贵州黔东南州农村出生人口素质现状调查与分析

以黔东南州6县农村问卷调查的数据和个案,描述黔东南州农村出生人口素质现状,并分析相关影响因素。调查结果表明：出生缺陷发生率为19．42％;男性出生缺陷发生率高于女性;低出生体重儿发生率为12．43％,早产儿占25．33％,窒息13．14％,过期产21．78％。结论是个人、家庭、社区、政府“四位一体”的出生人口素质综合治理之路是必行之举。     

波伏娃《第二性》对中国女性主义研究的拓展

20世纪90年代以来,随着妇女研究的学科化发展和女性问题纳入主流马克思主义唯物史观的研究,中国女性主义研究学者对西方女性主义理论经典《第二性》的解读逐渐转向学术化。这一时期,对《第二性》的讨论较80年代更加全面,从马克思主义唯物史观和女性主义哲学两个视阈呈现出来,拓展了中国女性主义的理论研究,促进了中国女性主义的主体成长。     

Goodness-of-fit testing under long memory

This paper discusses the problem of fitting a distribution function to the marginal distribution of a long memory moving average process. Because of the uniform reduction principle, unlike in the i.i.d. set up, classical tests based on empirical process are relatively easy to implement. More importantly, we discuss fitting the marginal distribution of the error process in location, scale, location–scale and linear regression models. An interesting observation is that in the location model, location–scale model, or more generally in the linear regression models with non-zero intercept parameter, the null weak limit of the first order difference between the residual empirical process and the null model is degenerate at zero, and hence it cannot be used to fit an error distribution in these models for the large samples. This finding is in sharp contrast to a recent claim of Chan and Ling (2008) that the null weak limit of such a process is a continuous Gaussian process. This note also proposes some tests based on the second order difference for the location case. Another finding is that residual empirical process tests in the scale problem are robust against not knowing the scale parameter.     

Second order minimax estimation of the mean

In this study we consider the problem of the improvement of the sample mean in the second order minimax estimation sense for a mean belonging to an unrestricted mean parameter space R⁺${\mathbb{R}}^{+}$. We solve this problem for the class of natural exponential families (NEF's) whose variance functions (VF's) are regular at zero and at infinity. Such a class of VF's (or NEF's) is huge and contains (among others): Polynomial VF's (e.g., quadratic VF's in the Morris class, cubic VF's in the Letac&Mora class and VF's in the Hinde–Demétrio class); VF's belonging to the Tweedie class with power VF's, VF's belonging to the Babel class and many others. Moreover, we show that if the canonical parameter space of the corresponding NEF is R$\mathbb{R}$ (which is obviously the case if the support of the NEF is bounded), then the sample mean as an estimator of the mean cannot be further improved. This work presents an original constructive methodology and provides with constructive tools enabling to obtain explicit forms of the second order minimax estimators as well as the forms of the related weight functions. Our work establishes a substantial generalization of the results obtained so far in the literature. Illustrations of the resulting methods are provided and a simulation-based analysis is presented for the negative binomial case.     

General minimum lower order confounding designs: An overview and a construction theory

For fractional factorial (FF) designs, Zhang et al. (2008) introduced a new pattern for assessing regular designs, called aliased effect-number pattern (AENP), and based on the AENP, proposed a general minimum lower order confounding (denoted by GMC for short) criterion for selecting design. In this paper, we first have an overview of the existing optimality criteria of FF designs, and then propose a construction theory for 2^n−m$2^{n-m}$ GMC designs with 33N/128≤n≤5N/16$33N/128\le n\le 5N/16$, where N=2^n−m$N=2^{n-m}$ is the run size and n is the number of factors, for all N's and n  's, via the doubling theory and SOS resolution IV designs. The doubling theory is extended with a new approach. By introducing a notion of rechanged (RC) Yates order for the regular saturated design, the construction result turns out to be quite transparent: every GMC 2^n−m$2^{n-m}$ design simply consists of the last n columns of the saturated design with a specific RC Yates order. This can be very conveniently applied in practice.     

从山穷水尽到柳暗花明——浅论美国独立后英帝国的瓦解与重建

美国独立是英帝国历史上十分重要的事件,以此为界,英帝国历史可分为第一英帝国和第二英帝国。本文详细论述了第一英帝国及其瓦解的原因,并探求了在崩溃之后的第一帝国基础上,第二英帝国建立的内在原因、采用的统治政策及其发展壮大。而英国政府对殖民地统治理论的调整是这一切发生转变的关键所在。     

试评洛克《政府论(下篇)》

洛克的政治法律思想集中体现在《政府论(下篇)》中,洛克论述了政府起源、形式和目的,为资产阶级革命奠定了坚实的基础,在世界政治思想史上有很重要的地位。但由于阶级立场等原因,《政府论(下篇)》中也存在着历史缺陷。     

从第二次世界大战看人类交往

战争是最高的暴力交往形式,也是人类交往和促进人类社会进步的一种方式。第二次世界大战 是人类社会空前规模的交往,世界各地的反法西斯力量组成了世界性的战时同盟,不同类型、社会制度和意识 形态的国家为打败法西斯紧密合作;战时的科技发展和人才争夺是人类文化交往的一种现象,战争催生的第 三次科技革命在短时间内使世界面貌和人类社会发生革命性变革;二战的客观后果之一是,世界越来越成为 一个普遍联系的整体,人类交往迈入全球化时代。战争的残酷性也警示后人,避免战争、走和平与发展之路才 是人类交往的正途。     

经典人口转变理论的再探索—现代人口转变理论研究评介

产生于20世纪30年代并盛行于60年代的人口转变理论,是当代世界人口学界普遍认同的最重要的人口理论之一。本文以现代人口转变理论发展历程为线索,对该理论已有的研究成果和存在的争论予以总结,试图为今后的人口转变理论研究提供思路。