“二次革命”后孙黄分歧及评价

"二次革命"失败后,孙中山和黄兴这两位辛亥革命的领袖,围绕着诸多问题发生分歧。借助历史参与者的回忆和文献资料来客观地对这些分歧予以评价,对于全面地理解历史人物及反思历史有着重要的价值。     

Leaving the parental home in Australia over the generations: Evidence from the Household,Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (Hilda) Survey

The decision to remain in or leave the parental home represents the first housing career choice of young people. In this paper, we examine the parental home leaving outcomes for Australian birth cohorts in the twentieth century using recall questions contained in the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey. The findings from survival analysis and hazard function modelling is that a continuous, gradual reduction in the age of first leaving the parental home in Australia is evident up to the 1947–51 birth cohort, followed by stability and then a rise in age of first leaving home for the most recent birth cohorts. Birth cohort effects remain significant even after other measured determinants of parental home leaving are taken into account. The paper confirms the strong roles that education, family background and ethnicity have on parental home leaving outcomes.     

儿童照料与二孩生育意愿 ——来自上海的证据

本文围绕一项针对上海市育龄女性的生育意愿调查,分别使用二分和有序Logit方法分析儿童照顾对上海市育龄女性的二孩生育意愿的影响。研究发现当育龄女性能够从家庭内和社会中获得更多孩子照料的时间支持时,她们有更高的二孩生育意愿,也会伴有更明确的二孩生育规划;双独家庭能够从父辈获得更多的经济、时间上的帮助,因此他们要比单独家庭和双非家庭更愿意再生一个孩子;居住于上海市城区的女性从某种程度上更易获得孩子的照料资源,有更多的优质教育资源可供选择,因此她们的二孩生育意愿高于居住于郊区的女性。此外,本文通过是否采用了避孕措施对二孩生育的意愿程度做了进一步区分,结果发现当第一个孩子主要是由孩子父母承担照料工作的时候,女性存在二孩生育意愿的程度是最低的,祖辈照料对二孩生育意愿程度的积极影响也明显低于社会性照料,此现象在上海市户籍的女性中体现尤为明显。最后为纠正自选择偏差问题,本文使用倾向值匹配方法(PSM)进一步验证了与首孩性别相比,首孩的抚养成本与接受照料情况显然对二孩生育意愿的影响程度更大。因此,本文认为加大公共托育服务的供给、为育龄女性提供高质量的0-3岁婴幼儿社会照料支持是提高二孩生育意愿的最有效政策。     

尤氏姐妹的悲剧人生

曹雪芹通过“红楼二尤”的短暂的悲剧人生,揭示了封建贵族社会的冷酷与丑陋,强有力地控诉了荣宁贵族污浊男性的丑恶行径,鞭挞了王熙凤阴险狠毒的性格。尤氏姐妹的悲剧人生,虽然大不同于书中所描写的金陵十二钗的悲剧命运,但却是穿插在曹雪芹所描绘的封建社会大悲剧中的小悲剧,深刻而强烈地控诉了封建恶势力对这三位来自民间的女性从肉体到精神的残酷虐害,惨烈生动,撼人心魄。     

三区革命运动中的“二次革命”及其背景

20世纪40年代新疆发生了反对地方反动统治的三区革命,但是在前苏联错位的民族解放运动导引和苏联势力的控制下,出现了寄生于三区革命运动的分裂政权。随着世界局势的变化,三区革命中的"二次革命"成为扭转三区革命性质转折点,"二次革命"使三区革命运动从"分裂毒瘤"的桎梏下解脱出来,高举国家统一和民族团结的大旗,步入真正的革命正轨;"二次革命"也使当时的新疆各族民众第一次在本民族内部受到了正确的国家民族观教育,从整体上提高了新疆民众政治觉悟和国家认同。     

大学英语第二课堂实践教学探索

第二课堂实践教学是大学英语教学体系中的重要一环,是课堂教学的补充和延伸,本文阐述了大学英语第二课堂实践教学的必要性和重要性。     

母语基础对二语习得的重要性研究

习得二语的过程中,学习者必定会受到母语的影响,主要体现为母语迁移。母语迁移分为：正迁移（positive transfer）和负迁移（negative transfer）。母语的影响在第二语言的初学者阶段体现的最为明显,也最容易被研究者观察。文章阐述了正迁移和负迁移对不同年龄阶段以汉语为母语的学习者在开始学习英语时的影响程度是不同的。每个年龄阶段的人学习第二语言两种迁移都会起作用,只是程度不同而已。通过实验和调查发现,适当的母语基础对习得第二语言相当重要,这是文章重点阐述的,同时也验证了在中国开展英语启蒙教育不是＂越早越好＂。     

Resampling-based bias-corrected time series prediction

In this paper, we consider estimation of the mean squared prediction error (MSPE) of the best linear predictor of (possibly) nonlinear functions of finitely many future observations in a stationary time series. We develop a resampling methodology for estimating the MSPE when the unknown parameters in the best linear predictor are estimated. Further, we propose a bias corrected MSPE estimator based on the bootstrap and establish its second order accuracy. Finite sample properties of the method are investigated through a simulation study.     

Bayesian and likelihood-based inference for the bivariate normal correlation coefficient

The paper develops some objective priors for correlation coefficient of the bivariate normal distribution. The criterion used is the asymptotic matching of coverage probabilities of Bayesian credible intervals with the corresponding frequentist coverage probabilities. The paper uses various matching criteria, namely, quantile matching, highest posterior density matching, and matching via inversion of test statistics. Each matching criterion leads to a different prior for the parameter of interest. We evaluate their performance by comparing credible intervals through simulation studies. In addition, inference through several likelihood-based methods have been discussed.     

东北抗日民族统一战线的伟大创举

1936年初,中共东满特委和东北人民革命军第二军,从东北抗日战争的实际出发,认真贯彻共产国际和中共中央代表团的指示,创造性地发展和扩大了抗日民族统一战线.