禁止使用自指代命题——说谎者悖论的排除和哥德尔定理的讨论

应把“自指代命题”从“自指命题”中区分出来,前者违反同一律,作代换还可能违反矛盾律,因此禁止使用自指代命题。对内容不明的自指命题作真假对错的评判,不可能给出确定的结论,但也不会出现矛盾。说谎者悖论是一个佯悖。它被称为悖论,是因为推理者混淆了思维的层次,构造了自指代命题并进行代换才导致矛盾。哥德尔不完全性定理所构造的自指代命题的可证性存在矛盾的双重标准,定理的证法中共用了矛盾的双重标准,其结论值得商榷。结论中的“不可判定”命题,现在有三种不同的错误解释:是非不可分辨的命题(三值)、是非可分辨但不确定的命题(二值)、除自指代命题之外的是非都不可证的其他命题,它们都不是哥德尔的证法所支持的结论。它导致“真理丧失说”和“数学丧失了确定性”缺乏依据。     

Preferences for One‐Shot Resolution of Uncertainty and Allais‐Type Behavior

Experimental evidence suggests that individuals are more risk averse when they perceive risk that is gradually resolved over time. We address these findings by studying a decision maker who has recursive, nonexpected utility preferences over compound lotteries. The decision maker has preferences for one‐shot resolution of uncertainty if he always prefers any compound lottery to be resolved in a single stage. We establish an equivalence between dynamic preferences for one‐shot resolution of uncertainty and static preferences that are identified with commonly observed behavior in Allais‐type experiments. The implications of this equivalence on preferences over information systems are examined. We define the gradual resolution premium and demonstrate its magnifying effect when combined with the usual risk premium.     

新型农村合作医疗的参合补助——悖论及路径优化

新农合的财政补助水平与农民需求存在较大缺口,客观上需要政府提高补助水平。但由于农民有限理性的存在,在个人缴费在先且与财政补助同比增长的制度安排下,形成了农民既需要参合补助,又不愿因增加个人缴费以获得补助的悖论,且此情况会因制度供给缺陷而激化。因此,需要对新农合的参合补助路径进行优化。设计灵活的参合缴费模式,调整农民缴费与政府补助的增长幅度,提高农民医疗补偿的比例都是可行的选择。     

林纾对哈葛德冒险与神怪小说的解读

哈葛德的冒险与神怪小说是林译小说中数量较多、影响较大的作品,正是这些通俗小说成为中国新小说的效法对象.林纾在翻译过程中通过序跋实现了译者对原本的干预,忽略了西方冒险与神怪小说中的个人主义因素,特别突出中国传统中所缺乏的"贼性"与"盗气",将西方人炫耀种族优势的小说作为抵抗帝国主义入侵中国的武器.但正是这一点.凸现了他意欲在屈从于西方话语之后获取攻击帝国主义力量的困境.     

“自组织悖论”与社会组织进化动力辨识

在人类社会演化过程中,组织进化动力是来自于组织外部还是组织内部、是社会系统自我演进还是受人(组织者)为设计和干预,始终是学术界争论不休的一个问题,观点很难取得一致,系统自组织理论的发展,使争论更为复杂化,文章提出社会系统要素的意识特征必须纳入考虑的范围之内,并分析了社会组织进化动力的来源。     

Ambiguity aversion in the small and in the large for weighted linear utility

The widely observed preference for lotteries involving precise rather than vague of ambiguous probabilities is called ambiguity aversion. Ambiguity aversion cannot be predicted or explained by conventional expected utility models. For the subjectively weighted linear utility (SWLU) model, we define both probability and payoff premiums for ambiguity, and introduce alocal ambiguity aversion function a(u) that is proportional to these ambiguity premiums for small uncertainties. We show that one individual's ambiguity premiums areglobally larger than another's if and only if hisa(u) function is everywhere larger. Ambiguity aversion has been observed to increase 1) when the mean probability of gain increases and 2) when the mean probability of loss decreases. We show that such behavior is equivalent toa(u) increasing in both the gain and loss domains. Increasing ambiguity aversion also explains the observed excess of sellers' over buyers' prices for insurance against an ambiguous probability of loss.     

我国上市公司融资偏好悖论的经济学思考

我国上市公司的融资偏好表现为重股票融资,轻债务融资,与现代资本结构理论揭示的"融资优序"相反,这种现象被称为"融资偏好悖论"。融资成本悖论、融资效率悖论是融资偏好悖论的特征表现;对融资偏好悖论的经济学分析,是修正融资偏好悖论的理论根基。     

DeFinettian Consensus

It is always possible to construct a real function , given random quantities X and Y with continuous distribution functions F and G, respectively, in such a way that (X) and (Y), also random quantities, have both the same distribution function, say H. This result of De Finetti introduces an alternative way to somehow describe the `opinion' of a group of experts about a continuous random quantity by the construction of Fields of coincidence of opinions (FCO). A Field of coincidence of opinions is a finite union of intervals where the opinions of the experts coincide with respect to that quantity of interest. We speculate on (dis)advantages of Fields of Opinion compared to usual `probability' measures of a group and on their relation with a continuous version of the well-known Allais' paradox.     

两种不同的悖论观——情境语义学解悖方案与次协调逻辑解悖方案比较研究

情境语义学解悖方案与次协调逻辑解悖方案反映了两种不同的悖论观,二者在以下四个方面存在重大差异:(1)对悖论中所包含的矛盾认识不同;(2)解悖思路不同;(3)对悖论产生根源问题认识不同;(4)解悖结果不同.     

韩礼德的情态悖论之说是非谈

本文试图从缺省语义学(default semantics)角度阐明Halliday有关情态使用的悖论之说的合理性.本文指出:(1)情态形式或多或少涉及不确定因素,因此非情态极性形式具有比高量值情态形式更强的确定性;(2)极性形式在有些语境中的肯定程度与情态形式之所以没有区分是因为它默认了情态意义;(3)评价大都属于非情态极性化语义范畴,体现了非情态意义的主观性,但评价有时也可隐喻情态,与客观情态相融合.