Exchange Rates and Markov Switching Dynamics

This article presents a systematic and extensive empirical study on the presence of Markov switching dynamics in three dollar-based exchange rates. A Monte Carlo approach is adopted to circumvent the statistical inference problem inherent to the test of regime-switching behavior. Two data frequencies, two sample periods, and various specifications are considered. Quarterly data yield inconclusive evidence; the test rejects neither random walk nor Markov switching. Monthly data, on the other hand, offer unambiguous evidence of the presence of Markov switching dynamics. The results suggest that data frequency, in addition to sample size, is crucial for determining the number of regimes.     

Simple random sampling with over-replacement

There are several ways to select units with replacement and an equal inclusion expectation. We present a new sampling design called simple random sampling with over-replacement. Its interest lies in the high variance produced for the Horvitz-Thompson estimator. This characteristic could be useful for resampling methods.     

内蒙古通辽市耕地流转情况调查与思考

土地流转制度的推行,实现了农业产业化、规模化、集约化经营,提高了土地利用率和劳动生产率,实现了资本增值和农民增收。我国幅员辽阔,各地情况不同。本文仅对通辽市耕地流转情况做一调查,对目前在耕地流转过程中存在的问题及成因进行分析,进而提出适合本地实际的对策和措施,以规范、促进耕地合理有序流转,促进本地区的经济发展和社会的和谐稳定。     

Lot Sampling Distributions for Bounded Number of Nonconformities

Attributes sampling is an important inspection tool in areas like product quality control, service quality control or auditing. The classical item quality scheme of attributes sampling distinguishes between conforming and nonconforming items, and measures lot quality by the lot fraction nonconforming. A more refined quality scheme rates item quality by the number of nonconformities occurring on the item, e.g., the number of defective components in a composite product or the number of erroneous entries in an accounting record, where lot quality is measured by the average number of nonconformities occurring on items in the lot. Statistical models of sampling for nonconformities rest on the idealizing assumption that the number of nonconformities on an item is unbounded. In most real cases, however, the number of nonconformities on an item has an upper bound, e.g., the number of product components or the number of entries in an accounting record. The present study develops two statistical models of sampling lots for nonconformities in the presence of an upper bound a for the number of nonconformities on each single item. For both models, the statistical properties of the sample statistics and the operating characteristics of single sampling plans are investigated. A broad numerical study compares single sampling plans with prescribed statistical properties under the bounded and unbounded quality schemes. In a large number of cases, the sample sizes for the realistic bounded models are smaller than the sample sizes for the idealizing unbounded model.     

Open Adoption and Post-Adoption Birth Family Contact: A Comparison of Non-Relative Foster and Private Adoptions

This study used data from the National Survey of Adoptive Parents (NSAP) to compare post-adoption contact in families with non-relative private domestic and foster care adoptions. This study is the first to use a nationally representative sample to examine and compare the extent of post-adoption contact in both private and foster adoptions. The results suggest that children adopted from foster care were less likely to experience post-adoption contact with their birth families than children adopted privately despite the fact that they were more likely to have lived with their birth families.     

巩固和发展少数民族聚居地区新型农村合作医疗制度的实证分析

少数民族聚居地区经济社会发展整体落后已经是政界、学界、民众的基本共识。新型农村合作为社会建设的重要内容少数民族聚居地区也明显落后于东中部地区。少数民族聚居地区新农合显现的特点为:低保障、低预防、低水平医疗服务、低发展水平、"四低"特征。应尽快科学解决"低保障"问题,尽快改善"低预防"状况,提高"低医疗服务水平",根本上解决"低发展水平",这样,少数民族聚居地区的新农合状况才会有所改善。     

Will You Still Need Me,Will You Still Feed Me?—Paying for Care in Old Age

A major issue for social policy in the twenty-first century will be providing good-quality support and care for older people. However, recent debate about this has been driven more by ideology than by evidence. This paper examines the socio-economic, demographic and policy changes that are influencing the debate, and outlines findings from current research on attitudes towards financial planning for care in old age. This shows that the majority of people feel that the state should provide or pay for care for older people, either through a means-tested system or one which provides some basic level of protection which people can choose to enhance through their own means. However, only a minority would be willing to pay themselves for this, either directly through increased taxation or indirectly through reduced prospects of inheritance of housing capital. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of these findings.     

An assessment of the construct validity of Ryff’s Scales of Psychological Well-Being: Method, mode, and measurement effects

This study assesses the measurement properties of Ryff’s Scales of Psychological Well-Being (RPWB)—a widely used instrument designed to measure six dimensions of psychological well-being. Analyses of self-administered RPWB data from three major surveys—Midlife in the United States (MIDUS), National Survey of Families and Households II, and the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (WLS)—yielded very high overlap among the dimensions. These large correlations persisted even after eliminating several methodological sources of confounding, including question wording, question order, and negative item-wording. However, in MIDUS pretest and WLS telephone administrations, correlations among the dimensions were much lower. Past research demonstrates that self-administered instruments provide more valid psychological measurements than telephone surveys, and we therefore place more weight on the consistent results from the self-administered items. In sum, there is strong evidence that RPWB does not have as many as six distinct dimensions, and researchers should be cautious in interpreting its subscales.     

Childhood Family,Ethnicity, and Drug Use Over the Life Course

Using multiply imputed data from 5 waves of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (N = 8,294), we investigated whether childhood family characteristics and childhood religious affiliation explain ethnic differences in marijuana and cocaine use in the last year. None of the childhood factors explained ethnic differences in drug use, though ethnicity and several childhood factors had age‐specific effects. Over the life course from young adulthood to middle age, ethnic differences in drug use changed and the effect of childhood religious affiliation declined. Having a more intellectually rich family in childhood increased the risk of drug use at younger ages but reduced it at older ages. The study demonstrates the significance of childhood family experiences for understanding adult drug use.