Φp-optimal second order designs for symmetric regions

Designs for quadratic regression on a cube, on a cube with truncated vertices and on a ball are studied in terms of a family of criteria, introduced by Kiefer (1974, 1975), that includes A-, D- and E-optimality. Both theoretical and numerical results on structure and performance are presented. In particular, D- and E-optimal designs are described and a procedure of construction of nearly robust (under variation of criterion) integer designs is suggested. Some examples are given for dimensions 4, 5 and 6.     

第二次世界大战与战后和平

第二次世界大战是战争与和平历史运动的一个坐标,战后和平的方方面面无不关涉对第二次世界大战的“参照”。比如,1928年的《非战公约》终因二战而获得了价值认同;第二次世界大战“打”出来的联合国是战后和平的根本保障;二战后更加规范和完善的“和平解决国际争端”是战后和平的重要支撑。但是,“有限化战争”与“战争的变异”表明,要真正实现和平还需要一个遥远的过程。     

Second order tail behaviour of randomly weighted heavy-tailed sums and their maxima

Abstract

In this paper the second order asymptotics of the tail probabilities of randomly weighted sums and their maxima are established in the case that the underlying primary random variables are subexponential. No any assumption is made on the dependence structure between the random weights, but we assume these weights are bounded away from zero and infinity.     

Multivariate bandwidth selection for local linear regression

The existence and properties of optimal bandwidths for multivariate local linear regression are established, using either a scalar bandwidth for all regressors or a diagonal bandwidth vector that has a different bandwidth for each regressor. Both involve functionals of the derivatives of the unknown multivariate regression function. Estimating these functionals is difficult primarily because they contain multivariate derivatives. In this paper, an estimator of the multivariate second derivative is obtained via local cubic regression with most cross-terms left out. This estimator has the optimal rate of convergence but is simpler and uses much less computing time than the full local estimator. Using this as a pilot estimator, we obtain plug-in formulae for the optimal bandwidth, both scalar and diagonal, for multivariate local linear regression. As a simpler alternative, we also provide rule-of-thumb bandwidth selectors. All these bandwidths have satisfactory performance in our simulation study.     

浅谈语言学发展对第二语言教学的影响

本文认为第二语言教育者,只能通吸取各家的精华见解,创造适合己用的教学方式,促进第二语言教学的发展。     

街区邻里政治的动员路径与二重维度——以社区居委会为中心的分析

将后单位时代都市街区中的"邻里政治"置于多元行动者的论域之中,讨论国家-社会在持续绵延的日常生活层面的遭遇,旨在将国家-社会的研究范式切换至"邻里日常生活中的行动者",以此为切口,考察社区居委会在邻里空间的权力操作策略和运作逻辑,居委会动员群众参与、争取居民认同的技术与手段,以及国家权力如何通过代理人的行动和话语渗透到市民日常生活.邻里政治展现的不同行动形式和实践逻辑,从根本上彰显了邻里政治的二重维度,即以居委会为中心的"情理政治"和以物业运作为中心的"法理政治".由居委会运作的"情理政治"是国家出于政权建设需要的自上而下的制度性安排,呈现出"居委会-典型群众(积极分子)-居民"的传统二次动员路径,贯穿于其中的重要因子是面子、人情、互惠、信任等地方性社会资源.     

以色列在非对称战争中的媒体策略调整

战争与媒体有着密切的联系。尤其是在实力悬殊的非对称战争中,媒体策略的运用在造成以弱胜强或者强者不能赢局面的过程中发挥了重要作用。以色列是地处中东危机频发的国家,拥有比较完善的危机管理机制,并通过战争总结经验教训,不断完善。本文以2006年黎以战争和2008年至2009年之交的加沙战争为例,考察了以色列在两次非对称战争中的媒体政策的调整,政府新闻部门、国防军和媒体的组合拳是当今以色列在非对称战争中媒体策略运用的主要特点,并取得了比较明显的效果。因此,媒体战、信息战在今后的非对称战争中也将占据更为重要的位置。     

阿尔法拉比为何被伊斯兰思想哲学界称作“第二导师”

自古至今,伊斯兰思想界对法拉比为何被称作＂第二导师＂这一问题有各种不同的阐释。纳斯尔教授认为法拉比是用逻辑学系统化陈述的方法对诸学科进行处理的奠基者,他建立起＂理性＂与＂信仰＂之间,即哲学与宗教之间的和谐。法拉比在伊斯兰传统中所做的工作有如亚里士多德在希腊传统中所做的工作,故被称为＂第二导师＂。     

Learning to Stay? Mobile Modernity and the Sociology of Choice

Abstract

Linking physical and social mobilities to a modernity typified by increased foci on individualization, consumption, workplace flexibilization and the need for further (and further) education, this paper argues the need for mobility scholars to pay greater attention to the role played by educational institutions in family formation and the decisions associated with where to locate oneself in relation to these institutions. The research project under consideration took place in a remote Australian resource boomtown, an epicentre of global capital concentration and a concomitant mobile modernity. It focuses on educational decision-making that absorbs increasing amounts of energy among middle-class families in various parts of the globe, exploring the sociological implications of this and the links with physical and social mobilities.     

Who decides the position for birth? A follow-up study of a randomised controlled trial

BackgroundPhysical benefits are suggested for women and their babies when women adopt an upright position of their choice at birth. Available care options during labour influence women's impressions of what intrapartum care is. This indicates that choice of birth positions may be determined more by midwives than by women's preferences.QuestionThe aims of this study were to investigate factors associated with adherence to allocated birth position and also to investigate factors associated with decision-making for birth position.MethodAn invitation to answer an on-line questionnaire was mailed.FindingsDespite being randomised, women who gave birth on the seat were statistically significantly more likely to report that they participated in decision-making and that they took the opportunity to choose their preferred birth position. They also reported statistically significantly more often than non-adherers that they felt powerful, protected and self-confident.ConclusionsMidwives should be conscious of the potential impact that birth positions have on women's birth experiences and on maternal outcomes. Midwives should encourage women's autonomy by giving unbiased information about the birth seat. An upright birth position may lead to greater childbirth satisfaction. Women's experience of and preferences for birth positions are consistent with current evidence for best practice.