中国的离婚率与社会结构变化分析

从中国的离婚率与社会结构变化的时间序列分析中可以看出 :离婚率随非农产业人口比重的提高而提高 ,并有三年的时滞 ;离婚率也和人口城市化的发展有密切的关系 ,两者的比重一并提高 ,但约有五年的时滞。因这两方面社会结构的变化 ,直接影响妇女就业率提高和妇女职业结构的变化 ,而由此引起的人口迁移流动的大变动 ,也必然影响婚姻家庭观念的变化     

陈独秀五四时期文学观念的正、反、合

文章运用还原研究的方法 ,返回到陈独秀“五四”时期理论建设原始形态中去 ,对其功利主义和审美论的文学观念进行理论探讨 ,在此基础上提出了陈独秀两种看起来自相矛盾的文学观念统一于“人的解放”的新见解。文章有意识地将陈独秀与“五四”一代人的理论倡导和实践联系在一起进行考察 ,企盼借此为人们认识和理解陈独秀以至整个“五四”新文学理论建设中的“二律背反”现象 ,提供一个通解     

工业革命时期英国卫斯理宗(1740-1840)

卫斯理宗(又称循道宗)诞生于18世纪的英国,它是国教牧师约翰·卫斯理创立的,卫斯理宗既是一场宗教革命--福音主义运动,又是一场声势浩大的群众运动,广泛地影响了英国工业革命前后时期的社会生活,具有巨大的社会整合功能.     

Size and duration of empires growth-decline curves, 3000 to 600 b.c.

Area changes of about 30 best known empires and states are compiled and tabulated. Superimposed and juxtaposed graphs (size versus time) help to visualize the relative size and location in time of these empires. Size-time integral, maximum stable size, adulthood date, and duration are defined operationally and are listed for 20 empires. A criterion is given for distinctness of successive empires. The size-time integral is a direct measure of an empire's impact on history insofar as that impact depends on sheer size and duration. The integral is largest for the Chinese Hsia-Shang, Egyptian New, Old, and Middle, Assyrian New, and Hittite empires. A world-wide territorial concentration index is tabulated. It increases during the period considered from 0.08 to 1.4% of the world dry land area.     

Estimating chance reproducibility in Guttman Scaling

A definition of reproducibility in Guttman Scaling and two chance measures of reproducibility are suggested. The first measure assumes that the items are independent. The second method assumes nonindependent items and fits respondent and item margins by an iterative method used in fitting log-linear models. Chance reproducibility is conceptualized in terms of assumptions about respondent variability.     

Assessing the devolution revolution: How accurate are state-level estimates from the current population survey

The devolution of many social policy responsibilities from the Federal government to states has prompted increased interest in state-level measures of need. One data source that could be used to provide more state-level information on a variety of topics is the Current Population Survey (CPS). During the past ten years the CPS has been used to produce state-level estimates on a variety of measures. However, there has been little systematic evaluation of these data. This paper provides measures of accuracy for several state-level estimates derived from the CPS. These include standard errors for single-year estimates, three-year averages, and five-year averages of the March CPS measures; standard errors for three-year averages of 12-month CPS files; and comparison of CPS-based estimates to data from the Decennial Census. The paper also examines the relative accuracy of CPS estimates based on states' size. The information in this study will help analysts better understand the tradeoffs between timeliness and accuracy to be considered when using state-level estimates derived from the CPS.     

一类有理分式的积分

本文介绍了一类有理分式的积分,并得到了一组织分公式。     

Demographic Differentials and Demographic Integration of Turkish and Kurdish Populations in Turkey

The objectives of the study are threefold: (1) to provide estimates of the total populations and spatial distributions of different language groups in Turkey, (2) to test whether the commonly held belief that Turkish-speaking and Kurdish-speaking populations are “actors” of different demographic regimes is true, and (3) to assess whether a process of integration, in the form of intermarriage of Turks and Kurds is under way in Turkey. Data come mainly from the 2003 Turkish Demographic and Health Survey (TDHS-2003). Based on the assumption that the mother tongue composition of women is also representative of that of the whole population, the results of the TDHS-2003 imply that of the population of Turkey, 83% are Turkish-speaking, 14% are Kurdish-speaking, 2% are Arabic-speaking and the remaining 1% belong to other language groups. Results show that despite intensive internal migration movements in the last 50 years, strong demographic differentials exist between Turkish and Kurdish-speaking populations, and that the convergence of the two groups does not appear to be a process under way. Turks and Kurds do indeed appear to be actors of different demographic regimes, at different stages of demographic and health transition processes.     

中国苹果主产省内市场整合程度研究——以陕鲁两省为例

市场整合程度是研究市场运行效率的重要方面。利用1999年1月到2005年12月的旬价格数据,运用协整检验法和误差修正模型(ECM)对中国苹果产量最大的两个省份省内各地市场进行整合程度的分析。结果表明,两省内各地苹果市场分别具有长期整合的趋势。短期整合程度明显低于长期整合程度,但山东省内各地苹果市场的短期整合程度要高于陕西。     

我国水彩艺术的水墨化进程

水彩艺术,历经几代人的努力——借鉴东西方水彩画传统,使东西方水彩艺术融合,形成相互补充的态势。近年来我国的水彩艺术虽然取得了较大的发展,但和其他画种比较而言,仍处于"边缘化"。中国水彩画在借鉴和继承西洋水彩画传统精华的同时,只有立足于本土文化,将东方传统艺术精髓融入水彩画艺术语言,才能使水彩画成为一门真正的"临界艺术",水彩画才有可能在我国得到更大的发展。