Small area estimation under unit-level temporal linear mixed models

Data from past time periods and temporal correlation are rich sources of information for estimating small area parameters at the current period. This paper investigates the use of unit-level temporal linear mixed models for estimating linear parameters. Two models are considered, with domain and domain-time random effects. The first model assumes time independency and the second one AR(1)-type time correlation. They are fitted by a Fisher-scoring algorithm that calculates the residual maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters. Based on the introduced models, empirical best linear unbiased predictors of small area linear parameters are studied, and analytic estimators for evaluating the performance of their mean squared errors are proposed. Three simulation experiments are carried out to study the behaviour of the fitting algorithm, the small area predictors and the estimators of the mean squared error. By using data of the Spanish surveys of income and living conditions of 2004–2008, an application to the estimation of 2008 average normalized net annual incomes in Spanish provinces by sex is given.     

A COMPARISON OF ANALYSIS METHODS FOR LATE‐STAGE VARIETY EVALUATION TRIALS

The statistical analysis of late‐stage variety evaluation trials using a mixed model is described, with one‐ or two‐stage approaches to the analysis. Two sets of trials, from Australia and the UK, were used to provide realistic scenarios for a simulation study to evaluate the different methods of analysis. This study showed that a one‐stage approach gave the most accurate predictions of variety performance overall or within each environment, across a range of models, as measured by mean squared error of prediction or realized genetic gain. A weighted two‐stage approach performed adequately for variety predictions both overall and within environments, but a two‐stage unweighted approach performed poorly in both cases. A generalized heritability measure was developed to compare methods.     

Synthesising Gellner,Smith, and Barth: building a preliminary analytical framework for exploring the relationships between ethnic groups,nations, and nationalism

This review article synthesises Gellner's, Smith's, and Barth's ideas about ethnic groups and nations. It redefines the concepts of the ethnic group, nation, and nationalism. An ethnic group can be defined as a group of people who are self-differentiated from other groups. A nation can be defined as an ethnic group or groups politically mobilised by elite-made nationalism. Furthermore, nationalism can be defined as an ideology which demands that an ethnic group or groups should have their own state. In effect, a conceptual framework is formulated, although how useful the framework can be is subject to further empirical research.     

亚当·斯密的法理学——“斯密问题”的一个解

在"苏格兰启蒙"的思想运动中,亚当.斯密是一个不可或缺的代表角色,他的思想或明或隐地影响着我们,虽然他更多地属于文化史上的角色,但是一些现实的问题仍让我们觉得重回斯密理论体系才能有一个更深刻的理解。"斯密问题"虽然最早由德国历史学派的经济学家于19世纪末提出并用来质疑斯密两部著作《道德情操论》和《国富论》背后的理论冲突,但对这个问题的讨论同样有益于我们对现实生活中经济发展与社会道德关系的深入理解。     

斯密和李斯特生产力思想之比较研究

斯密和李斯特是政治经济学说史上的重要人物。目前学术界对于二者生产力思想的研究仍有一些空白和薄弱环节。从国民财富得以增进的原因的角度考察,斯密和李斯特的生产力思想既有相近的地方,也有一定程度的差异,但分歧似乎并没有我们想象的那么大。二者生产力思想的这种异同,不仅揭示了思想所由产生的特定文化传统和国家境遇,而且也表明各个国家发展生产力应该遵循一定的共同规律。     

Predicting Consumption Poverty using Non-Consumption Indicators: Experiments using Indonesian Data

Household consumption expenditure data is crucial for calculating important welfare measures such as poverty headcount rate. However, collecting such data is difficult and cumbersome. As an alternative, we experiment with three methods – consumption correlates model, poverty probability model, and wealth index principal components analysis (PCA) – to predict consumption expenditure and poverty using non-consumption indicators. The purpose is to use these alternatives for rapid monitoring and appraisal of social welfare as an early warning system. We test each method’s performance and find that the consumption correlates model is the best method to predict poverty quickly and relatively accurately. We find that education level, asset ownership, and consumption pattern are the best predictors of expenditure and poverty.     

亚当·斯密的正义观

亚当.斯密的正义思想丰富而深刻。斯密的正义具有强制性、自然性,是自由的前提和社会存在的基础;斯密的正义也具有其局限性。哈耶克的正义思想以及现代社会所倡导的分配正义、起点公正等都是对斯密思想的继承和创新。     

Modeling proportions and marginal counts simultaneously for clustered multinomial data with random cluster sizes

Clustered multinomial data with random cluster sizes commonly appear in health, environmental and ecological studies. Traditional approaches for analyzing clustered multinomial data contemplate two assumptions. One of these assumptions is that cluster sizes are fixed, whereas the other demands cluster sizes to be positive. Randomness of the cluster sizes may be the determinant of the within-cluster correlation and between-cluster variation. We propose a baseline-category mixed model for clustered multinomial data with random cluster sizes based on Poisson mixed models. Our orthodox best linear unbiased predictor approach to this model depends only on the moment structure of unobserved distribution-free random effects. Our approach also consolidates the marginal and conditional modeling interpretations. Unlike the traditional methods, our approach can accommodate both random and zero cluster sizes. Two real-life multinomial data examples, crime data and food contamination data, are used to manifest our proposed methodology.