生命不确定性的跨期最优消费行为研究

 本文首先根据中国收入分配制度的特点将消费者的生命周期区分为退休前和退休后，分别设置新古典经济学生命周期消费(Life-Cycles)理论的跨期预算约束；在生命不确定性的假设下，推导出了消费者的最优消费路径。而且，依据1988年1月-2008年12月天津市的城市住户调查数据，利用动态伪面板数据模型的实证分析为理论结果提供了经验证据。另外，实证研究发现，（1）对于户主出生于1965年前的家庭，他们依然延续了传统的消费习惯，完善社会保障机制、转变他们的消费观念是拉动内需的必由之路；（2）跨期替代弹性接近于零（0.008），即城镇居民更倾向于即期消费；（3）期望通过货币政策的利率工具刺激城镇居民消费的作用很有限。     

Perceptions of Drinking and Related Findings From the Nationwide Campuses Study

Abstract

Proponents of social norms approaches maintain that correcting misperceptions of alcohol use among college students may reduce drinking and its consequences. The author used aggregate campus-level data from the Nationwide Campuses Study to test this hypothesis. He defined the misperceptions ratio as the ratio of the frequency of the “average student's” perceived alcohol use to the frequency of self-use at each campus. Each of the 57 colleges reported misperceptions ratios greater than unity. At campuses where students had more accurate perceptions of alcohol use, students were more likely to desire alcohol availability at campus events and to drink on more days throughout the year than at campuses where students had greater misperceptions of alcohol use. The author found no data to support the preferential use of social norms programming on campuses with high levels of self-reported alcohol use or binge drinking. These findings raise questions about potentially unexpected and unintended effects of social norms approaches.     

Three centuries of categorical data analysis: Log-linear models and maximum likelihood estimation

The common view of the history of contingency tables is that it begins in 1900 with the work of Pearson and Yule, but in fact it extends back at least into the 19th century. Moreover, it remains an active area of research today. In this paper we give an overview of this history focussing on the development of log-linear models and their estimation via the method of maximum likelihood. Roy played a crucial role in this development with two papers co-authored with his students, Mitra and Marvin Kastenbaum, at roughly the mid-point temporally in this development. Then we describe a problem that eluded Roy and his students, that of the implications of sampling zeros for the existence of maximum likelihood estimates for log-linear models. Understanding the problem of non-existence is crucial to the analysis of large sparse contingency tables. We introduce some relevant results from the application of algebraic geometry to the study of this statistical problem.     

Predicting data quality of proxy reports in egocentric network studies

Egocentric network studies and many general population surveys rely on proxy reports about network contacts of study participants that are asked in name interpreter questions. A central concern is the extent to which proxy reports match the answers these contacts would give themselves if they would be directly interviewed. Based on the theory of survey satisficing, the present research proposes a theoretical framework that allows predicting when proxy reports are likely to match self-reports. Congruence is higher if respondents possess the motivation and ability to answer a proxy question effortfully, and if the task is not too difficult. Moreover, the theory of survey satisficing states that motivation, abilities, and task difficulty are not independent of each other, which provides an explanation for inconsistent findings in the literature. Results from two egocentric network studies study among German adults (N = 756) and among Dutch middle school students (N = 679), in which network contacts were also interviewed, are in line with these hypotheses. Design recommendations for egocentric network studies are provided.     

Corporate lobbying: Role perceptions and perceived influence on political decisions of public affairs professionals

This study aims to provide insight into public affairs professionals’ role conceptions and perceived influence on political decision making. We conducted a quantitative online survey with 238 corporate public affairs professionals in Germany who worked either “in-house” at a corporation, for an industry association, or in a public affairs consultancy firm. Based on their main stakeholder orientation (clients, political actors, or society) and primary objectives (mediator, expert, or advocate), a cluster analysis categorized the professionals into four main roles: persuaders, advisors, coordinators, and mediators. Although acting in line with ethical norms and being transparent about their practices were deemed important for all roles, there were differences regarding the balancing of positions and loyalty toward the client. Finally, a regression analysis showed that financial resources, information sovereignty, and ethical considerations were the strongest predictors of public affairs professionals’ perceived influence on political decisions. Implications and avenues for future research are discussed.     

