当代西方孤独感研究进展

西方学者近30年来对孤独感的研究主要涉及对孤独感概念和理论的探讨、孤独感测量工具的编制、孤独感预测指标的测量和影响因素的分析、孤独感应付方式等内容.尽管西方学者关于孤独感的研究取得了丰硕的成果,但该领域的研究仍是不成熟的.     

The Critical Theorist's Labour: Empirical or Philosophical Historiography for International Relations?

Abstract

Robert Cox developed a potent approach to studying world orders that is premised on the capacities of a special intellectual, the critical theorist, to discern social structures and the possibilities for their radical change in the future. While acknowledging the ethical appeal of adopting this intellectual persona, in this paper we are concerned with the style of historiography that it requires. In particular, we argue that the imperative to discover and foster the beginnings of social change leads to a version of philosophical history that will likely produce systematic anachronism. This is not uncommon in the discipline of International Relations, but in the case of Cox it stands in tension with some of his avowed intellectual sources, especially the work of Giambattista Vico, and with the aim of providing critical historical perspective on the present. We argue that Vico stands as an example of an alternative historical-empirical line of research that would better serve Coxian ambitions.     

紧密型县域医共体政府监管的问题探析和对策研究

紧密型县域医共体(简称紧密型医共体)是我国现阶段进一步深化医药卫生体制改革、落实分级诊疗制度的重要路径和关键举措。文章基于紧密型医共体的监管现状,以史密斯模型理论为框架,从政策目标、执行机构、目标群体和外部环境四个方面对紧密型医共体的监管困境及问题进行剖析。结果显示,政策目标模糊、执行机构协调性不足、经济与技术环境作用有限等因素一定程度上影响了紧密型医共体监管效果。针对存在问题,应完善监管政策体系、明确执行主体权责、促进目标群体参与、优化社会技术环境来推动紧密型医共体的高质量发展。     

Copula-based predictions in small area estimation

Unit-level regression models are commonly used in small area estimation (SAE) to obtain an empirical best linear unbiased prediction of small area characteristics. The underlying assumptions of these models, however, may be unrealistic in some applications. Previous work developed a copula-based SAE model where the empirical Kendall's tau was used to estimate the dependence between two units from the same area. In this article, we propose a likelihood framework to estimate the intra-class dependence of the multivariate exchangeable copula for the empirical best unbiased prediction (EBUP) of small area means. One appeal of the proposed approach lies in its accommodation of both parametric and semi-parametric estimation approaches. Under each estimation method, we further propose a bootstrap approach to obtain a nearly unbiased estimator of the mean squared prediction error of the EBUP of small area means. The performance of the proposed methods is evaluated through simulation studies and also by a real data application.     

An effective approach to linear calibration estimation with its applications

Abstract

The availability of some extra information, along with the actual variable of interest, may be easily accessible in different practical situations. A sensible use of the additional source may help to improve the properties of statistical techniques. In this study, we focus on the estimators for calibration and intend to propose a setup where we reply only on first two moments instead of modeling the whole distributional shape. We have proposed an estimator for linear calibration problems and investigated it under normal and skewed environments. We have partitioned its mean squared error into intrinsic and estimation components. We have observed that the bias and mean squared error of the proposed estimator are function of four dimensionless quantities. It is to be noticed that both the classical and the inverse estimators become the special cases of the proposed estimator. Moreover, the mean squared error of the proposed estimator and the exact mean squared error of the inverse estimator coincide. We have also observed that the proposed estimator performs quite well for skewed errors as well. The real data applications are also included in the study for practical considerations.     

Some characteristics of moral problems in evaluation practice

In order to understand better the nature of moral problems in evaluation, an actual incident from evaluation practice is examined. Based on the incident, six characteristics of moral problems are identified and briefly discussed. The types of research needed on moral aspects of evaluation practice are presented, and ways in which the evaluation profession can aid practitioners in dealing with moral problems are outlined.     

自适应Smith预估极点配置自效正PI控制器

对具有大惯性、大纯时延、变参数的过程控制对象，提出了一种带有自适应Ｓｍｉｔｈ预估的极点配置的自效正ＰＩ控制方案，以１０ｔ／ｈ链条炉作为控制对象，通过数字仿真，并与常规 ＰＩ比较，证明了该方案比常规ＰＩ有更好的控制性能。     

Trust responsiveness. On the dynamics of fiduciary interactions

Trust and trustworthiness are key elements, both at the micro and macro level, in sustaining the working of modern economies and their institutions. However, despite its centrality, trust continues to be considered as a “conceptual bumblebee”, it works in practice but not in theory. In particular, its behavioural rationale still represents a puzzle for traditional rational choice theory and game theory. In this paper “trust responsiveness”, an alternative explanatory principle that can account for trustful and trustworthy behaviour, is proposed. Such principle assumes that people can be motivated to behave trustworthily by trustful actions. The paper discusses the philosophical roots, the historical development, as well as the relational nature of this principle as well as its theoretical implications.     

The concept of risk unbiasedness in statistical prediction

This paper extends the concept of risk unbiasedness for applying to statistical prediction and nonstandard inference problems, by formalizing the idea that a risk unbiased predictor should be at least as close to the “true” predictant as to any “wrong” predictant, on the average. A novel aspect of our approach is measuring closeness between a predicted value and the predictant by a regret function, derived suitably from the given loss function. The general concept is more relevant than mean unbiasedness, especially for asymmetric loss functions. For squared error loss, we present a method for deriving best (minimum risk) risk unbiased predictors when the regression function is linear in a function of the parameters. We derive a Rao–Blackwell type result for a class of loss functions that includes squared error and LINEX losses as special cases. For location-scale families, we prove that if a unique best risk unbiased predictor exists, then it is equivariant. The concepts and results are illustrated with several examples. One interesting finding is that in some problems a best unbiased predictor does not exist, but a best risk unbiased predictor can be obtained. Thus, risk unbiasedness can be a useful tool for selecting a predictor.     

Bayes Estimates for the Price and Income Elasticities of Alcoholic Beverages in Finland From 1955 to 1980

The Lindley–Smith theory of Bayes estimates for multiple regression equations with exchangeability between the regression coefficients of the individual equations is extended to the case in which a first-order autoregressive process generates the regression coefficients. The ensuing formulas are applied to study monthly Finnish consumption of alcohol. The point of this application is that exchangeability between the regression coefficients is less than we can assess beforehand when there is a natural ordering, in this case according to chronological time, of the equations. Still, the general task of the Lindley–Smith estimators, to consider the combined data when estimating individual regression coefficients, is a relevant one.