A comparison study of realtime fatality rates: severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Toronto and Beijing, China

Summary.  In an outbreak of a completely new infectious disease like severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), estimation of the fatality rate over the course of the epidemic is of clinical and epidemiological importance. In contrast with the constant case fatality rate, a new measure, termed the 'realtime' fatality rate, is proposed for monitoring the new emerging epidemic at a population level. A competing risk model implemented via a counting process is used to estimate the realtime fatality rate in an epidemic of SARS. It can capture and reflect the time-varying nature of the fatality rate over the course of the outbreak in a timely and accurate manner. More importantly, it can provide information on the efficacy of a certain treatment and management policy for the disease. The method has been applied to the SARS data from the regions affected, namely Hong Kong, Singapore, Toronto, Taiwan and Beijing. The magnitudes and patterns of the estimated fatalities are virtually the same except in Beijing, which has a lower rate. It is speculated that the effect is linked to the different treatment protocols that were used. The standard estimate of the case fatality rate that was used by the World Health Organization has been shown to be unable to provide useful information to monitor the time-varying fatalities that are caused by the epidemic.     

关于声发射法在塑性加工中应用的研究——塑性加工界面摩擦润滑状态的分析(Ⅱ)

本文用声发射法分析了塑性加工界面摩擦润滑状态。得到了金属拉拔时,声发射事件总数与拉拔速度,断面收缩率,润滑油粘度之间的关系。从声发射参数的变化,可看出界面状态变化的情况。因此,用声发射法可对塑性加工界面上的摩擦润滑状态的变化,进行动态下实时监测,进而可为产品的加工质量监控,提供新的方法。     

塑料注射机节能问题的研究与探讨

本文针对 XS—ZY—125型塑料注射成型机,分析了现行通用的双联泵供油液压系统耗能大的原因。介绍了压力流量补偿负荷传感液压系统在注射机上应用的基本原理。通过应用上述两种液压系统分别驱动同一台注射机的生产运行对比试验和能耗测试分析,证明压力流量补偿负荷传感液压系统具有十分显著的节能效果。通过经济效益估算分析,指出进一步开发压力流量补偿负荷传感液压系统在注射机上的应用,不仅具有十分显著的经济效益,而且具有很大的社会效益。     

中国北方民族桦树皮器物的造型艺术

中国北方民族很早就开始用桦树皮制作各种器物,随着各民族文化特征的逐渐形成,各民族的桦树皮器在造型上也体现出不同的风格,创造了融民族性、地域性为一体的桦树皮器物的造型和装饰艺术。桦树皮文化与陶器文化有着内在的联系,反映着狩猎文化、牧业文化与农业文化之间的相互影响。     

Critical Components in Implementing Evidence‐based Practice: A Multiple Case Study of Individual Placement and Support for People with Psychiatric Disabilities

When developing Community Mental Health Services to support people with psychiatric disabilities, European countries are advocating evidence ‐based practice (EBP ). Individual Placement and Support (IPS ) is an evidence ‐based model designed to support people in acquiring and maintaining competitive employment. Implementation science is a growing research field, with a focus on components that impact the process of implementing EBP programmes. In this multiple case study, we have followed three IPS demonstration sites for two years, in order to describe and analyze barriers and facilitators for implementation, according to constructs described in the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (Damschroder et al. 2009 ). The results highlight the importance of strategic networking, as well as the need for planning and preparations carried out before the start of an EBP programme, since deficiencies related to these constructs are difficult to compensate for.      

塑胶产品缩痕、 空洞产生原因及改善方法

缩痕与空洞是塑胶产品常见的产品质量问题,文章分析了其产生的原因,并提出相应的改善原则：包括修改产品几何特征、浇口位置及大小以及成型工艺参数等方面。同时采用均匀设计方法,利用Moldflow软件建立仿真模型,进行有限的仿真实验来获得较优的改善方案。最后通过实际产品案例进行了应用验证,结果表明该方法可有效地改善缩痕与空洞缺陷。     

游戏机手柄上盖注射模设计

文章分析了游戏机手柄上盖塑料件的工艺特点,介绍了游戏机手柄上盖注射模结构设计和工作过程。该模具采用浇口开设在顶杆上,在分型时实现自动拉断凝料,同时将曲面分型改为平面分型,降低模具加工的难度,节约成本和提高注塑、脱模的稳定性。生产实践证明,该套模具结构合理,运行可靠。     

销孔间隙与孔壁承压容许应力取值研究

销连接是现代钢结构连接常用的形式,然而销孔与销轴之间不可避免地存在间隙。利用ANSYS软件研究销孔间隙对耳板孔壁承压容许应力的影响。在弹塑性阶段,通过详细的数值分析以塑性区面积为“桥梁”研究了销孔间隙对耳板孔壁承压建议容许应力的影响。将得到的离散数据进行解析拟合,给出了耳板承压建议容许应力随销孔间隙变化的公式。     

面具的诱惑——从后现代主义视角解读韩国电影《时间》

韩国故事影片《时间》是导演金基德精心谱写的一曲潘多拉式的时代悲歌。该片呈现了整容手术对现代社会的致命吸引力和毁灭性打击的两难境地。作为整部影片中最主要的隐喻,整容手术被置于一种后现代式的审视和沉思之中。片中人物的精心刻画,故事情节和艺术手法的异乎寻常无一不透露出后现代主义倾向。     

城市女性白领整容时尚消费的社会学解读

文章采用问卷调查法和个案访谈法相结合的方式对福州女性白领的整容时尚消费情况进行实证调查,进而对调查的结果进行社会学分析。结果发现：整容在中国已经逐渐成为普遍现象,被人们所接受,且被视为个人选择;人们出于追求时尚、改变原有形象、受朋友或美容师劝说、表达个性和自我认同、一时冲动、社会认同、获得好的平台或找到更好的工作等动机而选择整容;在整容过程中,朋友的意见对决定的产生起比较重要的作用;此外人们会受经济、安全、家人反对等因素困扰其是否整容。