Response shrinkage estimation in multinomial logit models

A shrinkage estimation method for multinomial logit models is developed. The proposed method is based on shrinking the responses for each category towards the underlying probabilities. The estimator is also used in combination with Pregibon's resistant fitting. The resulting estimator can also be used to control the over-estimation of Pregibon's resistant estimator. The proposed method handles not only the problem of separation in multinomial logit models but estimates also exist when the number of covariates is large relative to the sample size. Estimates exist even when the MLE does not exist. Estimates can be easily computed with all commonly used statistical packages supporting the fitting procedures with weights. Estimates are compared with the usual MLE and Firth's bias reduction technique in a simulation study and an application.     

《诗经》“雨雪霏霏”考辨──兼析《十三经注疏》对《诗经》八处“雨雪”之训释

《十三经注疏》将《诗经·小雅·采薇》“雨雪霏霏”一句中的“雨雪”释为动词“下雪”,通行的诸多注译本和教材也都如此解释。但从训诂学、语法学及《诗经》自身体例等角度分析,“雨雪霏霏”中“雨雪”应为名词,即“雨”和“雪”之义,“霏霏”为形容词,即“雨雪盛貌”。此外,考《诗经》其他7处“雨雪”,应释为名词的为《邶风·北风》“雨雪其雾”与“雨雪其霏”以及《小雅·出车》“雨雪载涂”中的“雨雪”;应释为动词“下雪”义的为《小雅·信南山》“雨雪雰雰”和《小雅·頍弁》“如彼雨雪”以及《小雅·角弓》“雨雪瀌瀌”与“雨雪浮浮”中的“雨雪”。     

俄罗斯经济转轨过程中的影子经济

本文分析了俄罗斯经济中一个无处不在、规模巨大、影响深远的奇特经济现象———影子经济。通过对这一现象的现状和运行机制以及成因与后果的深度剖析 ,指出造成俄罗斯改革 1 0年以来影子经济泛滥的主要原因是盲目的私有化、自由主义的市场取向和不恰当的具体经济政策 ,而且影子经济对俄罗斯的影响将是长期而深远的     

论复州皮影的保护与利用

复州皮影历史悠久、文化内涵深厚,于2006年入选国家首批非物质文化遗产。文章对复州皮影的历史概况进行梳理,分析了复州皮影的价值;针对复州皮影面临的诸多问题,提出复州皮影的保护与利用的对策,以期使复州皮影这一珍贵的非物质文化遗产能够可持续发展。     

有关《蒙古字韵》的几个问题

《蒙古字韵》《蒙古韵略》《蒙古韵》是性质相同名称不同的韵书,另外还有《蒙古韵编》《蒙古韵类》等不同称呼。《蒙古韵编》应当是1270年至1286年之间产生的,《蒙古韵略》《蒙古韵》也应该在这个时间段。《蒙古字韵》是1308年朱宗文校订诸书时择其善者命名的。《蒙古字韵》的字头对汉字来讲是一个标音的类别,不是音值的描写。《蒙古字韵》就是蒙古字拼写的汉字韵,分析《蒙古字韵》要以汉字韵为基准。     

蒙古族佛教劝善故事浅论——以“还魂人的故事”为例

佛教劝善故事“还魂人的故事”是随着藏传佛教传入蒙古地区的,其中《乔吉德仙女传》和《古苏喇嘛传》在蒙古族中的影响相对深远。这两个“还魂人的故事”与古代蒙古法律文献之间具有诸多可比之处,特别是在保护喇嘛阶层特权方面,佛教劝善故事和古代法律文献之间是互为表里的。     

《古赋辩体》之后的元朝赋论

《古赋辩体》之后的元朝赋论大都深受祝尧"祖骚宗汉"复古思想的影响,不过他们对祝尧所论也多有补益,有的对其未曾涉及的领域有所论述,有的对其偏颇与矛盾之处有所更正,有的还扩大了学习古赋的范围。虽然这些赋论由于缺乏系统性,历来关注较少,但对于元后期辞赋的复古思潮却起了推波助澜的作用,具有独特的价值,可视为对祝尧赋论的补充。     

《解老》 《喻老》的性质及其文体学意义

《解老》与《喻老》是《韩非子》当中两篇可称为"解释体"的文章,尽管其思想内容、文章风格有一定的差异,但其整体上却有着一致性,从性质来说,都是对《老子》的解释之作。《解老》当是韩非求学于荀卿时所作,并非专题性论文,而更像是读《老子》的注解,亦有读书笔记的性质。《喻老》当为韩非后期重读《老子》所作的解说之文。正是这种创作时期的不同,使得二者甚至在文本上也有了一定的差异。这类文章的文体学意义主要体现在对传统"经说体"的继承与发展上。     

从《今体诗钞》看姚鼐的诗歌批评

姚鼐诗学于乾嘉时期自成一家,其《今体诗钞》后世流传较广,明显体现出作者的诗歌批评特点。姚鼐评选诗歌重才力、尚奇警,以文法解诗、注重考据,并采用了圈点的批评形式。     

Cyber-Laundering: The Union Between New Electronic Payment Systems and Criminal Organizations

Cosa Nostra, ‘Ndrangheta, Camorra, Sacra Corona Unita, Stidda, Triad, Yacuza, Russian Mafia, American Cosa Nostra, Chinese Triads, Wo Hop To, Sun Yee On, 14 K, these are only some of the criminal organizations considered as the “magnates” (particularly with the meaning in power) of national and international crime and/or organized criminality. Together with the aforementioned criminal organizations, we may consider many other organizations, particularly those of the terroristic type which, although having different characteristic activities as opposed to the former, share the same modalities of financing and/or laundering of the gains deriving from the activities carried out. Studies and research, but mainly financial police operations, have often brought out the channels, systems and modalities, by means of which great amounts of money of criminal origin or destined to criminality are cleaned up and/or introduced into the financial circuits.