Cash support vs. tax incentives: The differential impact of policy interventions on third births in contemporary Hungary

Following steep falls in birth rates in Central and Eastern European countries during the economic and institutional restructuring of the early 1990s, governments made substantial efforts to stop or at least reduce the fertility decline. In Hungary, parents with three or more children could benefit from specific new policy measures: the flat-rate child-rearing support paid from the youngest child's third to eighth birthdays (signalling recognition of stay-at-home motherhood) and a redesigned and upgraded tax relief system. However, the success of these policy measures, if any, is difficult to detect in aggregate statistics. Analysing data from the Hungarian Generations and Gender Survey, we rely on event history methods to examine the policies’ effects on third birth risks, especially among different socio-economic groups. The results indicate that while the child-rearing support increased third birth risks among the least educated, the generous tax relief had a similar effect for parents with tertiary education.     

Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment

We introduce a combined density nowcasting (CDN) approach to dynamic factor models (DFM) that in a coherent way accounts for time-varying uncertainty of several model and data features to provide more accurate and complete density nowcasts. The combination weights are latent random variables that depend on past nowcasting performance and other learning mechanisms. The combined density scheme is incorporated in a Bayesian sequential Monte Carlo method which rebalances the set of nowcasted densities in each period using updated information on the time-varying weights. Experiments with simulated data show that CDN works particularly well in a situation of early data releases with relatively large data uncertainty and model incompleteness. Empirical results, based on U.S. real-time data of 120 monthly variables, indicate that CDN gives more accurate density nowcasts of U.S. GDP growth than a model selection strategy and other combination strategies throughout the quarter with relatively large gains for the two first months of the quarter. CDN also provides informative signals on model incompleteness during recent recessions. Focusing on the tails, CDN delivers probabilities of negative growth, that provide good signals for calling recessions and ending economic slumps in real time.     

Analysis of inaccurate data with mixture measurement error models

Measurement error, the difference between a measured (observed) value of quantity and its true value, is perceived as a possible source of estimation bias in many surveys. To correct for such bias, a validation sample can be used in addition to the original sample for adjustment of measurement error. Depending on the type of validation sample, we can either use the internal calibration approach or the external calibration approach. Motivated by Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (KLoSA), we propose a novel application of fractional imputation to correct for measurement error in the analysis of survey data. The proposed method is to create imputed values of the unobserved true variables, which are mis-measured in the main study, by using validation subsample. Furthermore, the proposed method can be directly applicable when the measurement error model is a mixture distribution. Variance estimation using Taylor linearization is developed. Results from a limited simulation study are also presented.     

Mothers’ perceptions and experiences of skin-to-skin contact after vaginal birth in Saudi Arabia: A cross-sectional study

ProblemThe World Health Organization recommends immediate skin-to-skin contact after birth, however, worldwide, separation of mothers and infant is common.BackgroundIn Saudi Arabia, there is a lack of research exploring mothers’ experiences of skin-to-skin contact after birth.AimTo estimate the rate of skin-to-skin contact and describe mothers’ perceptions and experiences of immediate skin-to-skin contact after vaginal birth in two largest hospitals in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.MethodsA cross-sectional study conducted in 2017. A total of 254 mothers completed the survey on the postnatal ward (92 % response rate). The survey consisted of 36 closed and open-ended items. Data were described using summary statistics and free text comments were analysed using content analysis.ResultsThe rate of direct skin-to-skin contact was 15%. A further 54% of mothers had the baby placed on their chest/abdomen but with a sheet/gown between them. Mothers reported favourable perceptions towards skin-to-skin contact and reported the practice as acceptable (67%). Most mothers did not express concerns about feeling exposed (85%) or that skin-to-skin contact was inconsistent with norms of modesty or culture (87%). The free text comments indicated that most mothers felt positive about their experience of skin-to-skin contact, while some mothers felt overwhelmed and unprepared.Discussion and ConclusionsSkin-to-skin contact was not routinely implemented after birth and the rate was low. Mothers held positive perceptions and wanted to practice skin-to-skin contact. Policy makers and clinicians should acknowledge mothers’ needs and feelings by facilitating skin-to-skin contact to achieve optimal outcomes for mothers and infants.     

A Note on Interpersonal and Communication Skills for IS Professionals: Evidence of Positive Influence

A recent article by Byrd and Turner (2001) reported that interpersonal skills on the part of information systems personnel had a negative influence on the success of systems as measured by competitive advantage. Several reasons were forwarded to account for this unexpected result, including lack of richness in the measure of these skills, the use of strategic success measures, the true complexity of interpersonal relations within an organization, and the sample of CIOs who may have a bias in favor of technical skills. We address these concerns by incorporating a set of communication skills into the interpersonal skills set, sampling users for a different set of stakeholders, and employing a more complex model based on theories of expectation. The results indicate that the impacts of interpersonal skills on system success is not a simple function of the perceived level of the IS staff's skill proficiency but is also determined by the understood expectations of skill requirements.     

被访者驱动抽样：基于多种方法的估计诊断

本文利用RDS样本数据，使用RDS估计器、收敛图、瓶颈图、经纬度信息等，对违反“随机招募假设”的RDS估计进行综合诊断。诊断结果表明，适度违反“随机招募假设”并不会导致严重的RDS偏差，RDS估计仍然是有效的。因此，本文较为系统地介绍了多种诊断方法的实际操作及判断假设违反适度的可能标准，为国内研究者理解RDS方法，推动和发展RDS抽样和统计估计提供了思路。     

Conceptualizing Effects of Office Information Systems: A Methodology and Application for the Study of Alpha,Beta, and Gamma Changes*

This article applies the concepts of alpha, beta, and gamma changes to test whether the implementation of a new office information system with networking capabilities changes the way organizational members conceptualize office work. The traditional approach (t-test) was used to measure alpha change and indicated little change in how effectively the respondents felt they performed eight generic office activities before implementation (T1) and nine months after implementation (T2). However, considerable change was detected between effectiveness reported at T1 and a retrospective assessment of T1 effectiveness reported at T2 (called “then” assessments). Strong change was also detected between “then” assessments and T2 effectiveness reported at T2, indicating beta change. Multiple hierarchical tests showed that most of the change was actually gamma change; the T2 and the “then” factor structures and covariances differed significantly. This study supports propositions that using computers to accomplish organizational work may be associated with different conceptualizations of work, which may create ambiguity and uncertainty if training and management policies do not respond appropriately. Finally, this study provides an expanded version of a prior solution to detecting alpha, beta, and gamma changes.