Simultaneous Confidence Intervals for the Ratios of Marginal Means of a Multivariate Poisson Distribution

This article computes simultaneous confidence intervals for the ratios of marginal means of a multivariate Poisson distribution. For this, we propose a lognormal approximation technique and a bootstrap method. We demonstrate advantages of the proposed methods over existing ones through a simulation study. To illustrate their applicability to real-world problems, we apply the proposed methods to US data on infectious diseases.     

论培根归纳逻辑

弗兰西斯·培根在对旧逻辑批判的基础上,创立了以观察和实验为基础的归纳法--科学归纳法.培根归纳法的问世,创立了近代归纳逻辑的第一个形态.培根归纳法的特质包括其归纳法是一种排除归纳法,突出了分析方法,注重证据的质量,与实验自然科学的兴起相适应,其归纳方法论包含着某些朴素的辩证法因素.尽管,培根的归纳法有一定的局限性;但是,培根的归纳法在近现代归纳逻辑的发展中的影响和作用是不容低估的.应当用唯物辩证法的观点和方式,对培根的归纳法进行认识和评价.     

A combination multiple comparisons and subset selection procedure to identify treatments that are strictly inferior to the best

This paper considers the problem of identifying which treatments are strictly worse than the best treatment or treatments in a one-way layout, which has many important applications in screening trials for new product development. A procedure is proposed that selects a subset of the treatments containing only treatments that are known to be strictly worse than the best treatment or treatments. In addition, simultaneous confidence intervals are obtained which provide upper bounds on how inferior the treatments are compared with these best treatments. In this way, the new procedure shares the characteristics of both subset selection procedures and multiple comparison procedures. Some tables of critical points are provided for implementing the new procedure, and some examples of its use are given.     

Properties and Applications of the Generalized Likelihood as a Summary Function for Prediction Problems

The generalized likelihood plays an important role in parametric inference for prediction and empirical Bayesian models. This paper emphasizes the utility of the generalized likelihood as a summarization procedure in general prediction models. Properties of the generalized likelihood when used in this setting, and examples of its use as a data analytic tool are given in a series of numerical examples.     

商业银行贷款组合动态优化模型研究

以银行各项资产组合收益最大化为目标函数,以法律、法规和经营管理约束为条件,运用逆向递推原理和线性规划方法,建立了商业银行贷款组合动态优化模型。创新与特色主要在于考虑了不同区段贷款效益对全部区段贷款总体效益的相互影响,运用逆向递推原理,在考虑所有贷款区间全部收益最优化的前提下,优化配给区间段的贷款配给,使得全部区段的整体贷款配给达到最优。     

中国回旋管的发展计划(英文)

本文介绍在回旋管领域开展的研究工作及电子回旋谐振加热在中国的应用。同时,还报道在回旋管领域提出的新概念和取得的成果。     

非合作状态下制造商与垄断供应商之间的谈判博弈研究

通过构造一个2级供应链,建立了垄断供应商和制造商在非合作状态下的博弈模型,利用逆向归纳法求出了垄断供应商和制造商的非合作均衡解,并证明了垄断供应商优先选择生产成本低的制造商作为谈判对象.同时,提出了制造商之间的技术实力差距对非合作均衡态的影响,如果2个制造商之间的技术实力相差悬殊,市场将出现比较稳定的非合作均衡现象,如果技术实力接近,将出现争夺谈判权的博弈现象.     

网络时代的中国社会规则变迁——从二元规则转向三元规则

网络时代背景下,网络集体行动、网络问政、网络监督在虚拟空间逐渐形成新的网络规则,并向现实公共空间延伸。网络时代社会规则系统由二元规则博弈演变为三元规则博弈,三重规则形成既对立又统一的规则统一体,规则间博弈态势决定着社会规则系统的整体结构,进而改变个体行为与策略选择的规则背景。     

吉林省建筑节能领域存在的问题与对策分析

当前,我省建筑行业能耗巨大,积极推进建筑节能非常必要。本文具体阐述了我省建筑节能工作面临的主要问题,并针对这些问题提出了切实可行的五条对策和建议。     

基于ANSYS的板料成型系统模内加热模块热分析

针对目前板料热成形过程中存在的能量浪费、板料氧化严重等缺点,文章对模内加热方案进行研究探讨,使用ANSYS-Icepack对板料冲压成形的模内加热温度场进行模拟分析,并以此基础做出实物并调试对比模拟状况。结果显示：对于该模架,上下模1 000 W的热源同时加热时,加热组块最高温度可达近400℃,中间板材可加热到300 qC以上,10min之后散热和加热接近平衡。按该模型设计的实际加热系统的温度分布与模拟基本接近。该研究对模内加热模块的设计进行了模拟与初步的试验,将有助于板料热成形技术方面发展。