近代粤商对百色经济文化的影响

百色地处桂西右江上游,是滇黔桂三省区交界处,属于典型的老、少、边、山、穷地区,但其城市语言却为粤语,主要原因为近代大量粤商沿着右江进入百色城经商所带来的影响。     

对我国环境影响评价中公众参与的思考

公众参与对于环境影响评价的实施有着至关重要的意义。我国新出台的《环境影响评价法》有关公众参与的内容和程序方面的规定明显不足 ,扩大公众参与的范围 ,设计尽可能明确具体的公众参与程序 ,尤其是相当重要的信息公开程序、说明会程序、听证程序、环境影响评价文件审查程序等 ,并辅之以司法审查的保障机制 ,才能完善我国环境影响评价中的公众参与制度 ,从而使环境影响评价在实践中真正发挥作用     

中国银行业竞争战略研究

中国正式加入WTO对于处于金融变革时期的中国银行业而言 ,既面临着巨大的挑战和竞争 ,又面临着巨大的发展空间 ,机遇与挑战并存 ,如何应对这种超竞争环境 ,制定行之有效的竞争战略 ,提高中国银行业的内外竞争力 ,就成为亟待解决的问题。     

Modelling Trends and Inequality in Small Area Mortality

This paper considers the modelling of mortality rates classified by age, time, and small area with a view to developing life table parameters relevant to assessing trends in inequalities in life chances. In particular, using a fully Bayes perspective, one may assess the stochastic variation in small area life table parameters, such as life expectancies, and also formally assess whether trends in indices of inequality in mortality are significant. Modelling questions include choice between random walk priors for age and time effects as against non-linear regression functions, questions of identifiability when several random effects are present in the death rates model, and the choice of model when both within and out-of-sample performance may be important. A case study application involves 44 small areas in North East London and mortality in five sub-periods (1986-88, 1989-91, 1992-94, 1995-97, 1998-2000) between 1986 and 2000, with the final period used for assessing out-of-sample performance.     

佛教故事群中的女性——以《经律异相》之记载为中心

成书于南朝梁的《经律异相》,是我国最早的一部佛教故事类书。其中的女性故事,写得也是多姿多彩,往往通过生动、通俗的故事形式,向信众宣传布施、持戒等佛教基本教义,并让今天的读者得以了解印度当年的妇女生活状况。在文学性上,既注重人物性格的典型性与复杂性,又能做到情节曲折、语言生动,在文学与文献学上有着重要的研究价值。     

微博反腐的正能量与副作用

互联网的飞速发展和广泛普及,让公众参与反腐倡廉的渠道大大拓宽了。我国社会的互联网舆论环境已发生不可逆转的变化,微博和网络平台成为公众行使监督政府履行职能的参与工具,为反腐倡廉带来了正能量。但同时,其副作用同样也很明显,这使得微博空间治理成为一个复杂的新课题。在保障公众参与反腐的前提下,当务之急需解决好网络反腐的无序化、自生长问题,将其纳入法治化、制度化轨道。唯此,公众履行社会监督的正能量才能得到进一步释放。     

Beyond Welfare Regimes: From Empirical Typology to Conceptual Ideal types

The welfare regime concept introduced by Gøsta Esping‐Andersen in 1990 is still widely used in comparative political research, although it has been challenged extensively both on empirical and analytical grounds. Besides the fact that many empirical welfare states seem to be hybrid cases of the established welfare regime categories, the argument that welfare regimes exist not only at the country level but also at the local level and at the level of particular welfare programmes has recently gained momentum in the academic literature. In this article, it is argued that the welfare regime concept should be stripped of its historical‐geographical connotations and turned into an ideal‐typical approach. To this end, a three‐dimensional model is proposed here that allows for analyzing the attributes of welfare states, welfare regions and welfare programmes on three analytical dimensions: welfare culture, welfare institutions and socio‐structural effects.     

The validity of the occupational stress indicator

During the last two decades two potent groups of predictors for work-related musculoskeletal problems have been identified: physical work load and poor psychosocial working conditions. However, little is known about their combined effects. In this study the buffering effect of control at work with respect to the negative effects of psychological demands and physical work load on musculoskeletal problems is examined. All study variables were sampled from 431 people working in geriatric nursing homes in Germany by means of questionnaires. Main effects and interactions were tested with multiple regression analysis. The results showed that control buffered the effects of high psychological demands, but not of high physical work load; the buffering effect of control was observed only when physical work load was low. The combined effects of demands and physical work load were over-additive. Thus, the power of different predictors for musculoskeletal symptoms depended on the level of other predictors. This suggests that the efficiency of certain strategies for the prevention of musculoskeletal problems is likely to depend on the level of risk factors, with different strategies being appropriate for different levels of risk.     

民生目标下政府的支出竞争和福利效应

本文研究不同政绩考核目标下地方政府间财政支出决策的互动机制,使用全国地级城市面板数据和空间杜宾模型估计地方政府支出反应方程,并利用民生类公共支出竞争的空间效应拟合值估计其对居民福利的影响。空间计量分析表明,同省辖区内的城市在基本公共服务支出政策方面存在相互模仿攀比,民生类公共支出竞争不仅提高了辖区民生类公共服务水平,而且牵动了各辖区的居民消费。研究结果为如何完善地方官员考核体系和提高民众福利提供了政策启示。     

SVARMA模型的设定、方差分解分析和应用

本文首先研究了传统凯恩斯主义IS-LM-PC模型的SVARMA模型表示,为宏观经济计量分析建立SVARMA模型提供了模型设定依据;其次,建立了VARMA/SVARMA模型方差分解分析方法;另外,基于SVARMA模型对中国宏观经济政策的动态效应进行了实证分析,实证分析发现（1）SVARMA模型与SVAR模型的分析结果存在重要的区别;（2）在政策实施6-7期前后,财政政策和货币政策对抑制通货膨胀的效果发生逆转;（3）宏观经济的价格水平存在粘性;（4）货币供给冲击对通货膨胀率的变化具有滞后的正向影响,对实际产出的影响不明显等。