社区安全与环境设计--在"可防卫空间"之后

社区犯罪历来都被认为与社区实质环境之间存在直接的关系,本文回顾了近40年来与社区安全有关的环境行为研究后发现,可防卫空间、建筑规模、土地使用和空间结构等实体要素与犯罪和居民的安全感之间有密切联系,它们的关系是复杂的多层次的,而且还受到了社区的社会结构、认知和管理等多方面的影响。     

证券投资管理专业人才需求分析与人才规格设计

随着经济体制改革的深化,社会经济生活中对投融资的需求日益旺盛,大中型企业转机建制、民营企业谋求发展将更加依赖资本市场,证券业因此成为我国新兴行业,证券人才需求不仅空间巨大,而且呈现明显的层次性,既需要高层次的决策者、管理者,更需要具有较强职业技能的管理、服务第一线的应用性人才。证券投资管理专业应据此确定人才培养目标和人才培养规格。     

21世纪的美国社会保障:趋势与借鉴

美国社会保障的未来趋势是：预期寿命延长、劳动力数量增长缓慢、退休人数增加、退休年龄不断提前，这些共同加剧了社会保障收支不平衡状况，企业成为社会保障的生力军，社会保障事业出现私有化和私营化苗头。其借鉴意义：重视预期寿命延长对社会保障的压力，及早为延长退休年龄做好准备工作，重新定位企业在社会保障制度中的地位，改善社会保障的管理工作。     

Bayesian analysis of directed graphs data with applications to social networks

Summary.  A fully Bayesian analysis of directed graphs, with particular emphasis on applica- tions in social networks, is explored. The model is capable of incorporating the effects of covariates, within and between block ties and multiple responses. Inference is straightforward by using software that is based on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Examples are provided which highlight the variety of data sets that can be entertained and the ease with which they can be analysed.     

Gay Affirmative Practice: A Model for Social Work Practice with Gay,Lesbian, and Bisexual Youth

Gay affirmative practice has recently been introduced into the social work literature as a culturally sensitive model for working with gay, lesbian, and bisexual (GLB) adults, however, this model has rarely been applied to practice with GLB youth. In this article, the authors review the literature to present the main tenets of gay affirmative practice, outline the challenges that GLB youth face, and delineate the environmental and individual strengths that can be enhanced to promote well-being. The authors then apply the gay affirmative practice model to GLB youth, offering concrete information about the specific knowledge, attitudes, and skills that social workers should acquire to better serve the unique, yet diverse, needs of GLB youth.     

民族自治地方农村养老问题与对策初探——以黔东南州锦屏县为例

民族自治地方农村养老工作与构建社会主义和谐社会、社会主义新农村建设、“三农”问题等紧密相关，养老工作能否解决好直接影响到农村的社会稳定、社会的和谐发展和“三农”问题的解决。民族自治地方农村经济相对落后、经济发展不平衡、人口分布不均衡、农村老年人口日益增多、农民工大量外出等现实，给传统养老方式带来了历史性的冲击。这要求建立具有时代特色和地方特色的养老方式。本文在进行充分的实地调查、分析黔东南苗族侗族自治州锦屏县农村现行的养老方式现状、养老方式存在问题的基础上，结合当地实际情况和借鉴其他地方的成功养老方式，提出具体可行的对策。     

Communicating Global Activism

Many observers doubt the capacity of digital media to change the political game. The rise of a transnational activism that is aimed beyond states and directly at corporations, trade and development regimes offers a fruitful area for understanding how communication practices can help create a new politics. The Internet is implicated in the new global activism far beyond merely reducing the costs of communication, or transcending the geographical and temporal barriers associated with other communication media. Various uses of the Internet and digital media facilitate the loosely structured networks, the weak identity ties, and the patterns of issue and demonstration organizing that define a new global protest politics. Analysis of various cases shows how digital network configurations can facilitate: permanent campaigns; the growth of broad networks despite relatively weak social identity and ideology ties; transformation of individual member organizations and whole networks; and the capacity to communicate messages from desktops to television screens. The same qualities that make these communication-based politics durable also make them vulnerable to problems of control, decision-making and collective identity.     

对社会工作的现状调查与分析——以绍兴市为例

对绍兴139名社会工作的管理和从业人员进行了调查,发现绍兴市社会工作存在人才数量不够、素质不高、结构不合理,社会管理中介组织发展缓慢以及管理政策不配套等三个方面的主要问题。为加强社会工作,应从加强组织领导、健全各项机制、培育民间组织、加强宣传引导等四个方面入手。     

对班主任工作的思考

本文根据笔者工作中的实践经验,从“全面了解学生情况、培养学生自信心、建立良好班风、建立班集体目标、重视学生心理健康教育、做好学生思想工作、客观公平对待学生、重视素质教育、沟通学校、家庭、社会三方面的教育”九个方面分析论证了班主任工作是一项研究人、影响人、教育人和塑造人的系统工程,它在实现学校办学目的、教育目标、教学功能等方面起着非常重要的作用。     

Using Probabilistic Terrorism Risk Modeling for Regulatory Benefit-Cost Analysis: Application to the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative in the Land Environment

This article presents a framework for using probabilistic terrorism risk modeling in regulatory analysis. We demonstrate the framework with an example application involving a regulation under consideration, the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative for the Land Environment, (WHTI‐L). First, we estimate annualized loss from terrorist attacks with the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Probabilistic Terrorism Model. We then estimate the critical risk reduction, which is the risk‐reducing effectiveness of WHTI‐L needed for its benefit, in terms of reduced terrorism loss in the United States, to exceed its cost. Our analysis indicates that the critical risk reduction depends strongly not only on uncertainties in the terrorism risk level, but also on uncertainty in the cost of regulation and how casualties are monetized. For a terrorism risk level based on the RMS standard risk estimate, the baseline regulatory cost estimate for WHTI‐L, and a range of casualty cost estimates based on the willingness‐to‐pay approach, our estimate for the expected annualized loss from terrorism ranges from $2.7 billion to $5.2 billion. For this range in annualized loss, the critical risk reduction for WHTI‐L ranges from 7% to 13%. Basing results on a lower risk level that results in halving the annualized terrorism loss would double the critical risk reduction (14–26%), and basing the results on a higher risk level that results in a doubling of the annualized terrorism loss would cut the critical risk reduction in half (3.5–6.6%). Ideally, decisions about terrorism security regulations and policies would be informed by true benefit‐cost analyses in which the estimated benefits are compared to costs. Such analyses for terrorism security efforts face substantial impediments stemming from the great uncertainty in the terrorist threat and the very low recurrence interval for large attacks. Several approaches can be used to estimate how a terrorism security program or regulation reduces the distribution of risks it is intended to manage. But, continued research to develop additional tools and data is necessary to support application of these approaches. These include refinement of models and simulations, engagement of subject matter experts, implementation of program evaluation, and estimating the costs of casualties from terrorism events.