关于中国数据库调查方法与资本化核算方法研究

随着信息技术、互联网、人工智能、云计算的迅速发展,数据呈爆炸式增长,已逐渐成为一种极具价值的资产,世界主要国家纷纷出台扶持数据产业发展战略。国民经济核算国际标准《国民账户体系(2008)》明确建议将数据库作为知识产权产品包括在固定资产中。但目前包括中国在内的大部分国家还未对数据库资产建立完善的统计调查制度。本文梳理了目前发达国家有关数据库统计的经验,结合中国实际,对中国数据库调查方法和数据库资本化核算方法进行了研究,从生产法、收入法、支出法三个角度探讨了数据库资本化核算对GDP产生的影响,讨论了数据库类型转化与数据库资产价值未来调整方向,辅之以案例分析,旨在为中国数据库调查和资本化核算工作提供有益参考。     

基于多重抽样框的校准估计方法研究

在现代抽样调查中,校准估计方法能够通过有效利用辅助信息来提高估计量的精度,多重抽样框抽样调查则不仅可以解决单一抽样框覆盖不全的问题,还可以节约抽样设计阶段的成本。本文将这两种现代抽样估计与设计方法进行结合,将校准估计方法引入到基于多重抽样框的抽样调查体系中,在实现节约调查成本的同时,还能够提高估计量的精度。文章首先按照分离抽样框与组合抽样框估计方法的分类思路,对传统多重抽样框估计方法进行系统梳理;然后在最短距离法校准估计的分析框架下,按照调查时所能掌握辅助信息的具体情况,给出了两类多重抽样框估计情形下的各种不同形式的校准估计量;随后数值分析的比较结果也表明在多重抽样框中校准估计量的估计效率明显优于传统估计量;最后对本文研究进行总结的基础上,给出了我国抽样实践中应用这套先进抽样估计方法体系的展望。     

关于人口统计调查方法体系存在的问题和改革设想

我国现行的人口统计调查方法体系是“以经常性的人口抽样调查为主体,以人口普查为基础,重点调查等为补充的多种方法的运用”,但随着经济社会的快速发展,“以普查为基础,经常性抽样调查为主体"的人口统计调查方法体系,与政府、社会对人口信息多层次、精细化、时效性的需求变得不适应,在实践中显露出矛盾和问题。本文以下将对当前人口普查和人口变动情况抽样调查,在人口统计中作用和存在问题做出分析,在此基础上提出人口统计的改革设想,并落实到具体的解决办法,以2020年第七次人口普查为契机,建立《人口统计与管理服务数据平台》,并结合社区网格化管理进行年度更新,取得年度全国、省级及省级以下的常住人口数据;同时改革人口抽样调查的内容,结合手机信令大数据在人口统计中的应用,完善人口统计调查方法体系。     

构建新时代现代化统计调查体系的问题研究

通过总结中国现行统计调查体系存在的问题,对统计调查制度与方法等相关环节问题进行研究,提出建立一套与新时代中国特色社会主义相适应的现代化统计调查体系。这套体系将传统的统计调查方法与新式电子化记录的大数据有效融合使用,注重大数据与抽样调查数据及其推断估计方法的结合,在不显著增加整体调查经费的前提下,更加准确、及时、全面和连续地产生各类宏观时间序列调查数据和微观纵向调查数据,推进中国政府统计管理体制的深化改革与发展。     

我国调查失业率估计抽样方案——基于行政记录与统计调查数据来源

到目前为止,我国官方发布的是城镇登记失业率。从明年起,我国将发布与国际接轨的调查失业率。国家统计局是通过抽样调查,采取上门登记样本调查小区居民就业信息而获得全国失业率估计值的。本文以劳动力所在工作单位或居民委员会为抽样单位,使用行政记录与统计调查相结合的就业状况数据来源。重新设计我国调查失业率估计抽样方案。为了获得较高的调查失业率估计精度,我们使用了PPS抽样法,并进行了模拟研究。     

试论梁启超墨学研究的纯学术阶段

作者认为 ,2 0世纪 2 0年代可以视作梁启超墨学研究的纯学术阶段 ,这一阶段的墨学著作 (《墨经校释》与《墨子学案》)已不同于此前有关墨学论著的政治宣传、思想启蒙性质 ,而表现了较多的学术涵养。必须重视梁启超墨学研究的这一阶段 ,才能对梁启超治墨的学术贡献作出恰如其分的评价。     

2007年高校人文社科学报研究综述

2007年的高校人文社科学报研究,在学报界及期刊编辑学界的共同努力下,继续稳步向前推进。论题主要集中在六个方面:学报与学术风气;学报编辑业务;学报改革与发展;学报编辑主体;学报名刊、名栏建设;学报编辑出版网络化。     

Improving ability measurement in surveys by following the principles of IRT: The Wordsum vocabulary test in the General Social Survey

Survey researchers often administer batteries of questions to measure respondents’ abilities, but these batteries are not always designed in keeping with the principles of optimal test construction. This paper illustrates one instance in which following these principles can improve a measurement tool used widely in the social and behavioral sciences: the GSS’s vocabulary test called “Wordsum”. This ten-item test is composed of very difficult items and very easy items, and item response theory (IRT) suggests that the omission of moderately difficult items is likely to have handicapped Wordsum’s effectiveness. Analyses of data from national samples of thousands of American adults show that after adding four moderately difficult items to create a 14-item battery, “Wordsumplus” (1) outperformed the original battery in terms of quality indicators suggested by classical test theory; (2) reduced the standard error of IRT ability estimates in the middle of the latent ability dimension; and (3) exhibited higher concurrent validity. These findings show how to improve Wordsum and suggest that analysts should use a score based on all 14 items instead of using the summary score provided by the GSS, which is based on only the original 10 items. These results also show more generally how surveys measuring abilities (and other constructs) can benefit from careful application of insights from the contemporary educational testing literature.     

Working U.S. Adults without Paid Sick Leave Report more Worries about Finances

Using the National Health Interview Survey 2015 data release, an analytic sample of 17,897 working U.S. adults in current paid employment were examined to determine if there was a relationship between not having paid sick leave and worry about finances. A series of nine indicators of financial worry were regressed on paid sick leave status with ten control variables. U.S. workers who lack paid sick leave are more likely to report worry about: medical bills from a potential future sickness or accident, retirement, current medical costs from an illness or accident, maintenance of standard of living, medical costs for normal health care, normal monthly bills, rent, mortgage, or other housing costs, and credit card payments. Based on this set of nine multinomial multivariable regressions equations, findings indicate a positive association between not having paid sick leave and reporting financial worry after controlling for gender, age, marital status, education level, race and ethnicity, personal health status, full time work status, insurance coverage, family size, and annual family income. Implications for policy, practice, and future research are set forth.