关于旅游本义的思考——从海洋看人类旅游

人类生活有两个基本样态--定居和行走.在唯物史观看来,行走就是旅游的本义.行走过程中探索着未知的领域,其中包含着享乐和游戏,这种行走也就是旅游.享乐和游戏被凸现为旅游的主要含义,只是一段历史时期中的现象.如今,知识经济和全球化的发展,已使人类旅游重新展现出了行走的本义.     

Modeling cooperation among self-interested agents: a critique

This paper reviews recent attempts to model cooperation in groups of self-interested unrelated individuals. It concludes that no empirically plausible model has been developed, and the economist's quest for an explanation of human prosociality in terms of self-interested agents has not been successful. We show that the equilibrium criteria employed in standard game-theoretic models have no attractive dynamic properties, and the mechanisms deployed in these models are not generally seen in empirical examples of cooperative groups. We also show that these models are not robust to plausible rates of signaling error and mutation. We present an alternative, involving strongly reciprocal agents, that satisfies all the requirements for a dynamically stable model of cooperation.     

A group sequential test for the inverse Gaussian mean

The present paper deals with the development of a group sequential test when response variable has an inverse Gaussian distribution with known scale parameter.     

Adaptive interval estimation in one-way random effects models

Two-stage procedures are introduced to control the width and coverage (validity) of confidence intervals for the estimation of the mean, the between groups variance component and certain ratios of the variance components in one-way random effects models. The procedures use the pilot sample data to estimate an “optimal” group size and then proceed to determine the number of groups by a stopping rule. Such sampling plans give rise to unbalanced data, which are consequently analyzed by the harmonic mean method. Several asymptotic results concerning the proposed procedures are given along with simulation results to assess their performance in moderate sample size situations. The proposed procedures were found to effectively control the width and probability of coverage of the resulting confidence intervals in all cases and were also found to be robust in the presence of missing observations. From a practical point of view, the procedures are illustrated using a real data set and it is shown that the resulting unbalanced designs tend to require smaller sample sizes than is needed in a corresponding balanced design where the group size is arbitrarily pre-specified.     

Bayesian monitoring of local residual autocorrelations taking into account the run-length

This paper proposes new two-sided monitoring algorithms for detecting the presence of first order residual autocorrelations in Dynamic Normal Models. The methodology uses a Bayesian decision approach with loss function which takes into account the run-length of the process. The power and mean run-length of the proposed algorithms are analysed by Monte Carlo methods. The results obtained improve those corresponding to the monitoring algorithm for residual autocorrelations proposed in Gargallo and Salvador [2003. Monitoring residual autocorrelations in dynamic linear models. Comm. Statist. Simulation Comput. 32(4), 1079–1104.] with respect to the run-length, and also exhibit more homogeneous behaviour.     

促进3-6岁儿童人格特质培育的微型戏剧游戏活动设计与实施

3-6岁儿童人格品质的发展对于幼儿一生的可持续发展具有重要作用,本研究尝试以微型戏剧游戏为载体,通过确立人格特质培育目标,创编有人格陶冶意义的戏剧故事,遵循重视情境导入、引导感受音乐、互动创编故事、组织戏剧表演和反思提升的五步骤活动流程,以及营造故事情境、优化游戏环节、树立典型榜样、巧设两难情境、发挥正向激励、践行人格行为六类实施策略来帮助幼儿发展积极人格特质。研究表明,微型戏剧游戏作为开展人格培育活动的有效载体,对促进幼儿自护、勇敢、交往、关怀、诚信、合作等积极人格特质的养成具有积极成效。