on controlling the type I error rate associated with a single pre‐specified statistic. The deficiency of using just one method of analysis is that it depends on assumptions that may not be met. For robust inference, we propose pre‐specifying multiple test statistics and relying on the minimum p‐value for testing the null hypothesis of no treatment effect. The null hypothesis associated with the various test statistics is that the treatment groups are indistinguishable. The critical value for hypothesis testing comes from permutation distributions. Rejection of the null hypothesis when the smallest p‐value is less than the critical value controls the type I error rate at its designated value. Even if one of the candidate test statistics has low power, the adverse effect on the power of the minimum p‐value statistic is not much. Its use is illustrated with examples. We conclude that it is better to rely on the minimum p‐value rather than a single statistic particularly when that single statistic is the logrank test, because of the cost and complexity of many survival trials. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于SWOT模型的农村地区学前教育发展问题研究

SWOT分析法又称作态势分析法，能够将内部的优势劣势、外部的机会威胁逐条列举出来，并据此建立可视化矩阵图，系统全面地提出针对性策略。学前教育作为基础教育的短板，而农村地区学前教育又是学前教育中的短板。借助SWOT模型系统，全面地分析了农村地区学前教育发展的内部与外部的优势（S）、劣势（W）、机会（O）和威胁（T），进而提出相应的增长型战略、扭转型战略、多元化战略和防御型战略，以促进农村地区学前教育平稳、健康发展。     

Spatial approaches to social work – theoretical foundations and implications for practice and research

ABSTRACT

Spatial approaches have inspired and grounded the social sciences and social geography already for a longer time. Beyond these models, the theory discourse on social work developed innovative concepts and models of socio-spatial approaches. They set a special focus on aspects of individual and social development, the concept of acquirement and emancipatory approaches to spatial design. For interventions, special methods for socio-spatial analyses were developed. This article reflects the main approaches of this theory discourse and asks for its key implications for social work practice and research.     

The EPA Health Risk Assessment of Methylcyclopentadienyl Manganese Tricarbonyl (MMT)

This paper describes the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's assessment of potential health risks associated with the possible widespread use of a manganese (Mn)-based fuel additive, methylcyclopentadienyl manganese tricarbonyl (MMT). This assessment was significant in several respects and may be instructive in identifying certain methodological issues of general relevance to risk assessment. A major feature of the inhalation health risk assessment was the derivation of Mn inhalation reference concentration (RfC) estimates using various statistical approaches, including benchmark dose and Bayesian analyses. The exposure assessment component used data from the Particle Total Exposure Assessment Methodology (PTEAM) study and other sources to estimate personal exposure levels of particulate Mn attributable to the permitted use of MMT in leaded gasoline in Riverside, CA, at the time of the PTEAM study; on this basis it was then possible to predict a distribution of possible future exposure levels associated with the use of MMT in all unleaded gasoline. Qualitative as well as quantitative aspects of the risk characterization are summarized, along with inherent uncertainties due to data limitations.