Forecasting Accuracy of Alternative Techniques: A Comparison of U.S. Macroeconomic Forecasts

This article introduces and discusses a new measure of the relative economic affluence (REA) between income distributions with different means. The REA measure D is applied to the U.S. white and black household income distributions of 1967 and 1979. The measure D shows that the REA of the white households with respect to the black households decreased from 1967 to 1979. This conclusion contrasts with those obtained by applications of distance or quasi-distance functions. It is shown in this study that REA measures and distance functions address different and relevant issues. An REA measure deals with the relation “more affluent than” and defines a partial strict ordering over the set of pairs of income distributions—that is, the relation is asymmetric and transitive—whereas a distance function accounts for the dissimilarity between distributions without imposing an ordering relation and hence fulfills the symmetry property.     

Two-Step Estimation of Incomplete Information Social Interaction Models With Sample Selection

ABSTRACT

This article considers linear social interaction models under incomplete information that allow for missing outcome data due to sample selection. For model estimation, assuming that each individual forms his/her belief about the other members’ outcomes based on rational expectations, we propose a two-step series nonlinear least squares estimator. Both the consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator are established. As an empirical illustration, we apply the proposed model and method to National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health) data to examine the impacts of friendship interactions on adolescents’ academic achievements. We provide empirical evidence that the interaction effects are important determinants of grade point average and that controlling for sample selection bias has certain impacts on the estimation results. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Communicating intersectionality through creative claims making: the queer undocumented immigrant project

ABSTRACT

Social movements confronting overlapping inequalities face the unique challenge of elucidating the heretofore invisible experiences of those whose identities lie at the intersection of existing movements. Social media platforms provide a direct outlet for intersectional social movements to make political claims visually by illuminating these complexities creatively with discursive resources such as symbols, text, and narratives. Using content analysis of images posted to the organization’s Facebook, we examine how lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer (LGBTQ) immigration activists – as embodied by the Queer Undocumented Immigrant Project (QUIP) – attempt to communicate intersectionality online. Images posted by QUIP demonstrate how the existing ideas and values of separate established immigrant and LGBTQ movements can be reformulated and repackaged. However, the available discursive resources may compartmentalize identities, which then requires movements to generate new symbols, text, and narratives. By leveraging extant discursive resources and innovating new expressions, activists aim to communicate intersectional experiences and unite multiple struggles.     

The multiethnic state-building dilemma: national and ethnic minorities' identities in the Crimea

This article examines the process of national identity formation among ethnic minorities in the Crimea – specifically, how a new common identity develops in the system of existing identities, what meaning group identities have for different minorities group and how this process influences attitudes and stereotypes toward the ingroup and outgroup. Based on surveys in the Crimea, results show that formation of a common national and regional identity leads to developing of positive stereotypes toward members of other groups, who now are involved in a new group identity, but also is connected with formation of negative attitudes and stereotypes toward other groups. The meaning of identity depends on its position in the system of identities and can be used as a criterion for early warning of conflicts.     

Exposure to occupational violence and the buffering effects of intra-oranizational support

This paper presents a conceptually distinct analysis of the data first reported by Leather et al. Specifically, it investigates the effects of exposure to a variety of forms of work-related violence upon work attitudes and general well-being within a sample of UK public house licensees—individuals who manage public houses and hold the licence permitting the sale of alcoholic drinks on the premises. In addition, it examines the role of social support in moderating such effects. Based upon a sample of 242 licensees, it reports a consistent interaction between exposure to such violence and the availability of perceived intra-organizational support in determining the size of any negative effects upon individual well-being, job satisfaction and organizational commitment. It is argued that exposure to all forms of work-related violence, including intimidation, verbal abuse and threat, should be seen as a potential stressor within the work environment, the negative effects of which are buffered by perceived support from within the organization, but not by that perceived to be available from informal sources such as family and friends.     

组织信息资源管理论纲

本文在简要分析现代组织管理环境基本特点的基础上,对社会组织的信息资源管理的功能、原则及其运作等若干问题进行了认真的探讨,以期进一步完善现代组织管理理论。     

基层社会中伦理精神民主的塑造

当今中国正处于社会转型期,从传统的计划经济时代向现代市场经济时代过渡,人民的生活水平得到了显著提高,精神需求随着经济的发展亦得以提升,社会主义基层民主的发展正是人们精神意识的升华,现阶段伦理精神民主的塑造被提到一个新的高度。在广大农村,农民伦理精神民主意识的不断增强推动基层公务人员行政伦理建设的步伐,加大了基层社会中伦理精神民主塑造的力度。     

自然人群的规模及其形成的一些属性 ———来自皖南山区村落人际关系的社会网络分析

人群的"量化"的元素和形式化的特征是社会研究的重点,这些问题在中国农村发展的实践领域如农民组织建设过程中却常被忽略了.文章以社会网络分析方法对自然村落中自然人群的规模和其一些基本构成属性进行研究,发现地缘、情趣、性别和年龄等基本属性在很大程度上影响个体交往的对象和规模,这些特征也是农村发展的干预过程中应该注意到的重要社会特征.     

当代资本主义经济停滞问题:制度结构与治理危机——基于积累的社会结构理论的分析

关于经济停滞问题的探讨是对马克思主义经济危机理论的传承。2008年金融危机爆发十余年,资本主义经济停滞趋于常态化。积累的社会结构理论从资本积累与支撑这一积累的制度环境之间的矛盾出发,发现了主流经济学探讨资本主义经济停滞所忽略的制度性因素。积累的社会结构学派沿着中间层次的路径,将2008年金融危机界定为系统性的结构危机,认为新自由主义SSA的失灵是此次经济停滞持续的原因。资本主义经济停滞引发欧美发达资本主义国家的社会治理危机升级,一系列政治、社会和文化危机不断加剧。积累的社会结构理论从微观层面深刻把握了资本主义制度转型的轨迹,但并未深入探讨开展根本的制度变革。在面临百年未有之大变局的时代境遇下,中国在参与全球治理的过程中不断探索并推动世界经济政治新秩序朝着更加公正、合理的方向发展。     

社会抚养费征收法律规范中的问题与建议

我国现行社会抚养费征收法律规范在征收实践应用中显露出不尽适应计划生育工作和人口计划生育法治发展需要的问题,产生这些问题的原因主要在于征收制度功能定位不清晰、制度设计科学性不强、法律规范过于原则不具有可操作性。目前完善社会抚养费征收法律规范应突出法制统一、明确功能定位、体现社会公平和具有可操作性等原则,重点对法律规范中征收对象、标准、地域管辖和自由裁量权限等方面的内容加以完善。