我国汇率制度的选择

在中国逐步走向开放经济,经济体制转轨的背景下,现行的盯住汇率制度降低了货币政策的独立性,制约了利率市场化改革的进程,减弱了应对外部冲击的能力,进一步增强了外汇储备的内生性和汇率风险.我国现实经济条件决定了人民币汇率制度改革的方向是建立汇率目标区制度.汇率目标区制度的设计符合中国金融市场渐进式的开放路径,选择汇率目标区可以避免人民币汇率单向运动带来的负面影响,增强汇率政策的有效性和灵活性.因此,需要构建合理的人民币汇率目标区体系,并进行相应配套政策措施的改革.     

Macroprudential policy and the probability of a banking crisis

The ultimate purpose of macroprudential policy is to avoid financial instability, such as banking crises, which have a long-lasting and devastating effect on the economy. Although a growing number of studies have examined the effects of macroprudential policy on credit growth, few empirical studies have analyzed its effect on the probability of a banking crisis. Does macroprudential policy actually affect the probability of a banking crisis? Do other macroeconomic policies matter for the effectiveness of macroprudential policy? To answer these questions, this paper empirically investigates the effect of macroprudential policy on the probability of a banking crisis and its relationship with other macroeconomic policies. Specifically, using data on 65 countries from 2000 to 2016, we employ a probit model to analyze the effect of changes in the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio on crisis probability. Our results show that macroprudential policy is effective in changing the probability of a banking crisis via a credit channel and that its effectiveness depends on other macroeconomic policies. Changes in the LTV ratio are found to be effective in influencing the probability of a banking crisis in countries that have inflation targeting frameworks, floating exchange rate regimes, and/or no capital controls. Our results underscore the importance of policy coordination among different government bodies to design an appropriate macroprudential policy, especially in the current context of the Covid-19 crisis.     

Income inequality,welfare regimes and aggregate health: Review of reviews

Wide income inequality in a society has been associated with worse aggregate health. Regarding the relationship, often termed as ‘the Wilkinson Hypothesis’, a number of empirical findings and related systematic reviews have reached inconsistent conclusions. In addition, the Scandinavian welfare regime is expected to have better aggregate health indicators in comparison with the other welfare regimes. The expectation is largely based on the Wilkinson Hypothesis because the regime has relatively narrow income inequalities. Again, related empirical findings and systematic reviews have produced inconsistent conclusions. This article reports on two rounds of ‘review of reviews’ (RR) over six previous (systematic) review articles. The first round of RR found that the review articles reached divergent conclusions. The second round of RR over another set of three review articles also demonstrated that their conclusions did not reach a consensus. Neither the hypothesised Scandinavia's good health nor the Wilkinson Hypothesis was given solid empirical backing.     

Convergence of family policy across welfare regimes (1990 to 2010): Different connotations of family policy expansion

Using multiple indices of family policy efforts – work/family reconciliation, gender equality and income protection, this study offers a nuanced understanding of family policy expansion in 14 OECD countries across three welfare regimes from 1990 to 2010. Findings suggest an overall convergence of family policies, particularly in gender equality and work/family reconciliation. Convergence has occurred simultaneously with distinctive family policy changes across welfare regimes. Conservative welfare states have experienced the most profound family policy alterations, shifting from a traditional gender model to one that encourages women's employment, but have, nevertheless, maintained policy efforts that sustain the traditional gender role. Despite an increase in their family policy efforts, liberal welfare states have continued to maintain minimal state action regarding family policy. Changes in social democratic welfare states have been less substantial, as they seem to continue to pursue a dual‐earner model with high degree of gender equality and work/family reconciliation.     

The Ahmao (Miao) schism: the problem of spiritual agency in encounters between church and state in southwest China

The majority of Ahmao in southwest China have been Christian since a mass conversion movement took place in the 1900s. Throughout the century, Ahmao congregations have gone through several reforms and survived many political campaigns. After two decades of prosperity through China’s reform era, since the 2000s many Ahmao congregations in northern Yunnan have experienced schisms. This paper sets out to investigate a schism that took place in a medium-size Ahmao congregation between 2005 and 2015. Based upon several years of continuous fieldwork, I found that the alleged schism in this Ahmao congregation – rather than describing a long-standing fracture in the community – appears intermittently and should be considered as an effect of religious regulation that problematizes the agency of spiritual practice. Under the regime of religious regulation in contemporary China, Ahmao congregations have been delicately negotiating between different modes of agency as changes in Christian practice become necessary or inevitable.     

Do Public Officials Trust Citizens? A Welfare State Perspective

In this exploratory study, we investigate whether public sector officials and non‐public sector officials differ in the trust they have in members of society and whether this difference is associated with the welfare regime in which they work. Using survey data from the sixth round of the European Social Survey, we compare public sector officials' trust to that of non‐public sector officials in 13 countries with four different forms of welfare regimes. Our results demonstrate that public officials have a higher level of trust than non‐public officials do. Furthermore, trust among both public and non‐public sector officials is much higher in social‐democratic regimes, followed by corporatist countries, liberal regimes, Israel (as a unique case) and, lastly, southern European regimes. As expected, public officials' degree of trust reflects the general trends of their societies. Interestingly, in social‐democratic regimes, differences between trust among public and non‐public officials are the highest compared to the other regimes. In addition, an individual‐level analysis in five countries illustrative of each welfare regime indicates that while income, belonging to a minority group, and age are significant factors in explaining public officials' trust, socio‐demographic variables contribute little to the differences between public and non‐public officials. Given the critical role of trust in the functioning of the welfare state, our results imply that further awareness and mechanisms for increasing the degree of trust of citizens among public officials are warranted.     

不同黏性对中国经济波动和货币政策的影响——基于贝叶斯估计的新凯恩斯 DSGE 模型

考察了中国宏观经济波动和货币政策． 研究结果显示: 包含 3 种黏性机制的 DSGE 模型比传统的仅含一种黏性机制的 DSGE 模型能更好地拟合和解释中国现实经济特征; 黏性信息企业占中国全部企业 54． 01% ,混合黏性价格企业占 43． 63% ,弹性价格企业占 2． 36% ; 不同黏性机制下,外生冲击对经济变量波动的解释度存在显著差异,并且经济变量对外生冲击的脉冲响应及动态调整路径存在显著差异; 对不同黏性机制行业的通胀做出系统性反应能够提高中国货币政策有效性．     

新加坡汇率制度分析及其前景

新加坡是一个小型开放的经济体，它采用有管理的浮动汇率制作为货币政策的中心。本文分析了新加坡汇率制度的历史演变、制度框架以及发展前景，着重分析了新加坡有管理的浮动汇率制的基本框架、运行机制、现实基础、利弊以及实际运行效果。     

碰撞与调适：1942年的延安文学生态

在革命现实主义的发展历程中，合法的红色政权延安边区政府的出现，为革命现实主义文学带来了新的生机和新的本质。对于自由的个性化的20世纪30年代左翼文学来说，延安时期是一个左翼知识分子与政党国家之间的碰撞时期，当然也是一个相互磨合，并最终以左翼知识分子调整自我以适应环境的时期。这一时期对中国现代文学的当代化至关重要，它奠定了当代左翼知识分子与政党国家之间关系的基本格局，也形成了当代文学的基本的制度，更为当代文学的创作倾向确立了总体的方向。