突发事件应急管理中的情景适应度研究

在突发事件的处置过程中,每个阶段对情景的确定决定了突发事件应急管理的工作方式和决策制定的指向性,从而影响整体应急管理工作的总体决策判断。本文主要针对突发事件应急情景选取问题,由粗到细的采用具有语义接近范围的情景适应度方式和情景属性云匹配方式进行情景确定问题的收敛,从而能够相对精确的确定应急处置过程中的情景,为系统决策提供支持。     

Postdisaster Housing Stages: A Markov Chain Approach to Model Sequences and Duration Based on Social Vulnerability

Housing recovery is an unequal and complex process presumed to occur in four stages: emergency shelter, temporary shelter, temporary housing, and permanent housing. This work questions the four-stage typology and examines how different types of shelter align with multiple housing recovery stages given different levels of social vulnerability. This article also presents a Markov chain model of the postdisaster housing recovery process that focuses on the experience of the household. The model predicts the sequence and timing of a household going through housing recovery, capturing households that end in either permanent housing or a fifth possible stage of failure. The probability of a household transitioning through the stages is computed using a transition probability matrix (TPM). The TPM is assembled using proposed transition probability models that vary with the social vulnerability of the household. Monte Carlo techniques are applied to demonstrate the range of sequences and timing that households experience going through the housing recovery process. A set of computational rules are established for sending a household to the fifth stage, representing a household languishing in unstable housing. This predictive model is exemplified on a virtual community, Centerville, where following a severe earthquake scenario, differences in housing recovery times exceed four years. The Centerville analysis results in nearly 5% of households languishing in unstable housing, thereby failing to reach housing recovery. These findings highlight the disparate trajectories experienced by households with different levels of social vulnerability. Recommendations are provided at the end for more equitable postdisaster recovery policies.     

四川盆地雷口坡组层序岩相古地理

针对四川盆地各矿区雷口坡组地层划分方案不统一，且受早印支运动的影响，雷口坡组顶部岩溶带地层垮塌破坏，造成地层内幕划分及岩相古地理恢复困难的难题，以层序地层学理论与方法为指导，重新厘定了盆地内雷口坡组的地层划分方案，以四级层序为作图单元进行层序岩相古地理重建。高精度的层序岩相古地理研究表明，雷口坡期四川盆地处于局限–蒸发海环境，在川西北一带靠近松潘—甘孜海槽一带发育有台地边缘，台地内部颗粒滩和台地边缘颗粒滩构成了雷口坡组的勘探主体。岩相古地理的演化表明，雷口坡组沉积时期盆地底形发生了东倾向西倾“跷跷板”式的转换，在层序I 早期仍保持了早三叠世西高东低的地形格局，至层序III 沉积期东倾趋势消失，层序IVV 沉积时期盆地内隆凹格局略具雏形。伴随着构造挤压运动的加剧，从层序VI 开始盆地底形隆凹格局分异加剧，形成巨厚膏盐盆，膏盐盆沉积中心在层序VIX 沉积时期具有明显西移的趋势。     

70年代国外习得顺序研究综述(二)

本文回顾了70年代句子习得顺序的相关研究,主要涉及否定句、疑问句的习得顺序的相关研究,也提及70年代提出的关于关系从句的习得顺序的三大研究假设,最后指出70年代习得顺序研究的意义和不足之处以及之后该领域的主要研究动态。     

Classroom sex composition and first-grade school outcomes: The role of classroom behavior

Using nationally representative data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten Cohort (N = 21,409; 10,452 girls and 10,957 boys; mean age = 7.24 years), the association between first-grade classroom sex composition (CSC), measured as the percentage of female students, and end of the year academic (reading, mathematics) and socio-emotional (externalizing problems, internalizing problems, self-control, interpersonal skills) outcomes was examined. Using multilevel modeling techniques and controlling for prior achievement levels, CSC was positively associated with children’s reading achievement at the end of first grade; students performed better in reading in classes with a higher percentage of female students. CSC was also associated with three of the socio-emotional outcomes; controlling for prior levels, students in classrooms with a higher percentage of girls had better self-control and interpersonal skills and fewer internalizing problems. Classroom behavior mediated the effects of CSC on reading achievement and the socio-emotional outcomes. Implications for the composition of first-grade classrooms are discussed.     

"中心"的心理暗示——视觉审美研究

具有中心感的视觉形象能给人以强大的心理统摄力,并对审美产物的最终形成产生决定性影响。将这种中心感定义为一种能明确感知的、直观的整体视觉特征,并将其丰富的心理暗示划分为三个方面,即归属感、等级感和稳定感。归属感代表着人们对母体、源头等身心归宿的强烈回归愿望,等级感则与归属感一脉相承,其在人们心中高于它物的崇高地位使之成为权利象征,一些皇权建筑形象的选择就源于此。而稳定感则顺利完成了从空间概念到时间概念的转换,在审美过程中常作为永恒的象征出现。通过这三方面对"中心"的详尽分析,揭示出视觉审美研究的核心问题应该是欣赏者的心理分析,并期望以此研究方式对其作出一些有益探索。     

Anthropology,Dance, and Education: Integrated Curriculum in Social Studies

The integration of dance into K–12 curriculum can help students to learn better, encouraging deeper exploration and active engagement with content knowledge. The purpose of this intervention study was to determine how the integration of dance and social studies with an anthropological framework affects student learning of content knowledge in social studies, as well as student attitude toward the topic. An anthropological framework was implemented to foster respectful investigation of culture. As a supplement to a sixth-grade unit on Ancient Egypt, the experimental group received four intervention lessons, incorporating creative dance. Results show that at posttest the intervention group had significantly higher content knowledge than the control group, and qualitative student responses from the intervention group suggest extremely positive feelings toward experiences in the program. This suggests that incorporating dance into sixth-grade social studies with an anthropological framework can encourage student exploration and increase understanding of content.     

传统行政文化对决策科学化与民主化的负面影响

传统行政文化是影响到决策的深层因素,其思维模式、权威型人格、差序格局和知识阶层的依附性对决策产生了负面影响,是决策科学化与民主化的主要障碍。决策要实现科学化与民主化,除了要进行制度上的改革,更应该从基础因素入手,即促进我国行政文化的创新。     

波兰语义学派NSM理论对情感词汇的语义解释力

每种语言都为本民族提供了一套阐释范畴,并按照不同的认知图景使人们的情感体验概念化。这些认知图景又与特定语言的词汇范畴联系在一起,因而赋予了特定文化的价值、态度和意义。波兰语义学派的自然语义元语言(NSM)理论从跨语言和跨文化的视角来研究情感概念及其意义。通过梳理前人的有关论述,以自然语义元语言理论为框架,以普遍性语义基元为释义单位,探讨了NSM理论的化简释义方法及其对情感词汇的语义解释力,展示了应用NSM这一用途广泛的释义工具来准确地表征情感概念的意义。普遍的人类概念是构成人类理解情感概念的基石。基于60多个人类普遍概念的NSM研究方法,无疑将有助于我们更好地理解和把握不同文化的人类情感概念。