PPS分层抽样时样本单位数的设计

讨论了PPS分层抽样时,样本单位数的设计问题。对一种常见模型,给出了一个方便有效的分配规则。     

一种乘积估计量的研究

在抽样调查中恰当地使用辅助信息可以提高调查精度。当辅助变量x与调查指标y呈负相关关系时,乘积估计是构造总体均值估计传统的方法。本文提出了链式乘积估计量,并且得到了它的均方误差。在一定条件下,链式乘积估计量的效率高于传统估计量,并提供了一个数值例子。     

我国各地区常住人口总量推算方法探讨

 本文以年度人口变动调查为基础,通过调查指标之间的关系、人口变动自身特征与抽查的情况,对我国各地区常住人口的推算方法进行了分析研究,并对各种评估推算方法的优缺点和适用条件进行了分析比较,根据各地区人口流动特点与人口基数,选择合适的评估推算方法,准确推算出各地常住人口数据。如何加强全国与各地数据衔接问题是今后推算评估数据工作的重点。     

永久随机数法样本轮换初探

本文系统介绍了永久随机数法样本轮换理论,讨论了在等概率、不等概率抽样条件下永久随机数法样本轮换的具体应用,并将其与传统的子样本轮换方法进行比较,希望能够促进永久随机数法样本轮换在经常性抽样调查中的应用和推广。     

连续性抽样调查中的样本轮换研究

 内容摘要：本文首先介?绍了样本轮换研究问题提出的背景和国内外研究现状。接着介绍了分层抽样下样本轮换的理论模型。包括分层抽样下样本轮换的估计量公式和最优样本轮换率的确定方法。再接着利用前面介绍的理论知识,结合上海市城镇住房空置率抽样调查数据进行实证分析。由于该抽样调查采取的是分层抽样,因此相应地用分层抽样下的样本轮换研究。先根据该抽样调查本身的特点和社会经济活动的规律确定样本轮换时间间隔为1年。再分别计算出各层的最优样本轮换率和总体的样本轮换率。最后分别对三层子总体样本轮换的效果进行分析,分析发现各层经过样本轮换以后的精度比不进行样本轮换或进行完全样本轮换的精度有了明显的提高,轮换效果显著。     

A generalization of the logistic linear'model

Consider the logistic linear model, with some explanatory variables overlooked. Those explanatory variables may be quantitative or qualitative. In either case, the resulting true response variable is not a binomial or a beta-binomial but a sum of binomials. Hence, standard computer packages for logistic regression can be inappropriate even if an overdispersion factor is incorporated. Therefore, a discrete exponential family assumption is considered to broaden the class of sampling models. Likelihood and Bayesian analyses are discussed. Bayesian computation techniques such as Laplacian approximations and Markov chain simulations are used to compute posterior densities and moments. Approximate conditional distributions are derived and are shown to be accurate. The Markov chain simulations are performed effectively to calculate posterior moments by using the approximate conditional distributions. The methodology is applied to Keeler's hardness of winter wheat data for checking binomial assumptions and to Matsumura's Accounting exams data for detailed likelihood and Bayesian analyses.     

Bayesian quantile inference

The paper proposes a Bayesian interpretation of quantile regression that is shown to be equivalent to scale mixtures of normals leading to a skewed Laplace distribution. This representation of the model facilitates Bayesian analysis by means of Gibbs sampling with data augmentation, and nests regression in the L₁ norm as a special case. The new methods are applied to an analysis of the patents - R&D relationship for U.S. firms and unit root inference for the dollar-deutschemark exchange rate.     

中美抽样调查发展的比较与思考

 中美两国引入概率抽样调查的历史背景有相似之处,但在科学应用、普及推广和应用效果方面却存在巨大差距。造成差距的主要原因是：统计体制的差异、民族文化的不同、理论与实践结合程度的差异等。文章立足中国国情,深入分析了这些原因,对构建适合中国经济社会制度和文化的政府统计调查模式进行了比较深入的思考,提出的建议有助于实现政府统计的科学发展。     

A unified framework for analysis and comparison of randomized response surveys of binary characteristics

The randomized response (RR) procedures for estimating the proportion (π)$(\pi )$ of a population belonging to a sensitive or stigmatized group ask each respondent to report a response by randomly transforming his/her true attribute into one of several response categories. In this paper, we present a common framework for discussing various RR surveys of dichotomous populations with polychotomous responses. The unified approach is focused on the substantive issues relating to respondents’ privacy and statistical efficiency and is helpful for fair comparison of various procedures. We describe a general technique for constructing unbiased estimators of π$\pi$ based on arbitrary RR procedures, from unbiased estimators based on an open survey with the same sampling design. The technique works well for any sampling design p(s)$p(s)$ and also for variance estimation. We develop an approach for comparing RR procedures, taking both respondents’ protection and statistical efficiency into account. For any given RR procedure with three or more response categories, we present a method for designing an RR procedure with a binary response variable which provides the same respondents’ protection and at least as much statistical information. This result suggests that RR surveys of dichotomous populations should use only binary response variables.