家庭早期读写训练与儿童读写成绩间的关系研究

利用儿童家庭一学校早期语言和识字能力系列测验对每个目标儿童语言与识字能力发展进行了评定，并着重揭示了这些测量结果与儿童家庭语言、识字测量指标之间关系。结果表明：(1)家庭早期启发性谈话可以预测儿童完成定义任务和对熊故事进行建构的程度；(2)吃饭期间说明性和解释性谈话可预测儿童词汇量的发展状况和理解力；(3)书本阅读可预测儿童识字应变能力及对故事的理解和建构能力；(4)儿童早期玩具游戏与后来读写成绩之间无关。     

Smith's Sentiments (1759) and Wright's Passions (1601): the beginnings of sociology

Treatments of sources of Adam Smith's sociological theory of the self and associated ideas in The Theory of Moral Sentiments typically refer to classical antecedents or the work of his teacher Francis Hutcheson or his contemporary David Hume. During the seventeenth century, however, many books on the passions were published in London that arguably constitute an important but neglected source of Smith's treatment of moral sentiments. These works are largely forgotten today but at the time were widely read. They are not philosophical, partly devotional and predominantly psychological. Although Smith does not refer to these works his argument resembles theirs in many places. The importance of the seventeenth-century books on the passions, apart from their role in the history of psychology, is their bearing on contemporary economic practices. In this paper the connections between Smith and one of these books, Thomas Wright's The Passions of the Minde in Generall, are indicated.     

对"亚当·斯密问题"三个逻辑层面的解读

"亚当·斯密问题"有不同的逻辑层面.在个别层面上,斯密问题是他的经济与伦理学的关系;在特殊层面上,它是资本主义与资本主义伦理的关系;在普遍层面上,它是人类社会的经济与伦理的一般关系.在这些逻辑层面上,斯密问题经历了一个动态发展的历史过程.     

Management consulting and evaluation

The basic functions and procedures of management consulting are contrasted here with formal program evaluation. A case example further illustrates the differing approaches used in programmatic problem solving. The similarities and differences between these two professional specializations are highlighted in order to understand better the unique but complementary contribution each makes to the improvement of program operations.     

Sufficient dimension reduction through informative predictor subspace

The purpose of this paper is to define the central informative predictor subspace to contain the central subspace and to develop methods for estimating the former subspace. Potential advantages of the proposed methods are no requirements of linearity, constant variance and coverage conditions in methodological developments. Therefore, the central informative predictor subspace gives us the benefit of restoring the central subspace exhaustively despite failing the conditions. Numerical studies confirm the theories, and real data analyses are presented.     

失败的追寻:乔治·奥威尔的《1984年》解读

乔治·奥威尔的《1984年》是一部结束西方传统乌托邦小说的反乌托邦小说。主人公温斯顿对“真正的人的生活”的追寻与幻灭过程体现出奥威尔对传统乌托邦小说叙事模式的颠覆,籍此可以说《1984年》是反人文主义对人文主义的突破,是反乌托邦对乌托邦的解构。     

Small area estimation under unit-level temporal linear mixed models

Data from past time periods and temporal correlation are rich sources of information for estimating small area parameters at the current period. This paper investigates the use of unit-level temporal linear mixed models for estimating linear parameters. Two models are considered, with domain and domain-time random effects. The first model assumes time independency and the second one AR(1)-type time correlation. They are fitted by a Fisher-scoring algorithm that calculates the residual maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters. Based on the introduced models, empirical best linear unbiased predictors of small area linear parameters are studied, and analytic estimators for evaluating the performance of their mean squared errors are proposed. Three simulation experiments are carried out to study the behaviour of the fitting algorithm, the small area predictors and the estimators of the mean squared error. By using data of the Spanish surveys of income and living conditions of 2004–2008, an application to the estimation of 2008 average normalized net annual incomes in Spanish provinces by sex is given.     

再论亚当·斯密“经济人”假设的价值合理性（上）

斯密的“经济人”假设是建构在“自然秩序”和理性论哲学基础之上的,是斯密“自然秩序”伦理观在经济学中的运用和证明。“经济人”假设是对人的经济行为的一般性、本质性特征的理论抽象。无论是在理论层面还是在现实生活层面,无论是在经济学视野还是在伦理学视野,“经济人”假设都有其价值合理性和局限性。“经济人是理性的”,“经济人”还要受道德、法律的双重约束。     

Improvement of mixed predictors in linear mixed models

In this paper, we introduce stochastic-restricted Liu predictors which will be defined by combining in a special way the two approaches followed in obtaining the mixed predictors and the Liu predictors in the linear mixed models. Superiorities of the linear combination of the new predictor to the Liu and mixed predictors are done in the sense of mean square error matrix criterion. Finally, numerical examples and a simulation study are done to illustrate the findings. In numerical examples, we took some arbitrary observations from the data as the prior information since we did not have historical data or additional information about the data sets. The results show that this case does the new estimator gain efficiency over the constituent estimators and provide accurate estimation and prediction of the data.     

A COMPARISON OF ANALYSIS METHODS FOR LATE‐STAGE VARIETY EVALUATION TRIALS

The statistical analysis of late‐stage variety evaluation trials using a mixed model is described, with one‐ or two‐stage approaches to the analysis. Two sets of trials, from Australia and the UK, were used to provide realistic scenarios for a simulation study to evaluate the different methods of analysis. This study showed that a one‐stage approach gave the most accurate predictions of variety performance overall or within each environment, across a range of models, as measured by mean squared error of prediction or realized genetic gain. A weighted two‐stage approach performed adequately for variety predictions both overall and within environments, but a two‐stage unweighted approach performed poorly in both cases. A generalized heritability measure was developed to compare methods.