规模以下工业抽样设计研究

为推动规模以下工业抽样调查工作以及解决当前调查面临的有关问题,本文对抽样设计进行了改进研究。首先,本文对规模以下工业抽样设计演变过程进行系统梳理,总结了现行抽样设计充分利用双重抽样框设计和综合运用三种抽样方法的特点。其次,针对园区层企业密度高的特点,探索结合园区因素改进地域抽样设计,对园区层和非园区层分别抽样,解决调查中面临的非抽样误差问题,并调整辅助变量使其与核心指标相关性均较高,确保抽样推断精度,有效提高抽样调查效率。并以我国东 部某省为例进行实证模拟得到结合园区因素抽样设计对调查工作改进的结论。再次,针对我国各级政府管理需要以及局队业务分工优化调整情况,介绍了规模以下工业样本追加理论和实证应用的主要研究成果。最后,在大数据时代数据来源广泛的背景下,本文在多重抽样框设计以及利用辅助变量提升样本轮换推断精度方面提出了进一步改进抽样设计的思路。     

Employee Misuse of Information Technology Resources: Testing a Contemporary Deterrence Model

Recent research in information systems and operations management has considered the positive impacts of information technology (IT). However, an undesirable side effect of firms’ increasing reliance on IT to support the distribution and delivery of goods and services to customers is a greater exposure to a diverse set of IT security risks. One such risk is intentional employee misuse of technology resources. In this article, we draw upon modern deterrence frameworks to develop a predictive model of technology misuse intention that incorporates formal and informal sanctions as well as employment context factors. The model specifies previously untested relationships between formal and informal sanctions, thereby providing fresh insight into the role of sanctions in deterring technology misuse in organizations. Our results suggest that a predisposition toward the need for social approval and moral beliefs regarding the behavior are key determinants of technology misuse. Contrary to criminological research that has questioned the relative importance of formal sanctions in the deterrence process, we also found that the threat of formal sanctions has both direct and indirect influences on technology misuse intention. Further, from an employment context standpoint, employees who spend more working days away from the office (i.e., “virtual” mode) appear more inclined to misuse their organization's technology resources. The findings have implications for the research and practice of technology management.     

对市场调查与预测课程教学模式改革的研究——基于地方本科院校的视角

市场调查与预测现有的教学方法枯燥单一、缺乏对学生实践能力的培养、教学考核方式过于简单,使得这门实践性很强的应用型课程没有达到相应的教学目标,因此在地方本科院校,对市场调查与预测教学模式的改革迫在眉睫.改革教学方法和手段,提高课堂教学效果;在教学内容上突出案例教学;加强实训和实践教学环节,提高学生的实践动手能力,以及注重学生对知识的掌握程度和运用能力的考核方式是此次教改的主要内容.     

中国城乡居民口粮消费差距估算——基于中国健康与营养调查数据

利用中国健康与营养调查数据,并结合食物成分表和人口统计年鉴的数据,可以估算城乡居民自1997年到2009年部分年份的口粮消费量.在估算时,需要考虑居民在外就餐的情况,并需解决同一类食物下不同种食物不能直接加总和不同特征人群之间食物消费不能直接加总的问题.根据估算结果,自1997年到2009年城乡居民的口粮消费量都出现了下降的趋势,并且农村居民的年人均口粮消费量在最近几年都是比城镇居民只高20公斤至24公斤(按成品粮计算),二者的口粮消费结构差异也不是很明显,据此可以认为城乡居民基本生活水平差距并没有因其收入差距的拉大而拉大.     

Second-order and resampling approximation of finite population U-statistics based on stratified samples

We construct one-term Edgeworth expansions to distributions of U statistics and Studentized U-statistics, based on stratified samples drawn without replacement. Replacing the cumulants defining the expansions by consistent jackknife estimators, we obtain empirical Edgeworth expansions. The expansions provide second-order approximations that improve upon the normal approximation. Theoretical results are illustrated by a simulation study where we compare various approximations to the distribution of the commonly used Gini's mean difference estimator.