Second order minimax estimation of the mean

In this study we consider the problem of the improvement of the sample mean in the second order minimax estimation sense for a mean belonging to an unrestricted mean parameter space R⁺${\mathbb{R}}^{+}$. We solve this problem for the class of natural exponential families (NEF's) whose variance functions (VF's) are regular at zero and at infinity. Such a class of VF's (or NEF's) is huge and contains (among others): Polynomial VF's (e.g., quadratic VF's in the Morris class, cubic VF's in the Letac&Mora class and VF's in the Hinde–Demétrio class); VF's belonging to the Tweedie class with power VF's, VF's belonging to the Babel class and many others. Moreover, we show that if the canonical parameter space of the corresponding NEF is R$\mathbb{R}$ (which is obviously the case if the support of the NEF is bounded), then the sample mean as an estimator of the mean cannot be further improved. This work presents an original constructive methodology and provides with constructive tools enabling to obtain explicit forms of the second order minimax estimators as well as the forms of the related weight functions. Our work establishes a substantial generalization of the results obtained so far in the literature. Illustrations of the resulting methods are provided and a simulation-based analysis is presented for the negative binomial case.     

从山穷水尽到柳暗花明——浅论美国独立后英帝国的瓦解与重建

美国独立是英帝国历史上十分重要的事件,以此为界,英帝国历史可分为第一英帝国和第二英帝国。本文详细论述了第一英帝国及其瓦解的原因,并探求了在崩溃之后的第一帝国基础上,第二英帝国建立的内在原因、采用的统治政策及其发展壮大。而英国政府对殖民地统治理论的调整是这一切发生转变的关键所在。     

Goodness-of-fit testing under long memory

This paper discusses the problem of fitting a distribution function to the marginal distribution of a long memory moving average process. Because of the uniform reduction principle, unlike in the i.i.d. set up, classical tests based on empirical process are relatively easy to implement. More importantly, we discuss fitting the marginal distribution of the error process in location, scale, location–scale and linear regression models. An interesting observation is that in the location model, location–scale model, or more generally in the linear regression models with non-zero intercept parameter, the null weak limit of the first order difference between the residual empirical process and the null model is degenerate at zero, and hence it cannot be used to fit an error distribution in these models for the large samples. This finding is in sharp contrast to a recent claim of Chan and Ling (2008) that the null weak limit of such a process is a continuous Gaussian process. This note also proposes some tests based on the second order difference for the location case. Another finding is that residual empirical process tests in the scale problem are robust against not knowing the scale parameter.     

贵州黔东南州农村出生人口素质现状调查与分析

以黔东南州6县农村问卷调查的数据和个案,描述黔东南州农村出生人口素质现状,并分析相关影响因素。调查结果表明：出生缺陷发生率为19．42％;男性出生缺陷发生率高于女性;低出生体重儿发生率为12．43％,早产儿占25．33％,窒息13．14％,过期产21．78％。结论是个人、家庭、社区、政府“四位一体”的出生人口素质综合治理之路是必行之举。     

波伏娃《第二性》对中国女性主义研究的拓展

20世纪90年代以来,随着妇女研究的学科化发展和女性问题纳入主流马克思主义唯物史观的研究,中国女性主义研究学者对西方女性主义理论经典《第二性》的解读逐渐转向学术化。这一时期,对《第二性》的讨论较80年代更加全面,从马克思主义唯物史观和女性主义哲学两个视阈呈现出来,拓展了中国女性主义的理论研究,促进了中国女性主义的主体成长。     

二战时期美国对日本的心理战研究

太平洋战争爆发后,以美军为首的盟国军队用心理战从精神层面打击日军问题,在历史唯物主义的指导下,借助历史学以及其他学科的研究理论和方法,对二战时期美国对日本的心理战战略计划、心理战手段、心理战的成绩及特点等进行研究。研究认为,日本士兵在接受军国主义教育后有“效忠天皇”“皇军不可战胜”等信念,狂热信奉“进功精神”和“武士道”精神;对此,美国在大战略背景下确定了对日本心理战的目标是以揭露法西斯主义的本质和危害性为核心,使日本士兵和民众相信,日本政府发动的侵略战争注定要失败的,并相信美国的宣战和胜利将给日本带来民主自由,同时维护日本天皇的尊严,将发动战争的罪行归于日本军国主义政府,并尽可能减少日本士兵和民众遭受不必要的生命和财产损失;心理战具体的措施有正面的“白色”宣传,一是对日本军队进行广播宣传或阵前喊话,二是向日本军队占领的岛屿或前沿阵地投放传单,还有讲假话的“黑色”或“灰色”宣传,其基本手法是制造和传播假消息和假情报来扰乱日军士兵的心理,再利用日本战俘向原先部队宣传美军优待俘虏政策,向美国投降是“名誉停战”等;为了让心理战术的效果更明显,美军将心理战行为与军事行为相互配合,用空袭和投放原子弹等对日军士兵造成心理威慑,用真假情报信息迷惑日军士兵,使得日军士兵士气低落,抵抗意志逐渐减弱,“跳蛙”战术和心理战攻势节节胜利,心理战在打败日本法西斯战争中发挥了“第四种战争”的重要作用。     

外部环境视角下我国企业年金发展影响因素分析

影响企业年金发展的因素是多方面的,有宏观的外部因素,也有企业年金自身制度内部因素。本文将我国企业年金发展纳入我国社会保障体制中,综合考量基本养老保险、劳动力市场状况、收入分配体系等外部环境对企业年金的影响,为进一步加快企业年金发展提出建议.     

Traces of the Second Demographic Transition in Four Selected Countries in Central and Eastern Europe: Union Formation as a Demographic Manifestation

Using data from the first round of the national Gender and Generations Surveys of Russia, Romania, and Bulgaria, and from a similar survey of Hungary, which were all collected in recent years, we study rates of entry into marital and non-marital unions. We have used elements from the narrative of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) as a vehicle to give our analysis of the data from the four countries some coherence, and find what can be traces of the SDT in these countries. The details vary by country; in particular, latter-day developments in union formation patterns did not start at the same time in all the countries, but in our assessment it began everywhere before communism fell, that is, before the societal transition to a market economy got underway in 1990.

湖州市314名农村育龄妇女放弃申请生育二孩原因的调查

通过对湖州市农村放弃申请生育二孩妇女的生育意愿、经济与工作情况、及她们的生殖健康和环境因素等的抽样调查分析,表明生育意愿转变及经济、工作状况是放弃生育二孩的主要原因,而家庭环境及生殖健康等因素对是否放弃申请二孩也有一定影响