The persistence of skin color discrimination for immigrants

Under Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, discrimination in employment on the basis of color is prohibited, and color is a protected basis independent from race. Using data from the spouses of the main respondents to the New Immigrant Survey 2003, this paper shows that immigrants with the lightest skin color earn on average 16-23% more than comparable immigrants with the darkest skin color. These estimates control for years of legal permanent residence in the US, education, English language proficiency, occupation in source country, Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, race, country of birth, as well as for extensive current labor market characteristics that may be themselves influenced by discrimination. Furthermore, the skin color penalty does not diminish over time. These results are consistent with persistent skin color discrimination affecting legal immigrants to the United States.     

生命不确定性的跨期最优消费行为研究

 本文首先根据中国收入分配制度的特点将消费者的生命周期区分为退休前和退休后,分别设置新古典经济学生命周期消费(Life-Cycles)理论的跨期预算约束;在生命不确定性的假设下,推导出了消费者的最优消费路径。而且,依据1988年1月-2008年12月天津市的城市住户调查数据,利用动态伪面板数据模型的实证分析为理论结果提供了经验证据。另外,实证研究发现,（1）对于户主出生于1965年前的家庭,他们依然延续了传统的消费习惯,完善社会保障机制、转变他们的消费观念是拉动内需的必由之路;（2）跨期替代弹性接近于零（0.008）,即城镇居民更倾向于即期消费;（3）期望通过货币政策的利率工具刺激城镇居民消费的作用很有限。     

中美日基本单位（企业登记）名录库建设与发展的比较与思考

文章对中国、美国和日本基本单位（企业登记）名录库建设的历史和现状进行了比较分析,对建立和完善我国基本单位名录库的有关问题进行了深入思考,提出成立国家基本单位名录库建设领导小组等六条建议。     

Adaptive bootstrap tests and their competitors in the c -sample location problem

This paper deals with a power comparison of different types of tests, parametric, nonparametric, robustified and adaptive ones for the two-sided c -sample location problem. A robustness study on level f in the case of heteroscedasticity and non-normal distributions is included in our study, too. First of all, we consider an adaptive test based on Hogg's concept and two adaptive Bootstrap tests using Hogg's principle. It turns out that the adaptive Hogg-test is the best one in the case of homoscedasticity but for heteroscedasticity, an adaptive Bootstrap test using Hogg's principle is preferable.     

社会工作专业学生对本专业认同感的状况调查——以武汉市为例

本文通过对湖北省武汉市设有社会工作专业的8所高等院校中的社会工作专业的学生调查，得出了他们报考该专业的情况、对本专业的兴趣、对本专业的前景、是否愿意从事该与该专业的职业等结论，为社会工作专业的发展提供数据服务。     

The teaching of statistics in UK universities

Summary.  The project on the teaching of statistics in UK universities has two phases. In phase 1 various data sources are explored and the Directory of Academic Statisticians is identified as the most reliable source of data on statistics teaching staff. The number of staff in core mathematical science groups peaked in 1996 and has declined since then. The decline is related to research assessment exercise score. Phase 2 is a survey of university groups that identify with the discipline of statistics within the mathematical sciences and which are the key groups for determining the future supply of statisticians. These groups can be categorized as strong, marginal or weak, depending on their recent history and perceived prospects. This categorization is used to make projections of staff numbers in 2010. A decline of between 7% and 22% is expected. The position in medical statistics is stable. Conclusions are drawn in the final section on the basis of the survey returns and the analysis of the Directory of Academic Statisticians data.     

Three centuries of categorical data analysis: Log-linear models and maximum likelihood estimation

The common view of the history of contingency tables is that it begins in 1900 with the work of Pearson and Yule, but in fact it extends back at least into the 19th century. Moreover, it remains an active area of research today. In this paper we give an overview of this history focussing on the development of log-linear models and their estimation via the method of maximum likelihood. Roy played a crucial role in this development with two papers co-authored with his students, Mitra and Marvin Kastenbaum, at roughly the mid-point temporally in this development. Then we describe a problem that eluded Roy and his students, that of the implications of sampling zeros for the existence of maximum likelihood estimates for log-linear models. Understanding the problem of non-existence is crucial to the analysis of large sparse contingency tables. We introduce some relevant results from the application of algebraic geometry to the study of this statistical problem.     

A model based approach for predicting annual poverty rates without expenditure data

The primus inter pares of the UN-approved Millennium Development Goals is to reduce poverty. The only internationally accepted method of estimating poverty requires a measurement of total consumption based on a time-consuming and resource-demanding measure of household expenditure in an integrated survey over 12 months. Rather than measuring poverty, say, only every fifth year, a model is presented to predict poverty based on a small set of household variables to be collected annually between two 12-monthly household surveys. Information obtained from these “light” surveys might then be used to predict poverty rates. The key question is whether the inaccuracy in these predictions is acceptable. It is recommended that these models be tested at a country level and if the test results are similar to those found here, that this approach be adopted.      

Religious Influences on the Risk of Marital Dissolution

This study examined multiple dimensions of religious involvement and the risk of divorce among a nationwide sample of 2,979 first‐time married couples. Multivariate proportional hazards modeling was used to analyze two waves of the National Survey of Families and Households. Results indicated that although each partner's religious attendance bore a modest relationship to marital dissolution, the risk of divorce was lower if husbands had conservative theological beliefs and when both partners belonged to mainline Protestant denominations. Conversely, the risk of divorce was elevated if husbands attended services more frequently than their wives and if wives were more theologically conservative than their husbands. These patterns withstood controls for sociodemographic covariates, marital duration, and marital quality. Directions for future research are discussed.     

Predicting Early Data Revisions to U.S. GDP and the Effects of Releases on Equity Markets

The effects of data uncertainty on real-time decision-making can be reduced by predicting data revisions to U.S. GDP growth. We show that survey forecasts efficiently predict the revision implicit in the second estimate of GDP growth, but that forecasting models incorporating monthly economic indicators and daily equity returns provide superior forecasts of the data revision implied by the release of the third estimate. We use forecasting models to measure the impact of surprises in GDP announcements on equity markets, and to analyze the effects of anticipated future revisions on announcement-day returns. We show that the publication of better than expected third-release GDP figures provides a boost to equity markets, and if future upward revisions are expected, the effects are enhanced during recessions.